Category Archives: FCR.TO

February 2014 Canadian Performance Review

Below is the performance of the nine stocks from the February 14, 2014 Canadian Dividend watch list compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange gain of +9.16%.

Symbol Name 2014 2015 % change
TLM.TO Talisman Energy 11.66 9.52 -18.35%
FCR.TO First Capital Realty 17.33 20.07 15.81%
FTS.TO Fortis Inc. 30.71 39.53 28.72%
CWT-UN.TO Calloway REIT 25.77 30.45 18.16%
CAR-UN.TO Canadian Apartment Properties 21.52 26.98 25.37%
D-UN.TO Dundee REIT 29.31 27.26 -6.99%
BNS.TO The Bank of Nova Scotia 63.29 67.4 6.49%
CUF-UN.TO Cominar REIT 18.45 19.65 6.50%
LB.TO Laurentian Bank of Canada 45.96 50.4 9.66%

The average gain for all of the stocks listed was +9.49%.  The best performing stock was Fortis (FTS.TO) with a gain of +28.72%.  Over the last year has made 4 dividend payments with a dividend increase of +6.25% with the latest payment on February 12, 2015.  The worst performing stock was Talisman Energy (TLM.TO) with a decline of –18.35%.

Analyst estimates for the listed stocks are compared to the actual performance in the chart below.

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Talisman Energy (TLM.TO) was projected to have the worst decline and it did.  However, it could have been much worse as depicted in the chart below.  At one point, Talisman Energy stock price declined as much as –63% before Spanish oil giant Repsol (REP.MC) announced on December 15, 2014 the intention to buy TLM.TO.

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Our commentary on the dire analyst expectations for Talisman Energy was:

“As far as we can tell, TLM.TO is not slated to be worth very much by the end of 2014.  We’ll have to see how this picture plays out.  However, if the stock market can keep its head above water for the next 10 months we wouldn’t be surprised to see TLM.TO to pull off a shocker.”

In the midst of a collapsing oil and stock prices, Talisman did pull off a shocker and just before the end of 2014.

Canadian Dividend Watch List: December 2014

Performance Review

Our December 2013 watch list contained 14 companies.  The 1-year performance is listed below.

Symbol Name 2013   2014   % change
D-UN.TO Dundee REIT 28.22   24.89   -11.80%
CUF-UN.TO Cominar REIT 17.92   18.39   2.62%
FTS.TO Fortis Inc. 30.31   37.96   25.24%
CWT-UN.TO Calloway REIT 24.72   27.25   10.23%
CAR-UN.TO Canadian Apartment Properties REIT 20.84   24.41   17.13%
TA.TO TransAlta Corp. 13.38   10.71   -19.96%
REI-UN.TO Riocan Real Estate Investment Trust 24.54   26.91   9.66%
SAP.TO Saputo, Inc. 24.12   33.96   40.80%
CU.TO Canadian Utilities Ltd. 35.26   39.01   10.64%
FCR.TO First Capital Realty Inc. 17.5   18.65   6.57%
EMA.TO Emera Incorporated 30.63   38.10   24.39%
REF-UN.TO Canadian REIT 42.08   46.16   9.70%
AX-UN.TO Artis Real Estate Investment Trust 14.65   14.32   -2.25%
ESI.TO Ensign Energy Services Inc. 16.42   10.91   -33.56%

At the time, our analysis of the list was summed up in the following commentary:

“As we’ve indicated in the past, companies that are typically expected to experience the most decline under the lowest earnings scenario are often the ones that outperform in the following year.  We will see if TransAlta, Fortis, Emera, First Capital Realty and Saputo manage to exceed the performance of the stocks currently expected to be in the positive one year from now.  Because of our bias on this matter, we favor the stocks expected to decline in price based on analyst low estimates.”

Our commentary was based on estimates of price change using analyst earnings projections for the coming year (2014) as seen below:

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Below is a graphical representation of the change that has occurred in the last year:

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As has been the case time and again, the stocks that were expected to do the worst actually outperformed the stocks that were anticipated to do the best.  Of the five companies (TransAlta, Fortis, Emera, First Capital Realty and Saputo) that were expected to decline in value averaged a gain of +15.41%.  Of the remaining stocks that were expected to increase, the average gain was +0.22%.  The entire list gained +6.39% while the Toronto Stock Exchange gained +6.48%.

Of interest to all investors is the performance of TransAlta (TA.TO) down –19.96% and Canadian Apartment Properties (CAR-UN.TO) up +17.13%.  The analyst low expectations of these stocks were extremely accurate.  We’re hoping that the analysts tracking these stocks could achieve a repeat performance.

Canadian Dividend Watch List: December 2014

This is a list of Canadian dividend stocks that are currently on our radar. For those wishing to find the most complete fundamental information on these companies, we recommend visiting one of Canada’s leading financial websites, the Financial Post (found here). However, Yahoo!Finance probably has the better long-term charts and historical dividend data.

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