Below are the valuation targets for WEC Energy Group (WEC) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
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Welltower Inc. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Welltower Inc. (WELL) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
BancFirst Corporation 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for BancFirst Corporation (BANF) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
General Electric Upside Targets
We’ve been tracking the long and painful slide in the shares of General Electric for quite some time. In a January 2018 posting titled “The Rise and Fall of GE,” when GE was trading at $16.17, we said the following of General Electric:
“From what we can tell, the price target at the ascending $10.97 level is a lock (approximately $12.18). This would match the decline that was experienced by GE in the period from 2000-2002. The question becomes, will GE match the decline of 2007-2009, on a percentage basis. If so, then GE would decline to as low as $5.27.”
So far, the decline has been consistent with expectations. However, now is the time to consider the upside resistance targets. The above chart lays bare the expectations for an upside move. The upside targets are:
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$19.82
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$24.28
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$28.60
Interestingly, GE could achieve all of the designated upside resistance targets and still be in a declining trend. The year 2019 could be forgiving to GE, but the stock price is not out of the woods just yet.
When is GE in the clear? When the stock appreciably increases above $32.93.
Posted in GE, General Electric
2019 Dogs of the TSX 60
Below is the Dogs of the TSX 60 for 2019 with the breakdown of the other categories that we track. Continue reading
2019 Dogs of the Dow
Below is the Dogs of the Dow for 2019 with the breakdown of the other categories that we track. Continue reading
Posted in Dogs of the Dow
Dow 2019 Technical Targets
Downside Targets Continue reading
2018 Dogs of the Dow
Below is a chart of the performance of the Dogs of the Dow from January 2, 2018 to December 31, 2018.
The top ten highest yielding stocks are the traditional Dogs of the Dow. For the year 2018, the highest yielding stocks beat the Dow with a loss of –3.52% compared to the Dow’s decline of –5.34%.
Ten Highest Yielding Stocks Compared to the Dow 1996-2018
| year | Dogs of Dow | DJIA |
| 2018 | -3.52% | -5.34% |
| 2017 | 19.45% | 25.10% |
| 2016 | 16.10% | 13.40% |
| 2015 | -1.20% | -2.20% |
| 2014 | 7.00% | 7.50% |
| 2013 | 30.30% | 26.50% |
| 2012 | 5.70% | 7.30% |
| 2011 | 12.20% | 5.50% |
| 2010 | 15.50% | 11.00% |
| 2009 | 12.90% | 18.80% |
| 2008 | -41.60% | -33.80% |
| 2007 | -1.40% | 6.40% |
| 2006 | 24.80% | 16.30% |
| 2005 | -8.90% | 0.60% |
| 2004 | 0.50% | 3.10% |
| 2003 | 23.60% | 25.30% |
| 2002 | -12.20% | -16.80% |
| 2001 | -7.80% | -7.10% |
| 2000 | 2.70% | -6.20% |
| 1999 | 1.10% | 25.20% |
| 1998 | 7.80% | 16.10% |
| 1997 | 17.30% | 22.60% |
| 1996 | 24.50% | 26.00% |
Noteworthy Stats
- Our selection of the top 1,2,3 highest p/e stocks of the Dow on January 2, 2018 gained +6.54%.
- The best performing group was the top 2,3,4 of the highest p/e stocks with a gain of +18.24%.
- The worst performing group was the top 1,2,3 of the highest yielding stocks with a loss of –25.44%.
Analysis Review
Posted in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, Dogs of the Dow
Coppock Curve: December 2018
This is the last update of Coppock Curve for the year and the indicator is in a free fall. We began the year at 283 in January. At the close of December, the indicator fell to 114, a 60% drop. These stats do not mean much without consideration for the location and direction. However, the faster this indication dip into the negative territory, the sooner we can look forward to a buying indication. Continue reading
Nucor Corp. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Nucor Corp. (NUE) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Lincoln Electric 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Lincoln Electric (LECO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Bank of Montreal 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Bank of Montreal (BMO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
New York Times Recession/Depression Index
When the economic data can’t get any better than it is then it is time to shore up your finances. One way to generalize about the economic conditions is to take a look at the New York Times Recession/Depression Index.
What is the New York Times Recession/Depression Index? It is the number of references to either a recession or a depression. In our modern era, the terms “panic” and “depression” are no longer an acceptable part of the general lexicon to denote a decline in economic activity. However, in the late 18th and early 19th century, they told it like it was. in the mid- to late 20th century, the word “recession” replaced the word panic or depression.
In order to tackle the data, we need a reference point. The best starting point is the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) indication of when a recession begins (peak) and ends (trough). Below are the designations of both periods from 1854 to 2009.
| Peak | Trough |
| December 1854 (IV) | |
| June 1857(II) | December 1858 (IV) |
| October 1860(III) | June 1861 (III) |
| April 1865(I) | December 1867 (I) |
| June 1869(II) | December 1870 (IV) |
| October 1873(III) | March 1879 (I) |
| March 1882(I) | May 1885 (II) |
| March 1887(II) | April 1888 (I) |
| July 1890(III) | May 1891 (II) |
| January 1893(I) | June 1894 (II) |
| December 1895(IV) | June 1897 (II) |
| June 1899(III) | December 1900 (IV) |
| September 1902(IV) | August 1904 (III) |
| May 1907(II) | June 1908 (II) |
| January 1910(I) | January 1912 (IV) |
| January 1913(I) | December 1914 (IV) |
| August 1918(III) | March 1919 (I) |
| January 1920(I) | July 1921 (III) |
| May 1923(II) | July 1924 (III) |
| October 1926(III) | November 1927 (IV) |
| August 1929(III) | March 1933 (I) |
| May 1937(II) | June 1938 (II) |
| February 1945(I) | October 1945 (IV) |
| November 1948(IV) | October 1949 (IV) |
| July 1953(II) | May 1954 (II) |
| August 1957(III) | April 1958 (II) |
| April 1960(II) | February 1961 (I) |
| December 1969(IV) | November 1970 (IV) |
| November 1973(IV) | March 1975 (I) |
| January 1980(I) | July 1980 (III) |
| July 1981(III) | November 1982 (IV) |
| July 1990(III) | March 1991(I) |
| March 2001(I) | November 2001 (IV) |
| December 2007 (IV) | June 2009 (II) |
With the established data on what was considered by the National Bureau of Economic Research as a recession (peak to trough) and expansion (trough to peak), we now have a basis for the quality, or lack thereof, in the New York Times Recession/Depression Reference Index.
The Index
Below is a charting of the data on references made by the New York Times to the words “recession” and “depression.”
Does the Data Match?
For the purposes of clarity, we’ve highlighted the peaks in references to the words “depression” and “recession.” Do any of those peaks happen to match up with the NBER definitions of a period of economic contractions? From what we can tell, there is a 100% coincidence between the peak in the references and either being in a recession/depression or at the beginning of such a period.
2005 to 2018
When looking at the last full cycle, from March 2006 to December 2018, we can see the peak in references to “recessions” which occurred in the month of March 2009.
For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the period from January 2005 has a clear inverse relationship to the New York Times Recession/Depression Index in the same period of time.
At the current level in the New York Times Recession/Depression Index, would anyone be surprised if a recession were to emerge in 2019? We wouldn’t be surprised.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 28, 2018
Following Dow Theory primary trend change to bearish trend, the market staged a minor rally or a secondary reaction to close the week. As a result of a new trend, we saw a spike in the number of companies trading near their respective 52-week low.
The number of companies on our watch list rose 13% higher than two weeks prior. A primary bear market is upon us so be selective with when and how you enter the market. It is still our strategy to start with quality companies from the list below. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
Tagged members
West Pharmaceutical 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for West Pharmaceutical (WST) for the next 10 years. Continue reading