Below is a chart of the Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) from 2002 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.
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U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 10, 2021
The market closed the week on a high note as S&P 500 reached all-time high while the Dow is not far out from that mark. Despite that, we observed more companies trading near their yearly low. Below are list of 51 companies on our list this week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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HDFC Bank Limited Price Momentum
Below is a chart of the HDFC Bank Limited from 2002 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.
S&P 500 Equal Weight Price Momentum
Below is a chart of the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) from 2004 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.
Natural Gas Price Momentum
Below is a chart of Natural Gas from 2002 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.
YTD Penultimate Profit Prospect
Review
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In our January 12, 2020 (opened to non-subscribers) posting, based on the data, the Penultimate Profit Prospect was Pfizer (PFE). Our alternate stock was Nike (NKE). For the year 2020, Nike gained +39% while Pfizer lost –0.98% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +7%.
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In our January 2, 2021 (opened to non-subscribers) posting, based on the data, the Penultimate Profit Prospect was Cisco Systems (CSCO). Our alternate stock was Apple Inc. (AAPL).
Year-to-Date Performance
So far, the Penultimate Profit Prospect (CSCO) has gained +27.44%. In the same period of time, our alternate (AAPL) has gained approximately +25% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained roughly +18%.
Posted in Penultimate Profit Prospect
1997-2021: Margin Debit/Credit
It appears that the market for margin debt is moderating. Still unclear is the pattern of Debit to peak in March 2000, June 2007, and March 2021. The pattern so far is to collapse into a market low. The distinction in 2000 and 2007 is that there were several years of market increases leading up to each peak. We suspect the current peak is a result of the pandemic. It is possible that the Credit indication is more reliable for correlations with the stock market.
Posted in Margin Debit-Credit
Visa Price Momentum
Below is a chart of Visa Inc. (V) from 2009 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.
PayPal Price Momentum
Below is a chart of PayPal (PYPL) from 1998 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data. Continue reading
Visa Inc. 10-Year Targets
Below are the price targets for Visa Inc. (V) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Nasdaq Momentum Review
In attempting to assess markets, Charles H. Dow’s April 27, 1899 commentary in the Wall Street Journal can be applied to any market where “price” is updated on a regular basis:
"The point of importance for those who deal in industrial stocks is whether the capitalization of the companies into which they propose to buy is moderate or excessive, when compared with the aggregate earnings of the various concerns forming the combination in a period of depression. It is probable that consolidated companies will be able to earn as much in the next period of low prices as the companies forming the combine were able to earn in the last one; hence the very foundation of investments in industrials should be knowledge of what these companies earned, say in 1893 to 1896, making, perhaps, reasonable allowances for economies under consolidation. Where the earnings so shown would have provided dividends for industrials now active, the fact must be regarded as a very strong point in favor of those stocks (George W. Bishop Jr., Charles H. Dow: Economist, Dow-Jones & Company,Princeton, 1967, page 11.)"
What does the above mean? All market assessments need to start from the prior period of depression. That period of depression sets the parameters for what to expect both on the upside and the downside. In this case, we will start from the 2009 low and see how the Nasdaq price momentum compares to a major trough and peak in the market.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: November 2021
Below are the Nasdaq 100 Watch List stocks for November 2021. Continue reading
Sensex Velocity Indicator
Below is a review of the Sensex Velocity Indicator. In this piece, we’ll examine prior comparable “peaks” to determine potential downside risk.
Review
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September 2, 2020: “If the BSE returns to the last moderate peak (34% in attached chart), then it would bring the index to 49,704.30.” link.
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September 2, 2021: “The current rise is running out of energy.” link.
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September 21, 2021: “The Sensex has reach a point of exhaustion based on the historical precedent established in 1994, 2000, 2004, 2006, & 2010. This doesn't mean the party is over, as the prior years prove. Just that there will be some temporary churn or downside risk from this level.” link.
Posted in BSE Sensex Index, Velocity Indicator
2009-2021: Sensex Velocity Indicator
In the last comparable period of increase in the Sensex Index, we trace out the decline from the July 19, 2010 peak to the January 1, 2012 low to generate a potential downside target for the current period.
As we can seen in the July 19, 2010 – January 1, 2012 period, the Sensex Index had a range of 20,917.03 to 15,406.93 or a decline of –26.34% from the peak. A similar decline would bring the current level of the Index to 45,848.33.
Timing is an issue that most people are interested in. We have not been as successful with such an indication other than to refer to the last range in time for the same price action.
Posted in BSE Sensex Index, Velocity Indicator
U.S. Dividend Watch List: November 12, 2021
We saw major indexes reach all-time high prior week which drive our NLO indicator ever slightly higher. The bullish trend remain even after slight pull back later in the week. Below are companies on our watch list for this week. Continue reading