The market roared back this week rising 5.76% and is approaching the 4,000 mark. Based on the NLO Market Indicator, we thought a bounce would come and issued a buy indicator on June 14, 2022. There are still plenty of opportunities in the market over the long-term horizon and urge investors to start their research with companies on our watch list below. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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Below is the performance of MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) based on the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines from June 19, 2021.
Further declines seem likely based on the 2004-2008 declines. At minimum, a retest of the prior low should be expected.
Posted in Edson Gould, MKTX
Below are the valuation targets for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Below are the Upside Resistance Lines for Bitcoin based on the work of Edson Gould: Continue reading
Below are the valuation targets for Toronto-Dominion (TD.TO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Below is a chart of Illinois Tool Works (ITW) from 1990 to 2022, reflecting Price Momentum data. Continue reading
On Monday June 13, 2022, the market fell nearly 4% and triggered our Market Score down to –6. The last time we saw this was on March 12, 2020. Continue reading
We executed the following transaction(s):
On June 13, 2022 we bought: Continue reading
Below is a review of the downside targets for Bitcoin based on the work of Edson Gould. Continue reading
It was a choppy week for the market as the S&P 500 closed virtually flat but traded as high as 4,180 and as low as 4,080. That’s a 2% swing both ways in 4 days. We continue to see more opportunities emerges in the market and individual companies. Below is the dividend watch list for this week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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One of the thing long-term investors should be excited about when market correct is the ability to acquire great companies at lower price. That being said, timing the purchase is the most difficult things to achieve. A timing tool that’s worth considering is the Coppock Curve. We have written extensively about the Coppock Curve and you can find historical content here.
The Coppock Curve only provide a buying indicator and not sell, thus we have little to update on this indicator in recent months. However, recent market correction caused more companies to enter what we call, the research phase. This is when the indicator moved into negative territory but have not shown a buy signal. Before we go further, let us review the 8 companies and 1 ETF that was a buy according to the Coppock Curve at the end of December 2020. The chart below shows the performance since January 4, 2021 – June 3, 2022.
At the end of May 2022, these are companies that have enter the research phase and you should start your research on fundamental if you wish to acquire them in the near future. We will provide a monthly update and track when a buy signal is triggered. Continue reading
Below is a chart of ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) from 1964 to 2022, reflecting Price Momentum data.
A reader asks:
“What could trigger this downside? Just a technical ‘reversion to the mean’?”
Our response:
We are not sure of the catalysts that could trigger the move to the downside. As an example, this from September 7, 2015 on the prospects of where the price of oil would go:
"...lurking in the background is the extreme downside target of 575.41. Since our experience has been that the extreme downside target is commonly achieved, we hazard to guess what would happen globally to the oil market in order to decline to such a low point."
At the time, we had no clue that a pandemic was on the horizon. The only thing we had was the price and the potential for the downside bases on the work of Edson Gould. We can’t dispute the reversion to the mean reality. However, Gould's work on PRICE points to situations that are far beyond just mean reversion.
Another example was our April 26, 2012 posting titled “A Warning for Chesapeake Energy Stockholders.” Based on the work of Edson Gould, the indication was that:
“If CHK falls significantly below the $4.94 level, then the stock has a high likelihood of going all the way $0.67.”
At the time, Chesapeake Energy was trading at $18.10 and ultimately filed for bankruptcy on June 29, 2020.
Gould’s work on price highlights what S.A. Nelson (coined the term Dow’s Theory) has alluded to in the work of Charles H. Dow regarding the tendency for prices to not only mean revert but go to an extreme after achieving the mean. Nelson called it artificial advance and artificial depression. Our 2009 examination of this concept, which has developed greatly since, can be found here.
Thanks for the great question. We really appreciate the feedback.
see also:
Posted in Charles H. Dow, CHK, Crude Oil, Edson Gould, S.A Nelson
This posting will cover the downside targets for West Texas Intermediate Crude using Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Targets.
Posted in Crude Oil, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, WTI
Below is a chart of West Texas Intermediate from 1988 to 2022, reflecting Price Momentum data.
Posted in Crude Oil, Price Momentum, WTI