Below is the Coppock Curve for Realty Income (O): Continue reading
- Japan
- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
- Silver
- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
Coppock Curve: October 2020
Below is the Coppock Curve data for the following indexes as of the end of October 2020:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average
- Dow Jones Transportation Average
- Dow Jones Utility Average
- S&P 500
- Nasdaq Composite
- Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index
- Russell 2000
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
- iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF
- Toronto Stock Exchange
- Bitcoin
If you’re interested in a index not listed, let us know. Continue reading
On This Date: IPO of a Nation
On this date in 1620, the (Plymouth) Council for New England was chartered by the king of England as a joint stock company with monopoly rights on (found here):
“…all the Breadth aforesaid throughout the Maine Land, from Sea to Sea [emphasis ours], with all the Seas, Rivers, Islands, Creekes, Inletts, Ports, and Havens, within the Degrees…”
The profits should be derived from (found here):
“…the Firme Lands, Soyles, Grounds Havens, Ports, Rivers, Waters, Fishings, Mines, and Mineralls, as well Royall Mines of Gold and Silver, as other Mine and Mineralls, precious Stones, Quarries, and all, and singular other Comodities, Jurisdictions, Royalties, Priveliges, Franchises, and Preheminences…”
The payments of those profits should be paid to (found here):
“…Us [England’s Royalty], our Heires, our Successors, the fifth [20%] Part, of the Ores of Gold and Silver, which from time to time, and aft all times hereafter, shall happen to be found, gotten, had, and obtained, in or within any the said Lands, Limitts, Territoryes, and Precincts, or in or within any Part or Parcell thereof, for, or in Respect of all, and all Manner of Dutys, Demands, and Services whatsoever, to be done, made, or paid to Us, our Heires, and Successors.…”
By 1635, the charter for the Council of New England was revoked. However, within the time of the Council for New England’s existence, which later folded into the Massachusetts Bay Company and other corporate entities, the wheels of a new nation were put into motion.
U.S Dividend Watch List: October 30, 2020
Review last year’s list, we see that closest to the low was the best strategy which lost only 0.6%. The market, however, gained 6.6% since last year. Purchasing companies with low P/E or high dividend yield, a classic value approach, did not work out well.
| November 1, 2019 | ||
| Strategy | High | Low |
| Yield | -45.7% | -10.8% |
| P/E | -7.4% | -49.6% |
| Payout Ratio | -25.6% | -26.7% |
| P/B | -1.2% | -29.7% |
| Closest to Low | -0.6% | |
| S&P 500 | 6.6% | |
| Dow Jones Ind | -3.1% | |
| Top 5 companies except for Index |
||
Majority of the gained came from Clorox (CLX) gained 40.9% and CH Robinson (CHRW) gained 18.4%.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 9, 2020
The market pulled back from all-time high and consolidation period will be healthy for this up market to continue. The pull back pushed more companies closer to their yearly low.
Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
Tagged members
On This Date: Robert L. Rodriguez
On this date, in his letter to shareholder, Robert L. Rodriguez said the following:
"We believe the past six months is nothing more than consolidation after a period of superior performance. The overall market exhibits these same tendencies. Large capitalization stocks have outperformed smaller capitalization stocks. This is the reverse of 1991.
“With the cross currents of both a sluggish economic recovery and a national election, investors appear to be confused as to what market capitalization segment to focus on. We believe the trend towards investing in smaller capitalization stocks has experienced only a pause rather than a reversal.
“The recent severe underperformance by several ‘blue chip’ companies and the re-emergence of interest in small capitalization stock managers by pension funds convince us that the trend towards smaller stock investing is still intact. As capital is redeployed from larger stocks to smaller stocks, it will have an exponential impact."
Robert L. Rodriguez. FPA Capital Fund. “Letter to Shareholders”. November 1, 1992.
Posted in On This Day, Robert Rodriguez
Income Bellwethers: November 2019
In November 2019, Morningstar.com published their DividendInvestor which contains their Income Bellwether Watchlist. Below is the performance of the stocks based on the top highest and lowest dividend yield from October 9, 2019 to October 9, 2020.
As the data continues to demonstrate, low yield generally outperforms high yield. This has been resoundingly shown in our Dogs of the Dow in the period from 1996 to 2019.
see also:
Posted in Dogs of the Dow, Income Bellwethers, Morningstar
Secular Bear Markets and What Follows
Dow: 1906 to 1924
Dow: 1921 to 1929
- +504%
1966 to 1982
Dow: 1978 to 2000
- +1,478%
Dow: 2000 to 2016
Nasdaq: 2000 to 2016
We’re hopeful that a picture is worth a thousand words. However, if narrative is required then read our article title “Dow 130,000 by 2032”.
Posted in Uncategorized
U.S Dividend Watch List: October 9, 2020
We begin with a look back at last year’s list. The S&P 500 rose 18.3% and the Industrial rose 7.9%. Purchasing the top 5 companies closest to the low would result in a loss of 60.1% while the best strategy was to purchase top 5 companies with highest P/B ratio. One theme is clear from our data, the typical value metrics didn’t work well.
| October 11, 2019 | ||
| Strategy | High | Low |
| Yield | -58.2% | -7.3% |
| P/E | 6.1% | -60.1% |
| Payout Ratio | -34.5% | -20.7% |
| P/B | 18.4% | -20.1% |
| Closest to Low | -60.1% | |
| S&P 500 | 18.3% | |
| Dow Jones Ind | 7.9% | |
| Top 5 companies except for Index |
||
Under the high P/B, 2 best performers were Eli Lilly (LLY) & Clorox (CLX). Hindsight is 20/20 but wouldn’t we all want to own Clorox knowing a pandemic was on the horizon?
U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 9, 2020
The market picked up a slight momentum going into October and we’re seeing a push toward the high. This movement pushed a lot of companies out of their yearly low range but we managed to gather a list for this week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
Tagged members
Ball Corp. 10-Year Price Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Ball Corp. (BLL) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Morinaga & Co. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Morinaga & Co. (2201) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, Morinaga & Co.
Stryker Corp. 10-Year Targets
On January 3, 2019, we said the following of Stryker Corp.:
“According to Value Line Investment Survey, Stryker Corp. (SYK) has an expected price range of $200-$245 by 2021-2023. On our end, we have a range from as low as $126.96 to as high as $266.52 in the same period of time.”
On March 23, 2020, Stryker decline as low as $126.05 and closed at $126.50 as seen in the chart below.
Below are the valuation targets for Stryker Corp. (SYK) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
1937-1939: The Years of Investing Dangerously
After the fall in the market from February 2020 to March 2020, the most accurate question to ask is this:
After recovering so much for the March 2020 lows, what is the prior precedent for the market? As we said in our recent review of Atul Auto Limited:
“markets are driven by precedent and the price action that we’re currently seeing is not the first time that the stock price has suffered such a decline.”
The market is always on the hunt to drive investors mad and the best way to accomplish this is by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
To the question above, we have lined up the years of 1937-1939 as our first qualifying entry (there are more). In this two year period, the market experienced two bear markets (-20% or more) and two market corrections (-10% or more).
Make note of the fact that if this happened to the Dow Jones Industrial Average then it is likely that we could find the same with any market that existed at the same time, for obvious reasons.
See Also:
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Atul Auto Limited October 3, 2020
Atul Auto Limited Price Considerations
2000-2020
When looking at the price chart of Atul Auto Limited (quote here) from 2000 to 2020, it is apparent that disaster is looming on the horizon.
2008-2020
After all, the stock price has declined from a high of 704.90 to the current level of 168.05, or a loss of -76.16%.
2003-2009
However, markets are driven by precedent and the price action that we’re currently seeing is not the first time that the stock price has suffered such a decline.
As seen in the period from the 2005 peak to the 2009 low, Atul Auto Limited declined as much as -89.54%.
What does this mean?
From our experience, this suggests that the low of 117.65, -83.30% from the 704.90 peak, was well within what could be considered “normal” price action for this particular stock. Additionally, if the price were to decline to the 89.54% level, we know that 73.73 is the exact price that could be achieved.
Risk Considerations
How do we like to think about high risk scenarios like that of Atul Auto Limited (if you MUST invest)?
- Our first assumption is to accept that it will fall to zero. This forces us to allocate only the capital that we’re willing to lose completely.
- Whatever we’re willing to lose, we split the position into two. Once at the current price and another at a price below the 117.65 low.
- If the price doesn’t fall below 117.65 then we move on.
- Do not assume that the price will recover to the prior high 704.90. At best, the best case scenario is an increase to 411.28.
- This stock is not for the faint of heart. This means that watching and learning to see if this analysis is right or wrong is superior to putting money in and being right.
Prior Example of the Same “Analysis”
- Ethereum (declined -93% as projected)
Posted in Atul Auto
Kotak Mahindra Bank 10-Year Targets
Below are the price targets for Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited over the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, India, Kotak