In a USA Today article titled “Dow hitting 50,000 by 2023? Market milestone is within reach, investor claims”, money manager Charles Lemonides says, “…investors ‘should build their portfolios recognizing Dow 50,000 is a real possibility’ by 2022 or 2023.”
This prediction sounds spectacular and harkens back to our January 3, 2018 article titled “Dow 130,000 by 2032.” That article was premised on our November 2012 article suggesting that the secular bear market would end between 2016 and 2023. After further analysis, in March 2013, we concluded that “…If the current implications are correct, we could be on the cusp of a run to Dow 100,000.”
What stands out about Lemonides’ forecast for the next five years? While we were projecting a +12% compounded annual growth rate, Lemonides is forecasting a +15.09% compounded annual growth rate over the next five years. If the +15.09% growth rate is projected out to 2032 then the Dow Jones Industrial Average would sit at 177,200.