Bitcoin: Downside and Upside Targets

On November 19, 2013, we provided our best estimates of what the downside and upside targets were for Bitcoin (found here).  In our assessment, we said the following:

“Our conservative downside target for Bitcoin, based on the peak closing price of $785.50 is $384.83.  The extreme downside target is $261.83.  The worst case scenario is for Bitcoin to fall as low as $152.83 as indicated by the red line on the chart.

As we’ve written many pieces on the topic of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Line, we’ve made some observations that we think should be highlighted at this time.  For the first time, we’re going to provide what we believe might be an upside target.  In the case of Bitcoin, the next conservative upside target is $1,154.49 if the most recent peak of $785.50 is exceeded.  This is a tentative estimate based on observations of the many successful downside SRLs that we have run in the past.  We’ll be on the lookout for what may come next.”

The most updated Bitcoin chart demonstrates the value of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines’ ability to give informed estimates of upside and downside targets.  In the case of Bitcoin, The upside target was achieved and exceeded by 7.23%.  After achieving the upside target, Bitcoin has declined from the recent peak of $1237.96 down to the conservative downside target of $535.65.  The conservative downside target is based on the updated peak in the price for Bitcoin using the guidelines for Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines.

With the conservative downside target being achieved, the extreme downside target of $412.65 and the worst case level of $152.83 are all that remains.  However, in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has declined as low as $455.  This suggests there there could be a significant appreciation from the current level as the conservative downside target has been achieved.  Our revised upside target is now $1,606.95.

Those willing accept the extreme volatility and political risk should seriously consider Bitcoin at or below the $412.65 ascending line with a willingness to see a decline of –62.96%.