Algonquin Power & Utilities 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Saputo Inc. 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Saputo Inc. (SAP.TO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Hang Seng Index: December 2021

Review:

On October 5, 2019, we said the following of the Hang Seng Index:

“By all accounts, the failure of the Hang Seng Index to meaningfully exceed the 23,264.43 level indicates that the range of 24,585.53 to 21,616.14 is a lock.”

Below, we assess the prospects of where the index might be headed. Continue reading

TSX 60 In Review: December 21, 2021

Below is the year-to-date performance of the stocks that constitute the Dogs of the TSX 60, the ten highest yielding stocks.  For contrast, we’ve included the breakdown of the top 5, top 3 and 2nd, 3rd, 4th ranked members of the Toronto Stock Exchange with the lowest dividend yield for a sense of perspective.

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The top ten groupings are beating the Toronto Stock Exchange by a wide margin.  This is the stated goal of the strategy, “to beat the index.”

Below is our breakdown of the performance of the Top Ten Low Yield Stocks as compared to the index: Continue reading

Packaging Corp. of America Price Momentum

Below is a chart of the Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) from 2002 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.

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U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 10, 2021

The market closed the week on a high note as S&P 500 reached all-time high while the Dow is not far out from that mark. Despite that, we observed more companies trading near their yearly low. Below are list of 51 companies on our list this week. Continue reading

HDFC Bank Limited Price Momentum

Below is a chart of the HDFC Bank Limited from 2002 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.

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S&P 500 Equal Weight Price Momentum

Below is a chart of the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) from 2004 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.

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Natural Gas Price Momentum

Below is a chart of Natural Gas from 2002 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.

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YTD Penultimate Profit Prospect

Review

  • In our January 12, 2020 (opened to non-subscribers) posting, based on the data, the Penultimate Profit Prospect was Pfizer (PFE).  Our alternate stock was Nike (NKE).  For the year 2020, Nike gained +39% while Pfizer lost –0.98% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +7%.
  • In our January 2, 2021 (opened to non-subscribers) posting, based on the data, the Penultimate Profit Prospect was Cisco Systems (CSCO).  Our alternate stock was Apple Inc. (AAPL).

Year-to-Date Performance

So far, the Penultimate Profit Prospect (CSCO) has gained +27.44%.  In the same period of time, our alternate (AAPL) has gained approximately +25% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained roughly +18%.

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1997-2021: Margin Debit/Credit

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It appears that the market for margin debt is moderating.  Still unclear is the pattern of Debit to peak in March 2000, June 2007, and March 2021.  The pattern so far is to collapse into a market low.  The distinction in 2000 and 2007 is that there were several years of market increases leading up to each peak.  We suspect the current peak is a result of the pandemic.  It is possible that the Credit indication is more reliable for correlations with the stock market.

Visa Price Momentum

Below is a chart of Visa Inc. (V) from 2009 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.

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PayPal Price Momentum

Below is a chart of PayPal (PYPL) from 1998 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data. Continue reading

Visa Inc. 10-Year Targets

Below are the price targets for Visa Inc. (V) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Nasdaq Momentum Review

In attempting to assess markets, Charles H. Dow’s April 27, 1899 commentary in the Wall Street Journal can be applied to any market where “price” is updated on a regular basis:

"The point of importance for those who deal in industrial stocks is whether the capitalization of the companies into which they propose to buy is moderate or excessive, when compared with the aggregate earnings of the various concerns forming the combination in a period of depression. It is probable that consolidated companies will be able to earn as much in the next period of low prices as the companies forming the combine were able to earn in the last one; hence the very foundation of investments in industrials should be knowledge of what these companies earned, say in 1893 to 1896, making, perhaps, reasonable allowances for economies under consolidation. Where the earnings so shown would have provided dividends for industrials now active, the fact must be regarded as a very strong point in favor of those stocks (George W. Bishop Jr., Charles H. Dow: Economist, Dow-Jones & Company,Princeton, 1967, page 11.)"

What does the above mean?  All market assessments need to start from the prior period of depression.  That period of depression sets the parameters for what to expect both on the upside and the downside.  In this case, we will start from the 2009 low and see how the Nasdaq price momentum compares to a major trough and peak in the market.

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