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Oil Price Momentum

Thailand is one of the larger economies in Asia coming in at #10 and is #2 in South East Asia region. Over the holiday, I spent 2 weeks in Thailand and wanted to share few observations during my trip.

U.S. Dollar Goes a Long Way in Thailand

One of the benefit of traveling there is the U.S. Dollar has tremendous purchasing power in that region of the world. Because of the recent rise in interest rates in the U.S., the Dollar rose in relation to Thai Baht. In 5 years, the Dollar gained nearly 10%. Our delicious meal for 4 cost typically around $10 – $12! Pictured below is $2.50 Pad Thai at a restaurant.

Pad Thai $2.50

Economic Narrative Is Always Negative

Regardless of where I go or who I speak to, the narrative of the economy is always negative. This was my fifth time visiting this beautiful country and that narrative never changed. I’ve asked Taxi drivers, restaurant operators, or successful business operators, the conversation always steer toward low economic output. However, a lot of the focus this time was around inflation. I find the Thai narrative of bad economy fascinating and leads me to believe it is part of human psychology to lean on the negative side.

Stock Market – SET Index

Turning our attention to the stock market in Thailand or the SET Index. Perhaps the narrative fits the reality when compared to the stock market. For 5 years, the index declined 11%. This is much better than the Hang Seng (Hong Kong) which declined a whopping -40% over the same period. Nifty 50 (India) doubled in the last 5 years. Take the SET Index and apply that to our Price Momentum Indicator and we see a better buying opportunity ahead (see screenshot below). Our PMI showed that when price reach lower ranges (green dotted line), a purchase with a holding time frame of 3 years produced positive returns 88% of the time with annualized gain of 9%.

We executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading →

From our posting on October 8, 2022: Continue reading →