Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Coppock Curve Review

Today is the end of the month which means that we can now review the Coppock Curve(also known as the Coppock Index) to determine if the direction for stocks is indicated to be moving higher overall. Since the last bottom in the Coppock Curve back in April the index has had the following monthly figures:

  • April 2009:-388
  • May 2009:-383
  • June 2009:-378
  • July 2009: -359

From what I can tell we need another 3 months of rising numbers along with an increase above -260 for the Coppock Curve to establish a clear signal that a sustainable market reversal is at hand. I know that asking for 3 more months of rising figures seems like a lot. However, I just don't want to get faked out like what occurred in May of 2002. The actual turn in the index took place in March of 2003, almost a full year later. Would I be missing a lot of market "action" by taking this stance? Absolutely. However, the risk to your hard earned principal is what is at stake. It is always best to take the cautious stance on these matters.


Remember, The Coppock Curve is a relative strength index. In almost every instance that this index rises from a negative number to a positive number it has coincided with a relatively risk-free time to invest in stocks. In turn, an improvement in the stock market is a reflection of the better times in the U.S. economy overall. Let us hope that the trend continues. Touc.


Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Achiever Alert: Pitney Bowes (PBI)

Yesterday (July 30th) in after-hour trading, Pitney Bowes (PBI) fell by $1.89 or 8.04% to close at $21.61 due to downward revisions of future earnings. This may be the situation where the stock becomes severely underpriced by the markets.After a quick read, I found out that PBI normally trades around 7.5 times cash flow according to Valueline Investment Survey. If we use full year 2008 cash flow of $4.66 then we'd arrive at a mean price of $34.95. This suggests that PBI is trading 38% (a nice Fibonacci and Dow Theory number) below the mean price. As a Dividend Achiver, PBI has increased the dividend every year for 25 years in a row at a 10-year CAGR of 5.5%. According to Investment Quality Trends, PBI is undervalued at a price of $29 with a yield of 5%.

PBI has many issues that cannot be ignored. The debt situation is not very favorable to the company, especially since PBI provides the financing for their consumers. PBI could have overextended credit on the upswing of the previous cycle and is now getting hit by the double whammy of companies having difficulty paying back their debt as well as a stalled economy that has reduced the demand for their postal equipment. PBI also has a high dividend payout ratio of 73% based on trailing twelve months earnings.

My expectation is that PBI will fall further when the market opens. As long as the Dow Theory bull market indication isn't reversed and depending on the extent of the decline, I would consider buying PBI. Of course, I'm hoping for a situation where the price goes all the way down to the $14 or $15 level established in 1992. I strongly recommend that you watch this stock and do your research. Touc.


Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Congrats to Terry

The winner of my reader appreciation day book giveaway is Terry Rumpza of Newport, Minnesota. The book Dow's Theory Applied to Business and Banking by Robert Rhea is now bound for L'Etoile du Nord. Thanks to everyone who responded and please keep reading. I hope to entertain and possibly enlighten on matters related to the economy and the stock market. Touc.


Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Concerned About Market Manipulation?

Lately there has been a lot of news about high frequency trading, flash trading, and "alleged" market manipulation by Goldman Sachs and others. However, in my March 16, 2009 posting, I covered the issue of short selling bans, market manipulation and their true effect on the market. It should be noticed that in the high frequency trading article there is a discussion of the issue of stocks priced in pennies. The article states:

"U.S. equity exchanges have catered to such clients since at least 1997, when the NYSE ended its century-old practice of quoting stocks in eighths of a dollar. It shifted to penny increments in 2000. That eroded earnings for NYSE and Nasdaq market makers, who profit from the difference between bids and offers. For investors, it helped reduce trading costs.
The exchanges sought to compensate for the lost business by paying rebates to high-frequency brokerages that buy shares at the best public prices. Exchanges have also overhauled their trading systems to cut transactions times and rent space in data centers so it takes less time to transmit information to buyers and sellers. Bats Global Markets processes orders in less than 400 microseconds, or 0.0004 second, which is about 1,000 times faster than humans blink their eyes."
Edgar Ortega, Jeff Kearns and Eric Martin. "High-Frequency Traders Say Speed Works for Everyone." Bloomberg.com. July 28, 2009. accessed July 29, 2009.

This issue of stocks trading in pennies instead of eighths is critical to the increased manipulation of the stock market. This was a specific matter that I raised in my March 16th posting.

Also, in the comment section of the same March 16th posting, I got a great question about the effectiveness of limit orders and stop loss orders. As I said at the time, your only tool for avoiding the maximum amount of market manipulation is to place market orders. As early as August 12, 2008 in my sell recommendation of Helmerich and Payne, I stated that only market orders should be used to avoid manipulation. Any individual investor who uses automatic orders as a form of "protection" is really subjecting themselves to greater losses and diminished gains. You heard it here first. Touc.


Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Sell Cardinal Health (CAH) at the Market

It is now time to recommend that Cardinal Health (CAH) be sold at the market. The stock has performed reasonably since the research recommendation was issued on June 4, 2009. It is highly recommended that anyone who bought the stock based on my research should re-read the posting. The stock took a small dip in the early part of July, but changed direction after July 10th and hasn't looked back. From the current level, CAH is poised to reach the $43 level considering that we just got a Dow Theory cyclical bull market signal (within a larger secular bear market.) In the pursuit of "seeking fair profits" the returns that this stock has provided within the last fifty-four (54) days say that it is worthwhile considering alternative opportunities.
CAH was recommended when it was trading at $29.95. As of July 28, 2009, CAH was quoted at $33.03. This equals a return of 10.28% in less than 2 months. Conservatively, on an annualized basis this would equal approximately 61% return. Selling this stock now also generates a return 228% greater than the amount of the dividend yield if the stock was held for a whole year.

It is always recommended that when selling a stock, one should not place an order after hours or when the market is closed. This leaves the seller in the position of being vulnerable to the whims of the market makers. Instead, place your sell orders only as a market order during market hours. Some would complain that a market order during market hours might leave some profits on the table. However, I would rather leave some money on the table rather than have it taken away from me by the trades that are placed by institutions and market makers. Touc.


Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.
This blog is being featured on www.condron.us, I hope you find this useful.

Reader Appreciation Day

Today I would like to show my appreciation to everyone who has continued to read my blog on a regular basis despite my errors and omissions. I will be giving away a copy of Robert Rhea's 1938 book "Dow's Theory Applied to Business and Banking." This book is the easiest to read and most applicable to not only the stock market but operating a business and determining the health of banks. This book is listed on Amazon.com with a starting price of US$85.00 all the way up to US$275.00. My copy of the book has a well worn jacket but the binding and pages are unblemished for such an old book. The following is the review of the book from Barron's:

When William Peter Hamilton 17 years ago, wrote the first book on the Dow theory he called The Stock Market Barometer, not because of the theory's value in forecasting the course of stock prices, but because of its value as a barometer of business. Most of the literature on the theory written since then has concentrated on technical studies of its method of identifying stock market trends, both bull and bear, shortly after their beginning.

In this book Rhea returns to Hamilton's original thesis, at which he pounded away steadily in his editorials in The Wall Street Journal and in comments in Barron's up to the time of his death in 1929. But whereas Hamilton had to depend on observation, Rhea has contributed to this subject the first detailed comparison of all the Dow theory bull and bear market signals back to 1897 with the movements of Barron's business index over the same period.

Rhea is well known as author of Dow Theory Comment, comprising air mail letters attempting to forecast stock and business trends; The Dow Theory, an introduction to the theory together with a complete collection of all of Hamilton's discussions of the price movement; and The Story of the Averages, a play-by-play history of every bull and bear market signal the averages have given since their inception and of the course of the market over the whole period. It is from this work that the Dow theory signals used in the new book are taken.

Business Book of the Week. Barron's. October 31, 1938. page 9

For the next two days I will be accepting emails from visitors to my site. I will print out the email addresses and put them in a basket. I will then randomly pull out the winner of the book. The email that is randomly selected will be notified to acquire the mailing address and the book will be sent within 10 days to wherever in the world it must go. Additionally, I will publish the winner's name on the blog. Touc.

Thanks again for reading my blog.

In my blurb on September 14, 2008, I tried to simplify the reason why Lehman Brothers failed. Well, we finally have the former vice president of Lehman Brothers come out with a book on July 21st titled A Colossal Failure of Common Sense that confirms all that I tried to convey in my simple posting. A top down culture of arrogance was the reason that the company failed.

As you read through the book you'll find that the head of Lehman, Richard Fuld, resisted all efforts to keep the company afloat. The mistaken belief by Fuld that he could easily avoid failure because of the prior bailout of Bear Stearns (otherwise known as moral hazard) is what led to the ultimate fall of Lehman. Additionally, it didn't help that while Paulson and Bernanke were trying to create sweetheart exit strategies for Lehman, Fuld maintained an "in-your-face" my way or the highway attitude.

As a sidebar, my comment that Bank of America "must really be in trouble" was precient considering that on September 15, 2008 the stock closed at $25.86. Even after rising 295% from the March 6, 2009 low, Bank of America is still trading 51.62% below the September 15th price. My September 14th thoughts on Bank of America got me to wondering where the company was headed so I did a Dow Theory analysis of BAC the very next day. I highly recommend that you re-read my analysis of BAC, it is well worth your time. Touc.

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Investment Observations

The following are companies, that in our view, are quality long term investment opportunities. These companies have a good chance of outperforming the S&P 500 over the next 2-3 years. For practical purposes, outperforming can mean falling less than the respective index rather than going higher.

Speculation Observations

The following are companies, that in our view, are highly speculative. Putting money into these stocks could mean that some, if not all, of initial capital can be lost in a very short period of time. The ability to accept loss and sell these stocks at lower prices must be the attitude before entering into a long position.
  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) on 1/11/2010
  • Cephalon Inc (CEPH) on 1/4/2010
  • Monsanto Company (MON) on 10/31/2009
  • Mattson Technology (MTSN) on 10/22/2009
  • Cephalon Inc. (CEPH) on 10/08/2009
  • Cephalon Inc. (CEPH) on 8/27/2009

Watch List Update

This week the market took me by surprise. The Dow rose 4%. My watch list shrank from 15 companies to 11 companies. Here are the companies on my watch list as of July 24, 2009.
Dividend Achiever Watch List

Nasdaq 100 Watch List The companies that are within 10% of the low offer a great opportunity to do research and consider buying.

Market Action

The biggest development was the Dow Theory confirmation of a bull market that occurred on Thursday. The Transports confirmed the Industrials with a big move (see charts below).With this action, Richard Russell recommended people to buy Goldman Sachs (GS). I would suggest you consider either the names I recommended on this blog in the watchlist above or the Dow index (DIA) or S&P 500 index (SPY).

Recent Analysis

On July 22, 2009, I wrote an article about the current market and a comparison to the 1980's. It also contained some information and important news on real estate. Also, I did a review of my investment strategy for the Dividend Achiever Carlisle (CSL) on the July 23rd. It was a great position for those who followed my advice.

News & Video

U.S. Home Vacancies Hit 18.7 Million on Bank Seizures

Art

Dow Theory

The Dow Jones Industrials and the Dow Jones Transports both broke above previous highs on July 23rd. As shown below, the previous highs that were exceeded were the June 12th high of 8799.25 for the Industrials (blue line) and the May 6th high of 3404.11 for the Transports (red line.) Based on the fact that both indexes went to new highs on the same day would normally mean that we are in a new bull market. However, because Dow Theory considers trading volume as well as price, the fact that trading volume has been declining throughout the most recent price rise means that there isn't broad participation by either institutional or retail investors. Therefore, I would label this a cyclical bull market which can change direction to the downside without warning.

The following are the upside and downside targets for the Dow Industrials:

Upside:
  • 9,626
  • 10,302 (fair value)
  • 11,588
Downside:
  • 8192.89
  • 7754.68 (fair value)
  • 7316.49
At this point it becomes challenging to suggest buying any stocks that have already run up in price since the March 9th low. Direct exposure to the Dow Industrials or Transports might be the best way to take advantage of further moves upwards. I prefer the individual stocks with the largest weighting in the respective indexes. However, most investors probably would feel more comfortable with the exchange traded funds (ETF) DIA or IYT. ETFs aren't my cup of tea but they are alternatives to picking individual stocks.
If you've followed my blog for any amount of time then you'd know that I'm all for selling stocks that are relatively high (up from the March 9th low) and researching Dividend Achievers that are at or near a new lows. Right now there are only three Dividend Achievers within 10% of their 1 year low. The companies are Wal Mart (WMT), Bard Corp. (BCR), and Abbott Labs (ABT). I'm not comfortable with Wal Mart as explained in my June 18th posting. Additionally, I don't expect to be investing more than 50% of my portfolio during this period unless a company gets extremely underpriced. Good luck with your investing. Touc.
Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

About This Site

This website is intended to give new insights on a low risk approach to trading in dividend paying stocks for tax deferred accounts with the ability to buy and sell individual stocks. This website is not intended for regular or non-qualifying accounts however, the strategies and stocks mentioned can be used for non-qualifying accounts with the understanding of the consequences of potential short-term capital gains as well as the need for exceptional documentation for IRS purposes.
The stocks mentioned here are all from past and current Dividend Achievers as published by Mergent's and components of the Nasdaq 100 index. The Dividend Achiever Index of stocks was at one time published by Moody's Investor's Service. Mergent's picked up the Dividend Achievers from Moody's a few years back and has carried on the service of listing companies that have increased their dividend every year for at least 10 consecutive years in a row. The companies mentioned on this website have committed to a policy of rewarding the shareholder with dividend increases without sacrificing the potential for a higher stock price and company growth. It is strongly recommended that readers of this website first find a library that has a copy of Mergent's Dividend Achievers. After reviewing this publication you'll find that you will probably buy this book on an annual basis. Visit Mergent's Dividend Achievers website for additional information about the publication.
Only postings with Investment Observation (IO) before or after the stock name are those that are considered by New Low Observer (NLO) as worthy of being researched and then put on a watchlist and bought at the lowest possible price after the IO. All stocks that are part of NLO's IO will be followed by a sell recommendation. The absence of a sell recommendation means that the stock should be held if it has been purchased. All other stocks that are mentioned are strictly for the purpose of market or stock commentary.
Goal of this Website

When this website makes a IO it will only be in the instance that the observed stock has fallen within 20% of the 52-week (1 year) low. This is intended to bypass the problem faced by momentum investors who buy high and are forced to hold stocks until they "perform" as expected or sell the otherwise unwanted stock at a significant loss. Furthermore, Dividend Achievers allow for traders to substitute an immediate decline with holding the stock while accruing income until the price recovers.
After a stock has fallen within 20% of the 52-week low, NLO will use various means to evaluate a company. Because information about dividend paying stocks is widely available we suggest that you verify if our IO fit your short and long term investment objectives. While NLO is versed in the many ways to evaluate a stock from a fundamental and technical basis, we choose to offer up, from time to time, Dow Theory interpretations of what the stock might do.
The NLO team has no intention of fulfilling the mantra of diversification. The NLO writers feel that diversification can easily be met by owning a single S&P 500 Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) or Index Fund with low fees. NLO feels that diversification is another word for dilution of gains and reflects an investor's lack of experience and understanding of risk. Ideally, the goal of this website is to have 100% of the investment portfolio broken into fifths, at the most, and invested at all times. However, if the individual stock purchase has achieved the overall goal of exceeding the return on "safe" or "guaranteed" money then a portion or all the funds will be withdrawn from the stock market.
The primary focus of this website is to:
  • maximize the annual return of each trade.
  • reduce time between buying and selling of each stock.
  • exceed the annual yield of government guaranteed alternatives in each trade.
  • sell stocks that cut their dividends regardless of gain or loss

NLO does not subscribe to the belief that stocks should be bought and held for the "long term." Ideally, if a return of 17% can be achieved on a third of the portfolio within a six month period of time when U.S. Treasuries are yielding 5% annually then the after-tax gain of 6%-9% is justifiable. The preceding example assumes the money is in a regular or non-tax deferred account. For this reason, stocks that are part of the Investment Observations can be conceivably held as short as a day or as long as 10 years. Suffice to say, we at NLO are comfortable with gains as little as 5% as long as it exceeds the yield on government guaranteed money within a year's time.

Our Investment Strategy

The investment strategy of NLO is quite unorthodox but worth examining.

  • We only hold three stocks at a time. This means that our portfolio is broken into fifths at the most.
  • We try to be fully invested at all times. This presents challenges during bear markets (declines of 30% or more.)
  • We avoid stocks within an industry that has reached a new high.
  • High yield stocks without a dividend history are avoided. High yield often means high risk.
  • A stock is only considered a Investment Observations (IO) when it has fallen within 20% of the 1-year low.
  • Observations are put on a watchlist to be followed until an optimum price has been reached, preferably lower than the IO price.
  • Once a stock is purchased we hold until the gain on the stock doubles that of "guaranteed" money or 10% has been achieved within a 1 year time frame.
  • Stocks that have a gain of 10% or doubled the yield on guaranteed money are considered for a "sell recommendation."
  • As a stock is sold it is suggested that investors revisit the watchlist for the next stock to research.
  • Stocks to consider should be ranked in order of those that have fallen the most since the IO was issued.
  • From this point the stocks that have lost the most are re-evaluated and one is chosen for replacement of the recently sold position.

Ideally, stocks purchased using this method have the benefit of either performing (going up) in a reasonably short period of time or paying the investor for the wait. This method mirrors the "buy for the long term" approach except that it doesn't rely on the hope that the stock price will rise. Buying low(er) ensures that the investor limits the downside risk and maximizes the idea that all "investments" should derive some form of income until the investment is ultimately sold. Conveniently, this investment approach allows an investor to decided when to sell rather than being force to sell due to "buyer's remorse."

Our Team

The current contributors to this website are not registered representatives or a member of any brokers, dealers, market making firm, national or global stock exchanges. Despite our confidence in our recommendations and lacking the credentials necessary to professionally manage money, we must state that this website is for "entertainment purposes" only. We encourage your thoughtful commentary to our site as this is a forum to learn and spread knowledge.

Disclaimer

As a disclaimer, the NLO team is not liable for misunderstandings, misinterpretations, and errors that lead to investment loss. Our research is believed to be from reliable sources that are cited at all times. In the instance that a source is not cited it is done in error. It is best to assume that our team has a conflict of interest due to the fact that we may actually own the stock before the publishing of a IO or we may have sold a stock before a Sell Recommendation. We do not short sell (sell short) or hold put options on any of the Sell Recommendations that are made. Sell Recommendations are not our opinion of the management team of the company in question. Instead, Sell Recommendations are reflections of our opinion that the money invested in a particular stock is better allocated in other stocks.

 

Apple Computer: Can’t Trust It

Wall Street seems to be rewarding Apple Computer (AAPL) for its increased earning by giving the stock price a boost of 15% in the last 10 days. Yesterday it was announced that Apple beat mean consensus earning estimates by 15%.

I have followed Apple for many years and I can't seem to understand why investors continue to allow themselves to be taken again and again without pause. Apple is replete with examples of how the company has managed to game the system. I will point out the glaring examples that can be proven and hope that others will allow for the facts to stand juxtapose to the exciting stories that have been created to fan the destructive flame of an adoring public. Below are my top five reasons why I can't trust the way Apple operates as a company.

Problem 1: Option Repricing
Since its IPO, Apple Computer had been the innovator of “serial option repricing.” This method allowed Apple to continually reprice the stock options as the shares of Apple stock fell. This is unique since most companies would reprice their options only one time after the price fell below the exercise price. In the case of Apple, the options would be continually repriced as the stock went on a downward decline. This is critical since Apple has used options as the primary means of compensation in the executive suite as well as for frontline employees.

It is worth noting that Steve Jobs garners an annual salary of $1. It’s not because Steve Jobs is Mr. Benevolent , instead he is compensated through the value of the options that are issued to him. If the stock price starts to decline then Jobs would be out the value he could have received if he exercised the options at a higher price. This creates the perverse incentive to adjust the strike price of the options lower if the stock goes down.

While the debate of the use of stock options as a form of compensation has died down it should be noted that as early as 1998 the critics of such instruments were vociferous about the risks associated with them. Warren Buffett’s business partner Charlie Munger said that, “stock options resemble ‘a chain letter.’” According to Dennis Beresford, former chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), options are similar to a “Ponzi scheme.” And like Bernard Madoff’s scheme, the game really starts to fall apart when a sustained decline ensures.

Source: Welles, Edward O. "Motherhood, apple pie & stock options. " Inc. Magazine. Feb 1998.

Problem 2: Management Compensation
During the days of when Gil Amelio was CEO, the board at Apple granted tremendous leeway in how it chose to compensate the CEO. At the time, Apple was expected to lose money for many quarters. How did the board at Apple circumvent this problem to give Amelio the most compensation? The board allowed the company to pursue a strategy of projecting larger losses in the future than was realist and then beating the lose projections. From this standpoint, the board would reset the compensation markers for when the CEO would be able to receive their bonus based on quarterly performance on top of their ordinary pay. This meant that regardless of the number of quarters that had passed without profitability, the CEO was going to receive a bonus no matter what happened. This strategy is similar to what happened to Fannie Mae when the company was forced to restate their earnings and fire CEO Franklin Raines.

Source: Crystal, Graef. "One bad Apple doesn't spoil a whole bunch of stock options. " San Francisco Business Times. Jan 31, 1997.

Problem 3: CEO Bailing
In the chart below you'll see that on June 26, 1997, when Apple was in the throes of a death spiral in the stock price, Steve Jobs decided to sell 1.5 million shares of Apple stock. This would seem to be the time when the CEO should be trying to “inspire” confidence in the company stock. Instead, Jobs chose to sell his shares just after selling his NeXT Software to Apple for $6.50 a share earlier in the same year. Not long afterwards Microsoft (MSFT) inject a large amount of money into Apple. At that point, Apple shares started to rise tremendously.

Source: Mardesich, Jodi, and Chris Schmitt. "Jobs admits selling shares. " San Jose Mercury News. August 12, 1997.
Problem 4: Slight of Hand
Another problem is that Apple always gives conservative guidance on their projections and always seems to beat expectations by a wider than expected margin. This was a strategy that was employed by General Electric (GE) until it could not sustain the lie of earnings management due to the collapse of GE Capital. GE was able to convince the public that all was well with the way they operates. Even convincing management junkies that Jack Welch’s Six Sigma was the reason for the company’s success. Instead, it was the practice of managing expectations and a little accounting mumbo-jumbo that kept things moving.

Did you notice that the analysts who cover Apple stock continually get the numbers wrong. When I compared the analysts estimates tracking Ebay, Cisco, Google, Adobe and Apple I found that Apple was always off target by a wide margin. In the data below, the last five years analysts estimating the annual earnings were below the target numbers as follows:

  • Google (GOOG): 2.85%
  • Ebay (EBAY): 1.35%
  • Cisco (CSCO): 1.52%
  • Adobe (ADBE): 0.006%
  • Apple (AAPL): 5.56%

In the last five quarters, analysts were off of the target numbers as follows:

  • Google (GOOG): 3.33%
  • Ebay (EBAY): 8.25%
  • Cisco (CSCO): 7.98%
  • Adobe (ADBE): 4.50%
  • Apple (AAPL): 15.88%

The relatively huge disparity between analyst estimates for Apple and other “high flyer” tech companies is cause for alarm. How is that Apple projections are off by nearly 100% as compared to other tech companies that are subjected to the same economic downturn in the economy? Either the analysts aren't getting it right or Apple is managing the situation. From the prior track record of Apple, I suspect that the earnings are being managed to the Nth degree.

Note: The preceding annual and quarterly numbers are derived from ThompsonReuters as of July 15, 2009.

Problem 5: Backdating Options
In 2001, Apple was called to task for the issuance of, among other things, a 7.5 million options grant to Steve Jobs. The problem with this is that the issuance, made by Chief Counsel Nancy Heinen, was dated two months prior to the date actually created. Heinen was later fired from Apple and fined for her role in the illegal activity but it didn't seem that Steve Jobs had any problem with the action until the SEC started doing an inquiry into the unusual backdating of the options. Strangely, the Apple board, "exonerated Jobs---in part because Jobs 'did not appreciate the accounting implication' of backdating."

It seems strange that Heinen would benefit Mr. Jobs and later get thrown under the bus. It is interesting to note that the Apple board said that Steve Jobs didn't know the implications of such actions even though the board "admitted to frequent backdating." If Apple had as a practice the backdating and repricing of options since its IPO, then Steve Jobs should have known as the CEO, the implications, from an accounting and legal basis, the actions being taken.

Again, like every good scheme, the act of backdating options didn't come up as an issue until the blowup of the tech sector. Had the Nasdaq stocks continued to move higher I don't think any of the SEC actions would have been taken on the matter of backdating or repricing of options.

Source: Burrows, Peter. Parting Shots at Apple's Jobs; Former CFO Fred Anderson reached a settlement with the SEC over options backdating--but says the CEO deserves part of the blame. Business Week Online. April 26, 2007.

While the products that Apple create are great for the gee-whiz hipster crowd of the new millennium the actions of the board of directors and executive suite has been questionable at best. As far as I can tell, Apple hasn't cleared the air about the way they have managed the company in the past to justify buying or holding the stock right now. Touc.

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Dow Theory

Today the Dow Jones Industrials reached an intraday high of 8927.13. This exceeds my prior Market Barometer target of 8774. For some reason the Industrials are able make higher highs. Unfortunately, the Dow Jones Transports continue to fail to breach the upside target. The Transports fell to 3360.14.

According to Dow's Theory, the action of the Transports is the most resounding evidence of the market's inability to go higher on a sustained basis. Each time the Transports get close to the 3405 level we get a pullback in the market. Additionally, the Transports fall by a greater percentage than the Industrials making it much harder to recover from any declines. We need full participation of the Transports to feel confident about the market direction being up.

I have changed the Market Barometer upside target for the Industrials to 8928. I don't see (showing my limitations) the Industrials going much farther than 8928 without the Transports exceeding the 3405 level. Touc.

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.