Below is the 8-year performance of our Dividend Watch List from November 13, 2009 to November 14, 2017 as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Posted in NLO analysis, Uncategorized
On October 13, 2017, when Bitcoin was quoted at $5,640, we said the following:
“We are throwing in the towel on taking the $7,166.29 [our upside target] figure, and any future upside targets that go uncorrected to the tune of –50% or more, as something we can feel confident is worth the speculation.”
Our upside target of $7,166.29 has come and gone. Now comes our updated downside targets for those mindful of the risks.
Posted in Bitcoin
The market is making an attempt to best the 2,600 level on S&P 500. Will wait and see if the bull could make this happen and closed the year above that level. This has been a slow and steady incline since 2,400 mark back in August. A correction to 50 days SMA, which is the range of 2,550, is probable and healthy. We do hope that some kind of correction is in the near future. When that occurs, we have 66 companies on the list as a starting point. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
Tagged members
Performance Review
Below is the 1-year performance of our Canadian Dividend Watch List from November 18, 2016 to November 10, 2017 as compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange.
| symbol | Name | total return |
| EMP-A.TO | Empire Company Limited | 46.23% |
| CCA.TO | Cogeco Communications Inc. | 39.05% |
| NWC.TO | North West Company Inc. | 36.28% |
| AX-UN.TO | Artis REIT | 30.72% |
| D-UN.TO | Dream Office REIT | 29.71% |
| GS.TO | Gluskin Sheff + Associates | 22.87% |
| ET.TO | Evertz Technologies Limited | 22.09% |
| FFH.TO | Fairfax Financial Holdings | 18.04% |
| EMA.TO | Emera Incorporated | 13.04% |
| CUF-UN.TO | Cominar REIT | 11.40% |
| ACD.TO | Accord Financial Corp. | 10.17% |
| REF-UN.TO | Canadian REIT | 6.05% |
| MRU.TO | Metro Inc. | 4.00% |
| REI-UN.TO | Riocan REIT | 3.39% |
| BEI-UN.TO | Boardwalk REIT | 2.72% |
| ENGH.TO | Enghouse Systems Limited | -3.90% |
| average % change | 18.24% | |
| TSX | Toronto Stock Exchange | 8.18% |
While the entire list averaged a sizable gain above the TSX, the top three in the respective value categories had the following results:
| high yield | 23.95% |
| low yield | 6.05% |
| high p/e | 3.95% |
| low p/e | 14.81% |
| high p/b | 7.66% |
| low p/b | 14.95% |
One stock that we considered was Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO). At the time, we said the following:
“Our recommendation for FFH.TO, for investors willing to accept the risk, is a three stage purchase plan with the first purchase taking place at $581 and below with 50% of intended funds. The second and third purchases at $479.95 and $363.52 with 25% of remaining funds, respectively.”
Since that time, FFH.TO declined below $581 with an ultimate low of $557. Below is the updated review of FFH.TO:
Continuing with Dow Theory, the expectation should be that exceeding the 50% Principle (from 41 to 51) means that there is a good chance that FFH.TO will go to the previous all-time high in the Altimeter. However, the January 2017 dividend reduction could be an indication of difficult times ahead. The highlighted double-top and exceeding the 50% Principle (under the assumption of buying below $581) means that FFH.TO’s minimum gain of +18% in the last year exceeds normal expectations.
Below is the 6-year performance of our Dividend Watch List from November 11, 2011 to November 9, 2017 as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Posted in NLO analysis, Performance Review
Below is the 5-year performance of our Dividend Watch List from November 9, 2012 to November 8, 2017 as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Posted in NLO analysis, Performance Review
Below is the 4-year performance of our Dividend Watch List from November 8, 2013 to November 7, 2017 as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Below is the 7-year performance of our Dividend Watch List from October 22, 2010 to October 20, 2017 as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Posted in NLO analysis
Top Five Watch List Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from November 4, 2014 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.
| Symbol | Name | 2015 Price | 2016 Price | % change |
| CLX | Clorox | 113.35 | 128.11 | 13.0% |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark Corp. | 112.29 | 110.79 | -1.3% |
| PBI | Pitney Bowes Inc | 14.25 | 11.25 | -21.0% |
| DBD | Diebold | 21.10 | 18.35 | -13.0% |
| RLI | RLI Corp. | 54.79 | 58.95 | 7.6% |
| Average | -3.0% | |||
| DJI | Dow Jones Industrial | 17,888.28 | 23,539.19 | 31.6% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | 2,085.18 | 2,587.84 | 24.1% |
Prior Year Performance Review
The top five companies from last year's list were outperformed by the market. The strength of this bull market has propelled the market to its all-time high. We believed that Clorox (CLX) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) were quality companies worth considering as income producing asset while Pitney Bowes (PBI) should be placed under speculative category. Reviewing the performance table above and we believed our initial assessment was accurate.
The other two companies we mentioned were CVS Caremark (CVS) and Nike (NKE). Despite some negative news on Nike, the company performed well while CVS fell 16% for the year.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: November 3, 2017
It appears that nothing can slow or stop this bull market from marching forward. Growth and momentum stocks are in the range while value strategy is left in the dust. That's precisely the situation we are in. Despite that, we remain true to this strategy and will continue to seek quality company at a reasonable price. Below are 63 companies trading at or near its yearly high. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
Tagged members
Below is the 3-year performance of our Dividend Watch List from October 24, 2014 to October 24, 2017 as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Posted in Dividend Watch List, NLO analysis
Below is the updated Gold Stock Indicator as of October 31, 2017:
Performance Review
This is the performance from the October 1, 2016 Nasdaq 100 Watch List:
The entire watch list average a gain of +2.43% compared to the analyst estimate of +8.70%. The watch list categories had the following performance:
The performance in the last year was horrendous for the expectations that we set on the Nasdaq watch list. Compared to the Nasdaq 100 gain of +27% the above watch list gained a meager +2.43%. Adding insult to injury was the section labeled “Sell the Principal” where stocks that seemed to have excessive gains were thought by us to have warranted selling the principal.
Massive gains in the five listed stocks averaged a gain of +73.74% in the last year. That leaves little to debate in terms of the success or failure to the idea of selling the principal.
In our August 2017 Interest Rate Monitor, we said the following:
“…we’re holding to the idea that the current range in the trend will remain, until proven otherwise.”
As seen in the chart below, the range that we spoke of is holding strong, for now.
Performance Review
From our October 2016 Insurance Watch List, we have the following performance of the entire watch list.
| symbol | name | % chg |
| CNO | CNO Financial Group, Inc. | 56.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 24.84% |
| HALL | Hallmark Financial Services Inc. | 12.98% |
| ORI | Old Republic International Corp. | 6.44% |
The average change for the list was +25.23% as compared to the iShares Dow Jones Insurance Index ETF (IAK) gain of +22.51%. Below is the performance of the same stocks relative to the analyst estimates:
How’s this for a stunner? Take a look at the performance Old Republic Title (ORI). What in the world is that all about? The analysts called for a +6.44% gain and that is exactly the amount the stock has increased one year later. Let’s dare them to do it two years in a row.
The stock that we highlighted was Hallmark Financial Services (HALL). We pointed out the downside target however only one ($9.68) was achieved. The underperformance of HALL was expected and therefore continues to put the stock in the position of being undervalued at the current price.
In our section titled “Sell the Principal” we highlighted the stocks that we thought investors should consider selling the principal. Below is the performance of those stocks.
| symbol | name | % chg |
| GNW | Genworth Financial, Inc. | -32.67% |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | -17.39% |
| KFS | Kingsway Financial Services Inc. | -2.65% |
| NATL | National Interstate Corporation | 0.25% |
| ENH | Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. | 1.19% |
| CRD-B | Crawford & Company | 1.97% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 9.72% |
| PFG | Principal Financial Group Inc. | 30.14% |
| SYCRF | Syncora Holdings Ltd. | 36.30% |
| UNM | Unum Group | 44.21% |
| LNC | Lincoln National Corporation | 58.14% |
Four stocks exceeded the average return of the iShares Dow Jones Insurance Index ETF (IAK). The average change of the entire list increased by +11.74% as compared to the iShares Dow Jones Insurance Index ETF (IAK) gain of +22.51%.
October 2017 Insurance Watch List
Below is the latest list of stocks that we’re watching and the analyst estimates for the stocks:
Below is the data of Dow Jones Industrial Average declines in the period indicated as a recession according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) from 1902 to 2009. The percentage change is arrived at by taking the first trading day of the month indicated as the beginning of a recession and the last trading day of the month indicated as the end of the recession.
Posted in NBER, recessions