2000-2020
When looking at the price chart of Atul Auto Limited (quote here) from 2000 to 2020, it is apparent that disaster is looming on the horizon.
2008-2020
After all, the stock price has declined from a high of 704.90 to the current level of 168.05, or a loss of -76.16%.
2003-2009
However, markets are driven by precedent and the price action that we’re currently seeing is not the first time that the stock price has suffered such a decline.
As seen in the period from the 2005 peak to the 2009 low, Atul Auto Limited declined as much as -89.54%.
What does this mean?
From our experience, this suggests that the low of 117.65, -83.30% from the 704.90 peak, was well within what could be considered “normal” price action for this particular stock. Additionally, if the price were to decline to the 89.54% level, we know that 73.73 is the exact price that could be achieved.
Risk Considerations
How do we like to think about high risk scenarios like that of Atul Auto Limited (if you MUST invest)?
- Our first assumption is to accept that it will fall to zero. This forces us to allocate only the capital that we’re willing to lose completely.
- Whatever we’re willing to lose, we split the position into two. Once at the current price and another at a price below the 117.65 low.
- If the price doesn’t fall below 117.65 then we move on.
- Do not assume that the price will recover to the prior high 704.90. At best, the best case scenario is an increase to 411.28.
- This stock is not for the faint of heart. This means that watching and learning to see if this analysis is right or wrong is superior to putting money in and being right.
Prior Example of the Same “Analysis”
- Ethereum (declined -93% as projected)
