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Author Archives: nlo-admin
Gold Stock Indicator: XAU and Barron’s Gold Mining Index
In this post, we’re going to review our Gold Stock Indicator from two perspectives, the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index (XAU) and the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI). We were curious about how closely the XAU Index and BGMI would look when applying our GSI formula. We’ve never had the BGMI data set until yesterday. The BGMI data goes back to 1973 while the XAU data goes back to 1983. Based on the charts that we’ve drawn below, we believe that our prior analysis, based on the GSI for the XAU, is confirmed and correct using the last 40 years of data for the BGMI.
Transaction Alert
On December 12, 2013, we SOLD the following stock(s) with an annualized gain of +64%:
Update: Sysco Corporation (SYY)
On September 26, 2013, we purchases a 19% position of Sysco Corporation (SYY). Since that time, SYY has gone from near a 1-year low to a 1-year high all within three months. Today it was announced that Sysco Corporation would merge with U.S. Foods. The fair value target in our transaction alert on September 26, 2013 (found here) has been achieved but we expect that the stock will close below the fair value level on the day. Dow Theory suggests that SYY should re-test the fair value level at least once more.
Our upside targets for SYY are substantial from a fundamental standpoint. However, we’d rather draw your attention to an article that we posted about companies in the industry and how Warren Buffett is utilizing similar companies as a hedge on the coming inflation. The article, titled “Warren Buffett Leverages Up on Inflation Hedge” (found here), outlines a longstanding thesis we have that if you believe inflation is coming then food processors, producers and distributors is the best way to take advantage of this trend going forward. We recommend considering related stocks once they hit our watch list as SYY at current prices are not as compelling as when we purchased the stock.
Posted in Uncategorized
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 6, 2013
Below are the eight Nasdaq 100 companies that are on our radar. Also, we review analyst estimates for the stocks on our list, the altimeter of an individual stock and the exceptional performance of our top five stocks from one year ago.
Posted in Nasdaq 100 Watch List
U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 6, 2013
Below are the 23 companies on our U.S. Dividend Watch List that are within 11% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.
Gold: Conservative Downside Target Met
On March 3, 2013 (found here), we posted the conservative and extreme downside targets for the price of gold with the following commentary:
”According to Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines (SRL), gold has as a minimum decline of -25% from the closing price of Friday March 1, 2013 to the conservative downside target of $1,179.25. From our experience with Gould’s SRL, the minimum downside target is often achieved, especially when the price experiences an almost parabolic price move to the upside.
The extreme downside target of $681.75, which seems outlandish from the current level. Therefore, we’ll split the difference with an initial extreme downside target of $930.50 until proven otherwise. Already, the $1,179.25 level seems extreme in our minds.”
On December 6, 2013, the update to our downside targets for gold is depicted in the chart below:
Gold Stock Indicator: November 29, 2013
During the last week gold and the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index (XAU) were relatively unchanged. Below is the Gold Stock Indicator from March 2012 to the present.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: November 27, 2013
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.
Review: XAU Speed Resistance Lines
In our very first attempt at understanding Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines, when the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index (XAU) was within 6 trading days of the top (found here), we said the following:
“Based on the most recent high of 228.95 the downside target for the XAU index is 76.32. We recommend that whenever the XAU index falls at or below the speed resistance line drawn on the chart, between now and just before 2028, as part of the secular rising trend in interest rates/inflation, we would expect that the stocks in the index are underpriced. Confirmation of fair values should be determined for possible speculative positions at these times.”
An updated chart of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index with Speed Resistance Lines is below:
Posted in Edson Gould, speed resistance line, SRL, William X. Scheinman, XAU
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U.S. Dividend Watch List: November 22, 2013
Below are the 10 companies on our U.S. Dividend Watch List that are within 11% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.
Gold Stock Indicator: November 22, 2013
During the last week gold declined –3.19% while the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index (XAU) declined –6.15%.
Canadian Dividend Watch List: November 22, 2013
This is a list of twelve Canadian dividend stocks that currently, or in the past, had a history of consecutive dividend increases. For those wishing to find the most complete fundamental information on these companies, we recommend visiting one of Canada’s leading financial websites, the Financial Post (found here). However, Yahoo!Finance probably has the better long-term charts and historical dividend data.