Unvarnished Tweet Commentary and Analysis from February 20, 2022: Continue reading
- Japan
- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
- Silver
- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
U.S. Dividend Watch List: February 18, 2022
The market continue to push and pull this week as the S&P gave back nearly 1.5% for the week. Technical factor point to bearish market with the major index trading below 200 day moving average. Our proprietary market indicator confirm this sentiment. That being said, more opportunities to acquire great companies at great value rise as market trade in range. Below is the watch list for the week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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Twitter Tape: $ZM, Tech Stocks, Margin Debt
Unvarnished Tweet Commentary and Analysis from February 19, 2022: Continue reading
Twitter Tape: Unvarnished Tweet Commentary and Analysis For February 18, 2022
Unvarnished Tweet Commentary and Analysis from February 18, 2022: Continue reading
ARK Innovation Price Target Update
Below is an update to our March 5, 2021 downside targets for ARK Innovation based on the work of Edson Gould.
The targets, based on the $156.58 peak, continues to be at:
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$90.73 (conservative target)
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$71.98 (mid-range target)
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$53.23 (extreme target)
The red boxes indicate where the price either breaks above or below the prior support (now a resistance level). Currently, the ascending $71.98 level is a resistance which, if broken to the upside, will provide positive momentum to retest the ascending $90.73 level. Naturally, a break below the ascending $53.23 level usually results in that being the next target for the price of the ETF.
Posted in ARKK, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
Moderna Achieves Downside Targets
Below are the downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould using the high of $484.47.
This is a revision to the posting we did on July 20, 2021. At that time, the shares of Moderna were trading at $313.59 and we said:
“There is no indication that the price of Moderna Inc. has peaked. For this reason, the targets are tentative at best.”
After that posting, Moderna increased an additional +54.49%. In spite of the subsequent increase, Moderna has managed to fulfill 2/3 of the initial targets. The remaining target at $114.17 looks like a distinct possibility based on our update.
The targets, as noted in the chart above are:
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$215.83 (conservative target)
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$188.66 (mid-range target)
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$161.49 (extreme target)
The conclusion of the decline, as far as we’re concerned, would be at the ascending red line or approximately $109.18. We’re not buyers below this level. Our interest in the stock would only be for observation of price and fundamentals.
We want to remind readers of the fact that Moderna was added to the S&P 500 AFTER it had a run-up of +1,728% as compared to Alexion (ALXN) +54% gain over the same 2-year period. Alexion was the company that Moderna replaced in the Index.
Posted in MRNA
1939 Chart Review
Below are historical charts that begin or end with the year 1939:
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1939-1946: Commodities, DJIA
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1929-1939: On Dollar Cost Averaging
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1919-1939: Steel and Lumber Production
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1937-1939: Commodities and DJIA
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1939-1947: U.S. Gold Stock
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1500-1939: Silver-Price and Production
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1929-1939: NYSE Dividends and Yields
Nasdaq Composite Price Momentum
Below is a chart of the Nasdaq Composite from 1973-2022, reflecting Momentum data.
Dividend Yield vs Dividend Growth
There are healthy debates on dividend yield versus dividend growth. Investors seeking income will automatically gravitate toward dividend yield by default. While that intuition is good, we should pay attention to other aspects such as growth rate of the payment. In our quick study, we attempt to compare companies with similar business model and strong dividend history. There is not better comparison in our mind that Coke (KO) and Pepsi (PEP). We extracted 5 years data (2016-2021) dividend and price data for both companies from Yahoo Finance. The conclusion speaks for itself, we should pay more attention to dividend growth as a key indicator for capital appreciation.
Coke has higher dividend yield that Pepsi in 2016 and 2021. If an investor was to choose an income producing asset in 2016, they would gravitate toward Coke with 3.22% yield while Pepsi yield of 2.86%.
Now we look dividend payment growth rate. Pepsi raised their payment by 43% while Coke increased their payment by 20%.
Finally we review what happened to the stock price. We took the average price of both stocks for 2016 and 2021. The performance is clear that Pepsi outperformed Coke by a wide margin. This finding is consistent with the teaching of Geraldine Weiss in Dividends Don’t Lie that dividend is a proxy for profit growth.
Posted in Dividend Achievers, dividends
VIX Momentum Indicator
Below is a chart of the CBOE Volatility Index from 1992-2022, reflecting Momentum data.
Lennox International Price Momentum
Below is a chart of Lennox International (LII) from 2001-2022, reflecting Price Momentum data.
Starbucks Price Momentum
Below is a chart of Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) 1994-2022, reflecting Price Momentum data.
UBS Group Price Momentum
Below is a chart of UBS Group (UBS) from 2001 to 2022, reflecting Price Momentum data.
Transaction Alert
We executed the following transaction(s):
U.S. Dividend Watch List: February 4, 2022
It was a rough start to the year as market plunged 6% in January pushing one index below its yearly low. A market correction will naturally pull more companies toward their 52-week low and that’s exactly what we observe in our watch list. Below is the dividend watch list for this week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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