Below are the valuation targets for Leggett & Platt (LEG) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
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- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
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- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
Pentair 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Pentair (PNR) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Roper Technologies 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Roper Technologies (ROP) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Genuine Parts Co. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Genuine Parts (GPC) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
S&P 500 Coppock: January 2019
Below is a charting of the “buy” indications of the Coppock Curve and S&P 500 Index from August 1995 to January 2019. We have contrasted Coppock Curve “buy” signals with the performance from 1954 to the present to verify the market’s performance 12, 24, 36, and 48 months after each signal is given. While the results are overwhelmingly favorable, we always recommend focusing on any negative or contrary indications. Continue reading
CenturyLink: Dividends Are Being Canceled
Below is a price chart of CenturyLink (CTL) adjusted for dividend payments from 1980 to 2019 as provided by Yahoo!Finance.
At the current price of $16.27, CenturyLink is trading at dividend adjusted 1998 prices. Our article titled “Price Decline Equals Dividend Canceled” is a good perspective on investing for dividends and then watching them evaporate with the decline in the shares after the stock has been bought.
Unfortunately, that May 4, 2011 article was about watching your dividends disappear when there is a bear market. In the case of CenturyLink, investors have been watching their dividend payment get wiped away since 2014, long before the current market declines. This is contrasted against the price decline from 1999 to 2002 and 2007 to 2008, clear bear markets at the time.
Normally we’d say that the price of CTL could experience a recovery similar to the period from 2002 to 2014. However, the period from 2008 to the present has data we think will make it challenging to justify investment. Since 2008, the dividend payout ratio and shares outstanding don’t bode well for this stock as seen here.
Posted in CTL, dividends canceled
Chart of the Day: Nyrstar NV
According to Yahoo!Finance, “Nyrstar NV engages in mining, smelting, and producing zinc, lead, and other base and precious metals primarily in Europe, Australia, Canada, the United States, and Latin America.”
The Study of Failure
“The basic lesson from their failure has been that what worked for the Japanese in cars and semiconductors - a headlong rush to seize market share - turned out to be far more expensive, and ultimately futile, in the securities industry (Sterngold, James. "Japan's Washout on Wall Street." New York Times, 11 June 1989. Infotrac Newsstand. Accessed 17 Dec. 2018.).”
See Also: Market Share and Market Price, And Never the Twain Shall Meet
Posted in Chart of the Day, market share, NYRSY, The Study of Failure
CenturyLink’s Troubling Indicator
There are two very disturbing indications at CenturyLink (CTL). The first is the dividend payout ratio as seen below from 1982 to 2018 as obtained from Value Line Investment Survey.
The second troubling indication is the number of shares outstanding. Below is the shares outstanding from 1982 to 2018.
With CenturyLink (CTL) yielding more than some junk bonds, a long-term investor seeking income needs to beware of these two indicators (at minimum) of an unsustainable dividend policy.
Chart of the Day: MicroVision
According to Yahoo!Finance, “MicroVision, Inc. develops PicoP scanning technology that provides high-resolution miniature projection, and three-dimensional sensing and image capture solutions in the United States. Its PicoP scanning technology comprises micro-electrical mechanical systems, laser diodes, opto-mechanics, and electronics.”
The Study of Failure
“Afghanistan, like Vietnam, is yet one more lesson in the inevitable failure of imperialism to make a better world. As always, it seems to take an international humiliation to drive the message home ("Looking for the exit." Globe & Mail [Toronto, Canada], 8 Jan. 1988, p. A6. Infotrac Newsstand. Accessed 17 Dec. 2018.)”
Posted in Chart of the Day, MVIS, The Study of Failure
Emerson Electric 10-Year Targets
The valuation targets for Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) are based on a dividend growth rate which is derived from the lowest calculated growth rate as indicated on the Value Line Investment Survey dated December 28, 2018 and applied to Edson Gould’s Altimeter. A graphical representation of the overvalued, fair value, and undervalued levels are below.
The above Altimeter translates into the following undervalued and overvalued ranges since 1977:
Below are the valuation targets for Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
PPG Industries 10-Year Targets
The valuation targets for PPG Industries (PPG) are based on a dividend growth rate which is derived from the lowest calculated growth rate as indicated on the Value Line Investment Survey dated November 2, 2018 and applied to Edson Gould’s Altimeter. A graphical representation of the overvalued, fair value, and undervalued levels are below.
The above Altimeter translates into the following undervalued and overvalued ranges since 1983:
Below are the valuation targets for PPG Industries (PPG) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Kellogg Co. 10-Year Targets
The valuation targets for Kellogg Co. (K) are based on a dividend growth rate of 4.50% which is derived from the lowest calculated growth rate as indicated on the Value Line Investment Survey dated October 19, 2018 and applied to Edson Gould’s Altimeter. A graphical representation of the overvalued, fair value, and undervalued levels are below.
The above Altimeter translates into the following undervalued and overvalued ranges since 1985:
Below are the valuation targets for Kellogg Co. (K) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Diana Containerships
According to Yahoo!Finance, “Diana Containerships Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the seaborne transportation industry worldwide.”
The Study of Failure
“Yet failure is the rule in a normal existence rather than the exception. Everyone makes errors and we rarely complete a task the first time without mistakes. Though many seek to be the best, few can succeed. The top position, as the name implies, can only be held by one; therefore most will never reach the summits of their professions, sports, and avocations, even though we have been taught that our own self-worth is dependent on striving toward the loftiest goals (Levine, Frederic A. "WESTCHESTER OPINION; Failures Offer Lessons on Winning." New York Times, 7 Jan. 1990. Infotrac Newsstand, Accessed 17 Dec. 2018.).”
Posted in Chart of the Day, DCIX, The Study of Failure
Ethereum: Stunning -93% Decline
On February 5, 2018, in an article titled “Ethereum: Downside Targets”, we said the following:
“In addition to the conservative downside target, we have indicated the level Ethereum would be at if it lost –93% (red line) as Bitcoin did in the period from June 2011 to November 2011 (yeah, it took only five months). Such a decline in Ethereum would bring the price to $96.95.”
On December 14, 2018, Ethereum was quoted at a low price of $84.06. The difference between the high of $1,385.02 and $84.06 is equal to –93.93%. This decline was similar to the decline experienced by Bitcoin in 2011.
On January 24, 2018, in a lead-up to the February 5, 2018 article, we referenced the comparison between Bitcoin in the run-up to the 2011 peak and the run-up to the Ethereum peak in 2018, suggesting that if they can rise in the same percentage then they can decline in a similar fashion. This latest example only solidifies our studies of failure in markets and elsewhere.
Posted in ethereum, The Study of Failure
Chart of the Day: AutoWeb Inc.
According to Yahoo!Finance, “AutoWeb, Inc. operates as a digital marketing company for the automotive industry in the United States. The company was formerly known as Autobytel Inc. and changed its name to AutoWeb, Inc. in October 2017. AutoWeb, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.”
The Study of Failure
“There is a danger in getting so wrapped up by success we expect it - and label lesser success as failure. Such as is happening to Gooden this season. Gooden was 24-4 in 35 starts with a 1.53 ERA last season. This year he's having an 'ordinary outstanding' season. ("The Baseball Page: Clemens Learns About Failure." UPI Archive: Sports News, 5 July 1986. Infotrac Newsstand. Accessed 17 Dec. 2018.)”
Posted in AUTO, Chart of the Day, The Study of Failure