Author Archives: nlo-admin

Steinhoff International Holdings

According to Wikipedia, “Steinhoff International is a South African international retail holding company that is dual listed in Germany. Steinhoff deals mainly in furniture and household goods, and operates in Europe, Africa, Asia, the United States, Australia and New Zealand.”  However, the stock chart tells us so much more about Steinhoff (SNH).

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According to the Financial Times:

“…investigators are focusing on ‘certain off-balance sheet structures and transactions, including those with certain closely related parties’, and mostly involve Steinhoff's ‘central European’ business (Mark Vandevelde, Joseph Cotterill, and Dan McCrum. “Focus shifts to lending units in Steinhoff investigation”. Financial Times. London. April 9, 2018. page 15.).”

In this instances, it appears that an off-balance sheet vehicle has contributed to the insurmountable losses of a once thriving retail empire.

Canadian Watch List: May 2018

Performance Review

Below is the performance of our Canadian Watch List dated May 14, 2017:

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The average change of the entire watch list was –7.48% compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange gain of approximately +4.48% over the same period of time.  Worth noting are the stocks that the analysts got right in the assessment last year.  Those stocks are BCE Inc. (BCE.TO), Cineplex (CGX.TO), and Emera (EMA.TO).

A Footnote Become a Front Page Item

This is how we always imagined the party to end.  Somewhere and somehow, an accounting footnote known as an off-balance sheet entity or item becomes a front and center issue.

Searching the internet for a definition of “off-balance-sheet entity” you will find a fairly credible source in Investopedia.  Their first sentence on the topic says it all, “Off-balance-sheet entities are complex transactions where theory and reality collide.”

“Off-balance-sheet entities are complex transactions where theory and reality collide.”

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Looking any further on this topic and you’ll find many of the most infamous financial collapses centered around off-balance sheet entities or items, and emanating from the darkest corners of the corporate world.  So when a municipality announces their inability to pay for an off-balance sheet item, it should get you interested.

Review: Consolidated Edison

On May 18, 2018, Consolidated Edison (ED) fell to a one year low.  This is a stock that we had evaluated back in September 2014, when ED was trading at $57.60.  At the time, we said the following:

“Based on the Altimeter,  ED is considered to be fairly valued at $54.18.  This fair value is strikingly similar to the Value Line [Investment Survey] assessment.  Also, according to the Altimeter, ED is considered undervalued at or below $44.00.  Since 1970, there have been six instances where ED has been undervalued and went to the opposite extreme of being overvalued.

Using the above Altimeter, our observation is that Consolidated Edison has had the tendency to decline from each peak to the corresponding undervalued level without exception.  Naturally, this may be the occasion when the exception occurs.  Until that time comes, we’re of the view that ED will decline to the lower ascending line by mid- to late 2015.  By that time, ED could be undervalued at the $50 level.”

Fast forward to the new 52-week low and we see ED trading at $73.55.  This begs the most obvious question, where did we go wrong?  After all, we missed out in nearly +78% of total returns in 4 years.  Below are the two most glaring errors that we made with many others waiting to be revealed.

Continue reading

BK Watch: Enduro Resource Partners

According to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Enduro Resource Partners filed for bankruptcy reorganization on May 17, 2018.

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In the article, it was mentioned that Enduro Royalty Trust (NDRO) was not included in the bankruptcy proceedings.  Below is the adjusted and unadjusted price of NDRO since inceptions.

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The adjusted price has declined by –59%.  However, since the January 21, 2016 low, NDRO has increased +211%.  It is worth noting that the decline in NDRO preceded the decline in West Texas Intermediate Oil (WTI), which did not collapse until mid-2014.

McKesson Corp Altimeter

Below is the Altimeter for McKesson Corporation as well as the performance data based on the buy indication offered by the Altimeter.  The average gain after six buy indications is +46.47%.

Sanderson Farms Altimeter

Below is a review of the Altimeter for Sanderson Farms.

Interest Rate Monitor: May 2018

Below are the revised downside targets base on the latest peak in interest rates.

Coppock Curve: Unum Group

On May 12, 2018, we presented the Altimeter for Unum Group (UNM).  In this post we’ll present the Coppock Curve for UNM and the price of the stock one year after the buy indication is provided.

Unum Altimeter

We’ve said many things about Unum Group (UNM) in the past.  What matters the most for us is the practical application of theories that we have put forward, theories commonly found in the work of Charles H. Dow and Edson Gould.  Below is a latest Altimeter for UNM and our useful prior commentary on the stock.

Middlesex Water Altimeter

We saw this article on ValueWalk suggesting that Middlesex Water (MSEX) is overvalued.

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After running the numbers found in Value Line Investment Survey from 1998 to the present, we couldn’t find a viable counter claim to the analysis of MSEX.  It does appear as though MSEX is overvalued at the current price. 

Below we have the Altimeter which reflects the relative value of the stock based on the history of dividend payments.  We’ve included potential downside targets for the stock where a review of the company fundamentals should be considered.

Dow Theory: Where Are We Now?

In this posting we’ll outline the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average within the context of the Dow Theory.  Additionally, we’ll see where we are in terms of the economy which Dow Theory is supposed to give some indication on.

Dogs of the Dow

Below is the performance of the individual Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents from December 29, 2017 to May 8, 2018 (intraday).

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Our examination of the Dogs of the Dow concept has upended our prior thinking on how to approach this investment strategy.  As we’ve seen, the original Dogs of the Dow has continued to prove an unfortunate investing process.  In addition, the data below shows that there is much to be learned on the road to beating the index.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: May 4, 2018

Prior Year Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from May 5, 2017 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2015 Price 2016 Price % change
SKT Tanger Factory Outlet Centers 28.63 20.77 -27.5%
GWW W.W. Grainger 189.23 286.77 51.5%
SCG SCANA Corporation 65.94 36.50 -44.6%
BMS Bemis Co Inc 45.38 42.73 -5.8%
SJM JM Smucker 126.08 113.31 -10.1%
      Average -7.3%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 21,006.94 24,262.51 15.5%
SPX S&P 500 2,399.29 2,663.42 11.0%

The average loss for the top five companies was 7.3%. Weighting down the list was SCANA Corporation (SCG) and Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT) who lost 44.6% and 27.5% respectively. We didn't foresee the extreme drop in price but did warned our reader on REIT. The excerpt below was our remark.

One should exercise extreme caution on Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). These include companies such as Tanger Factory (SKT) and SCANA (SCG). We believed that income investors entered this sector aggressively which makes the risk/reward profile at current level unattractive to us.

The best performing company of the top five was W.W.Grainger (GWW) with 51.5% gain. Our team was bullish on W.W. Grainger last year and was fortunate enough to get the timing right. As part of an elite group call Dividend Aristocrat, we believed that risk/reward was appropriate at the level we saw last year. However, there were companies in Dividend Aristocrat that went the opposite direction. AT&T (T) and Procter & Gamble (PG) lost 17% and 16% respectively.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: May 4, 2018

The market started the week at 2,680, dropped to 2,600 and closed the week at 2,660. The volatility is setting in but we see consolidation occurring. Our team continue to be mindful of the March low as the level to watch. If and when that level is breached, we will reassess our asset allocation between cash and equity holding. Below are companies for this week dividend watch list. Continue reading

Quick Take: Cardinal Health

On May 3, 2018, it was reported that Cardinal Health (CAH) declined –21% due to:

“…the company's loss of a contract with PharMerica and lower drug prices are responsible for the bearish outlook (TheStreet.com).”

The impact of these issues has resulted in lower 2019 earnings estimates for CAH.  Below are some thoughts on our expectations for CAH in the coming year.