Bitcoin: Retests Downside Targets

On December 18, 2013, we said the following of Bitcoin (found here):

“…in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has declined as low as $455.  This suggests there there could be a significant appreciation from the current level as the conservative downside target has been achieved.”

The rise in Bitcoin from the low of $455 by +123% in less that one month seemed substantial enough.  However, the recent declines in Bitcoin require us to reassess the potential risks and rewards going forward.

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In the last few days, Bitcoin has experienced extreme volatility in its price when it fell -32.7% from the intermediate peak experienced on January 5, 2014 at $1,015. We’re now faced with the potential for Bitcoin to achieve the ascending downside target of $412.65 (now at approximately $570) followed by the worst case level of $200 (ascending red line). 

In many previous examples of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines, once at the extreme downside target of $412.65, the price usually reverses to the upside.  However, failure to do so (reverse at or above the extreme downside target) would mean that Bitcoin could reach $385 before reversing to the upside.  If the $385 level fails on the downside then $200 is assured.

Finally, the extreme upside target is $1,606.95 and the conservative upside target is $1,071.30.  These upside targets are only valid if the price of Bitcoin is on the rise above the $412.65 ascending line. 

***Anyone venturing into the world of Bitcoin for the purposes of speculation should assume that all funds put forth will be lost.

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