Monthly Archives: April 2021

Dogecoin: It’s Not Legit If It Doesn’t Crash -93%

Posted on April 24, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Review

On February 5, 2018, we outlined the similarity in the level of increases between Bitcoin and Ethereum.  At that time, we said the following:

“The periods in question happens to have the same percentage change, approximately +13,400%.”

We then surmised that if Ethereum could increase the same as Bitcoin then it wouldn’t be far fetched to consider the prospect of Ethereum declining to the same level of -93%, after such an increase.  We said the following:

“As with the same percentage increase, it is reasonable to expect the same percentage decreased that followed.  For the price of Bitcoin, it plunged –93.07% from June 8, 2011 to November 18, 2011.”

By January 10, 2019, we published an article titled “Ethereum: Stunning -93% Decline”.  In that piece, we said:

“The difference between the high of $1,385.02 and $84.06 is equal to –93.93%.  This decline was similar to the decline experienced by Bitcoin in 2011.”

DogeCoin Downside Targets

Below are the downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould.

image

The targets, based on the $0.41 peak, are:

  • $0.19 (conservative target)
  • $0.16 (mid-range target)
  • $0.14 (extreme target)

The -93% downside target for DogeCoin from the $0.41 level is $0.03. We have intentionally excluded the potential upside target of $1.41.  Our emphasis is exclusively the downside risk.

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Posted in DogeCoin, downside, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL

U.S. Dividend Watch List: April 16, 2021

Posted on April 19, 2021 by | 2 comments

This bull market continues to defy gravity as the S&P 500 and DJI closed the week at their all-time high. Despite the strong up trend, there are great companies with strong dividend track records that lagged the market. Below is a list of companies on our watch list this week. Continue reading →

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Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List

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AT&T 10-Year Targets

Posted on April 17, 2021 by | 2 comments

Below are the valuation targets for AT&T (T) for the next 10 years. Continue reading →

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Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, T

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TSX 60 Year-To-Date: April 5, 2021

Posted on April 5, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Below is a chart of the performance of the Dogs of the TSX 60 from December 31, 2020 to April 5, 2021 (intraday).

image

The Toronto Stock Exchange has increased approximately +11.65% year to date. As a group, the Low yield category is crushing the high yield category. The top 5 and top 3 in the low price/book has exceeded the Toronto Stock Exchange by a wide margin.

In our January 3, 2021 posting, we said the following:

“…our personal bias is still with the Low Yield stocks however their performance isn’t as proven as the High P/B stocks..”

The top ten in the high price-to-book has exceeded the Toronto Stock Exchange by nearly double. At the time, we said:

“We’re looking to the High P/B stocks to lead the TSX on the way up and down.  This means, if the market structure breaks down, the High P/B will lose more.  Conversely, if the compressed value component is recognized in the TSX 60 for 2021, then the High P/B stock will be worth your while.”

We don’t understand the underperformance of the top 5, top 3, and 2,3,4 grouping for High price-to-book.

 

See Also:

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Posted in Dogs of the TSX, High P/B

U.S. Dividend Watch List: April 2, 2021

Posted on April 4, 2021 by | Leave a comment

We ended the week with S&P 500 crossing a major milestone of 4,000 which is also its all-time high. This market continue to push forward despite any minor correction along the way. One year ago, it wasn’t obvious that we would make all-time high or reach the 4,000 level. Our list from last year performed extremely well but so did the market. Below is a snapshot of various fundamental strategies compared to the broader market.

Dividend Watch List 04.03.2020

Best performer was buying low P/B companies which rose 137.3%. One thing to note that coming out of the bear market, companies with extreme valuation, one that under-perform, will out-perform on the way up. Take Invesco (IVZ) as an example, the stock reached the high of $38.40 in 2018 and reached the low of $6.70 in May 2020. That decline of 82% is drastic and the market was closing to pricing Invesco as if they would be out of business. The stock is currently at $25.75 which is 284% from the low but that is still far from the $38.40 level we saw in 2018. All this is to suggest that the risk and reward are high under that circumstances.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: April 2, 2021

As we mentioned before, the market continue to make its way higher. However, there are pocket of areas to watch out for. The Nasdaq has lagged the other indexes in making all-time high. For more detail on our analysis of the current market, review out NLO Market Indicator. Continue reading →

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Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List

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Cardinal Health 10-Year Targets

Posted on April 2, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Below are the valuation targets for Cardinal Health (CAH) for the next 10 years. Continue reading →

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Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, CAH

NLO Market Indicator–Dow Theory Indicator March 2021

Posted on April 2, 2021 by | 3 comments

It was a strong month for the market with S&P 500 gaining 1.8% while the Dow Jones Industrial topping 4.6%. However, we are seeing some weakness in the small cap area as the Russell 2000 was down about 2% for the month. It’s becoming more apparent now that a switch to value from growth is occurring as DJI have out performed RUT since early February. DJI rose 6% while the RUT lost 0.6%. One can revisit our assessment of Market Ratio here.

That being said, our NLO market indicator have not show any sign of weakness. Most major indexes made all-time high in March. That wasn’t the case for Nasdaq and Dow Jones Utility. Below is a view of where we are at the end of March. Continue reading →

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Posted in NLO Market Indicator, NLO Market Score

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Coppock Stock: March 2021

Posted on April 1, 2021 by | 2 comments

Before we release 3 stocks that reached buy-signal based on the Coppock Curve, we want to visit 6 companies we highlighted at the end of November 2020.

Screenshot 2021-04-01 102624

As one can see, the performance for these 6 companies have been astonishing. The most interesting observation is that Capital One (COF) is the best performer with gain of 42%. However, historical pattern shows that it has the lowest success rate of 33% and tend to loss value over 1 year holding period.

At the end of March 2021, there are 3 companies reaching buy-signal from the Coppock Curve. All these companies are utilities which doesn’t surprise us given that the Dow Jones Utility index was a buy 2 months ago. Continue reading →

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Posted in Coppock Curve, Coppock Index

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