Category Archives: DJIA

Gold Stocks: Hedge Free

We have been quoted here on many occasions saying that when the general equity market takes a dive of –10% or more, so too does gold stocks by a greater margin.  Our point, gold stocks are not a hedge from general market drops.

In our September 24, 2014 article titled “Gold Stocks: Risks and Remedies” we highlighted the numerous instances from 1939 to 2011 of when the Dow declined by more than -10% and showed how either the Barron’s Gold Mining Index or the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Stock Index declined by a greater percentage.

In the recent decline of the DJIA from January 26, 2018 to February 8, 2018, the index declined –10.36%.  So how much did the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Stock Index (XAU) decline?  The XAU declined –11.57%.

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In the chart above, we have excluded the decline of –14.75% from January 24, 2018 to February 9, 2018 in the XAU index.  Add this to the growing list of instances of when the DJIA declines more than –10% and gold stocks also decline by a greater percentage.

Fastest 1,000 Points or Slowest +4.17%?

Saw this headline and almost did a spit-take.

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Fortune Magazine claimed to “fact check” whether history shows that this was the fastest 1,000 points.

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Sadly, Fortune never actually compares the current +4.17% gains to any other in the 122-year history of the DJIA.   You have to wonder if Fortune included the 15 years after 1972, when the Dow finally crossed over 2,000. 

To their credit, Fortune does say, “…the Dow has grown larger over time, meaning a 1,000 point move today is less significant percentage-wise compared to such a movement 20 years earlier.

Again, for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), going from 24,000 to 25,000 is equal a +4.17% change. As noted in Fortune, on a percentage basis, +4.17% isn’t much.  However, we have listed the gains above +4.18%  that took less than 34 calendar days since 1896.  Although there are too many to show, we’ve only relegated this to the last 45 incidents from the lowest percentage gain excluding multiple events in the same year.

Date DJIA % change days
July 21, 1897 4.21% 10
June 29, 1938 4.21% 1
November 27, 1905 4.22% 1
April 5, 2001 4.23% 1
November 30, 2011 4.24% 1
March 4, 1926 4.38% 1
December 24, 1902 4.43% 8
November 1, 1978 4.46% 1
November 2, 1904 4.50% 7
November 26, 1963 4.50% 1
January 15, 1934 4.52% 1
January 17, 1991 4.57% 1
February 9, 1931 4.62% 1
June 19, 1930 4.63% 1
May 29, 1962 4.69% 1
October 28, 1997 4.71% 1
October 9, 1974 4.71% 1
June 12, 1940 4.73% 1
February 11, 2010 4.75% 3
August 17, 1982 4.90% 1
March 16, 2000 4.93% 1
November 16, 1933 4.93% 1
November 12, 1896 4.93% 8
September 8, 1998 4.98% 1
May 17, 1915 5.02% 1
May 27, 1970 5.08% 1
October 16, 1903 5.11% 1
January 27, 1899 5.36% 20
August 17, 1898 5.41% 12
August 11, 1909 5.43% 22
December 22, 1916 5.47% 1
November 22, 1920 5.51% 1
February 5, 1917 5.77% 1
October 20, 1987 5.88% 1
October 20, 1937 6.08% 1
January 19, 1906 6.08% 14
October 7, 1929 6.32% 1
July 24, 2002 6.35% 1
May 10, 1901 6.37% 1
March 15, 1907 6.69% 1
March 23, 2009 6.84% 1
January 6, 1932 7.12% 1
November 10, 1911 8.27% 14
January 14, 1908 8.61% 11
September 5, 1939 9.52% 1

Analyst Estimates: DJIA November 2016

Below are the price projections based on analyst earnings estimates for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as of November 4, 2016. These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks over the next 12 months and the risk profiles associated with the estimates.

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