Review: Canadian List Sept 2018

The table below outlines the performance of the top five of the Canadian Dividend Watch list for September 2018.

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The orange circles indicate where, among the top five, the performance was improved if the top 2nd, 3rd and 4th stocks were selected instead of buying the top five.

A very important observation is taking the performance of the top five low yield stocks and the top five high yield stocks.  According to the Dogs of the Dow investment strategy, selecting the top ten stocks with the highest yield will result in higher performance than the representative index.  In this case, the Toronto Stock Exchange is the index we compare the performance to.

In the case of the high yield stocks, they generated returns of –16.23% while the low yield stocks generated returns of +16.35%.  The chasm in performance between the two is wide, deep, and consistent on a historical basis. 

We are confident that if you are an investor seeking average returns then you will not find it in the group of the highest yielding stocks.  In addition, low yielding stocks are able, on a consistent basis, to provided competitive returns year in and year out, as confirmed in our work of the same stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1996.

Dogs of the TSX 60: September 2019

Below we list the performance of the various categories of the TSX 60 as compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange from January 1, 2019 to September 27, 2019.

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The best performing group was the top 1,2,3 stocks which gained +77.56% year to date.  The worst performing group was the top 1,2,3 stocks in the lowest p/e ratio category.

On January 1, 2019, we said the following of the TSX 60:

“Unlike the Dogs of the Dow, The Dogs of the TSX 60 have the best performers in the ‘high yield,’ ‘low p/b,’ and ‘low p/e.’ Our preference is for stocks within the low yield grouping.”

The lowest yielding stocks performed as expected by coming close to matching the index in the top ten and beating the index in the remaining grouping.

The category to beat going forward is the lowest p/b group.

Dogs of the Dow: September 2019

Below we list the performance of the various categories of Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks as compared to the index.

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The category highlighted in red is the original “Dogs of the Dow” where the ten highest yielding stocks are bought and held for one year and sold at the end of the year.  So far, the Dow is beating the Dogs of the Dow by almost 5%.

When contrasting the performance of the Dogs of the Dow against taking the opposite category, stocks providing the lowest dividend yield, we see that across all groupings, the Dogs of the Dow consistently underperform.

For each group, the data set that is thought to be “bad” generally outperformed the category that typically is thought to be “good.”  For example, the highest p/e stock bet lowest p/e stocks, lowest yield stocks beat highest yield stocks and highest p/b stocks beat out lowest p/b stocks (except top 2,3,4) .

Worth noting is the fact that the top 2,3,4 group of stocks only outperformed the top 1,2,3 group of stocks in both of the p/e categories.  This is a stark contrast to what we indicated occurred in prior years of data.

YoY: iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF

Below is a chart of iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF (SJC) from 2008 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.

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Bitcoin: September 2019

In our June 27, 2019 posting we had a downside target of $8,530.33.  On September 25, 2019, Bitcoin achieved a low of $7,944.33.  Below is our assessment of the remaining downside risk.

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Netflix Downside Targets

Below are the downside targets for Netflix (NFLX).

YoY: Netflix

Below is a chart of Netflix (NFLX) from 2003 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.

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Japan: Yokohama Reito

Below is the next upside resistance target for Yokohama Reito (2874.T) along with the downside support level.

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Our expectation is that the 1999 low along with the 2009 re-test of the same level at ¥512 was the confirmation of the reversal in the declining trend from the ¥2,670 peak in September 1989.

Roku Inc. Downside Targets

Below are the downside targets for Roku Inc. (ROKU).

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Our experience with all Speed Resistance Lines is that the conservative target is going to be achieved, no matter the reason.  The targets are as follows:

  • $83.79 (conservative target)
  • $70.21 (mid-range target)
  • $56.62 (extreme target)

Dow’s Railroad Index 1872-1899

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The railroad index consisted of leading rail stocks that exhibited the high average trading volume.  Industrial stocks* as defined by Charles H. Dow as:

“…stocks of trust companies and banks are simply industrial stocks... (Dow, Charles H.Wall Street Journal. Review and Outlook. October 12, 1900)."

*See also December 10, 2016 for more on the 1899 definition of industrial stocks.

Performance Review: September 21, 2018

Below is the performance review of the top five stocks based on price-to-book, price-to-earnings and dividend yield ratios from our September 21, 2018 U.S. Dividend Watch List.

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In the period from September 21, 2018 to September 20, 2019 (intraday), the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased +1%. The best performing group was the low payout ratio stocks with a gain of +8.85%. The worst performing group was the low p/e stocks was a loss of –14.09%.

Worth noting is the performance of the low yield stocks which gained +7.17% while the counterpart high yield stocks lost –6.76%.  This continues to bolster our position that low yield stocks will routinely outperform the high yield stocks.

Also of interest is the fact that high p/e stock beat low p/e stocks, high p/b stocks beat low p/b stocks and low payout stocks beat high payout stocks.

YoY: Altria Group

Below is a chart of Altria Group (MO) from 1971 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.

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Altria Group 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Altria Group (MO) over the next 10 years. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: Top 5 by Ratios

Below is the breakdown of top 5 stocks from our September 13, 2019 list based on the fundamental ratios that we track. Continue reading

YoY: Ulta Beauty

Below is a chart of Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) from 2008 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.

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