In our posting from October 5, 2018, we failed to point out the estimated price that the December 4, 1998 Value Line Investment Survey had for Bank of Hawaii for the period of 2001-2003. This is a metric that all Value Line Investment Survey provides in the upper left-hand corner of their reports. For us, this helps in determining the quality of the estimates that are given by the publication.
At the time, Value Line has an upside target of $40 and a downside target of $30.
Our target price for the same 2001-2003 period was as follows:
As can be seen in the table above, the overvalued high level was $40.64 and the undervalued low level was $23.77. The chart below shows the change in the price of BOH from 1998 to the end of 2003.
As noted in the price chart, BOH achieved a closing price of $42.29, or thereabouts. This is instructive considering that the bear market from early 1999 to mid-2001 was not anticipated at all and resulted in BOH falling slightly more than –50%.
What is our verdict on Value Line Investment Survey estimates for Bank of Hawaii? They did a great job and came in under the actual number of the end of year 2003, in spite of the stock market crash.
Additionally, our estimated range of the stock price was equally as accurate with a more accurate expected low in the price as well as achieving the considerable upside target that followed.
