Below are the valuation targets for American Financial Group (AFG) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
- Japan
- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
- Silver
- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
Chart of the Day: Invesco Solar ETF
According to Yahoo!Finance, The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), “…seeks investment results that correspond generally to the performance, before the fund's fees and expenses, of an equity index called the MAC Global Solar Energy Index. The fund will invest at least 90% of its total assets in common stock, ADRs and GDRs that comprise the index and depositary receipts representing common stocks included in the index.”
The Study of Failure
“In the stock market, I classify all mistakes in one of two categories. There are the “intelligent” mistakes, and there are the “stupid” mistakes (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. February 6, 1976. page 3.).”
Posted in Chart of the Day, TAN, The Study of Failure
Review: Unum Group Altimeter
Below are the historical buy and sell indications of Unum Group (UNM) based on Edson Gould’s Altimeter.
| date | Altimeter | stock price | buy/sell | % change |
| 2/25/1997 | 432 | $39.50 | sell | -59.97% |
| 2/10/2000 | 107 | $15.81 | buy | 52.12% |
| 1/27/2006 | 321 | $24.05 | sell | -60.58% |
| 11/20/2008 | 126 | $9.48 | buy | 178.59% |
| 4/14/2010 | 318 | $26.41 | sell | -29.65% |
| 7/26/2012 | 146 | $18.58 | buy | 93.76% |
| 3/10/2014 | 248 | $36.00 | sell | -33.14% |
| 2/11/2016 | 130 | $24.07 | buy | 107.15% |
| 3/1/2017 | 250 | $49.86 | sell | -31.81% |
| ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| avg. sell level | 314 | avg. increase | 107.90% | |
| avg. buy level | 127 | avg. decline | -43.03% |
In the table above, we indicate the date of the indication, the Altimeter level at the time of the indication, the stock price at the time of the indication and the percentage change after the indication is provided.
Below are the charts that reflect a full cycle, buy-to-sell-to-buy, in the stock price of UNM as indicated in the table. Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Creative Realities
Yahoo!Finance describes Creative Realities (CREX) as providing, “…digital marketing technology and solutions to retail companies, individual retail brands, enterprises, and other organizations in the United States and Canada. The company's technology and solutions include digital merchandising systems and omni-channel customer engagement systems; interactive digital shopping assistants; advisors and kiosks; and other interactive marketing technologies, such as mobile, social media, point-of-sale transactions, beaconing, and Web-based media that enables its customers to engage with their consumers.”
Study of Failure
"When a stock starts at $5 and is $130 [+2,500%] nine years later, and it is bringing in heavy volume, you are probably buying into a distribution. When you are buying into a distribution during a primary bear market, you are compounding a financial mistake (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. January 16, 1970. page 6)."
Posted in Chart of the Day, CREX, The Study of Failure
Lincoln National 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Lincoln National Corp. (LNC) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Luby’s Inc.
According to Yahoo!Finance, “Luby's, Inc. operates as a multi-brand restaurant company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Company-Owned Restaurants, Franchise Operations, and Culinary Contract Services.”
The Study of Failure
"The initial step in learning from our mistakes is recognizing that our present knowledge is inadequate (Perkinson, Henry J. “LEARNING FROM OUR MISTAKES.” ETC: A Review of General Semantics, vol. 36, no. 1, 1979, pp. 37–57. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/42575890.)."
Posted in Chart of the Day, LUB, The Study of Failure
Unum Corp. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Unum (UNM) for the next 10 years.
IBM: An Act of Desperation?
On April 18, 2012, we said of IBM:
“In this case, the dividend has been rising much faster than the stock price, among the many reasons that Buffett might be interested in a technology stock near an all-time high. Now, just imagine what the stock will look like after falling to a 52-week low.”
On July 23, 2015, we said:
“We think that a value investor would have fun pouring over the data to determine the actual value of IBM. Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] indicate that the conservative downside target for IBM is $130. However, we think a process of accumulation at the current price, and below, is a prudent long-term strategy.”
On May 4, 2018, we said:
“For the time being, IBM is reasonably priced for a retest of the 2012 peak in the Altimeter. The stock price would be approximately $362. Keep in mind that the stock still has the prospect of retesting the prior low at $120. The 2008 low of $80 is a consideration but not expected at this time.”
Below we have outlined the commentary dates and the relative price of IBM.
Our interpretation of the data is that IBM is at a critical stage given their recent investment in Red Hat (RHT). There are some who are asking whether or not IBM has overpaid for RHT. To put an end to the discussion, we show a comparison between RHT and IBM since the March 2009 low.
The concept of cloud computing and its role wasn’t new to IBM in 2015. Yet, at a comparable share price, in early 2016 (red arrows), IBM could have bought RHT at $70 instead of the current bid at $190.
The $190 takeout offer exceeds the early 2016 price by +171% and was +62% above the closing price of RHT on October 26, 2018. This deal doesn’t pass the smell test.
We will close with the following observations and price targets: Continue reading
Posted in IBM
Ablemarle Corp. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Ablemarle Corp. (ALB) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Och-Ziff Capital Management Group
According to Yahoo!Finance, “…Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC is a publicly owned hedge fund sponsor. The firm provides investment advisory services for its clients. It primarily caters to institutional investors which include pension funds, fund-of-funds, foundations and endowments, corporations and other institutions, private banks and family offices. The firm invests in equity and alternative markets across the world. It employs quantitative and qualitative analysis to make its investments.”
The Study of Failure
"This is a typical mistake that U. S. companies make: they begin courting, and marry the first one who asks without checking them out or without picking the partner, the country, or the market that best suits their needs (Fjetland, Michael. “Strategic Mistakes in International Transactions.” Journal of International Marketing, vol. 4, no. 2, 1996, pp. 75–86. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/25048647.)."
Posted in Chart of the Day, OZM, The Study of Failure
Transaction Alert
The NLO team executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Five Star Senior Living
According to Yahoo!Finance, Five Star Senior Living Inc. (FVE) “…operates and manages senior living communities in the United States.”
The Study of Failure
"The scientific method is essentially a monument to the utility of error (Schulz, Kathryn. “Making Good Mistakes.” RSA Journal, vol. 156, no. 5543, 2010, pp. 16–17. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/41380031)."
Posted in Chart of the Day, FVE, The Study of Failure
Real Estate: Nationwide Declines from 1910 to 1936
In a CNBC interview that took place on July 1, 2005, Ben Bernanke said:
“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.”
This claim is coming from a scholar who specialized in the Great Depression. The Great Depression was an era of nationwide house price declines as represented in the red box below.
Reviewing the work of Roy Wenzlick, we can see that house price declines were not the only measurable metric that real estate suffered on a nationwide basis. Throughout the U.S., in more than 70 large cities we see that rents decreased, number of new dwellings decreased, office vacancies increased, farm land values decreased and real estate transfers decreased. Below data and charts based on the work of Roy Wenzlick demonstrating nationwide trends in real estate. Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Christopher & Banks
According to Yahoo!Finance, Christopher & Banks (CBK), “…through its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of private-brand women's apparel and accessories in the United States.”
The Study of Failure
"Mistake 1: Not Understanding the Decision Context. It is necessary to understand the decision context to make good value trade-offs. This means that you should know what the decision is, what it is intended to accomplish, and what types of alternatives are available (Keeney, Ralph L. “Common Mistakes in Making Value Trade-Offs.” Operations Research, vol. 50, no. 6, 2002, pp. 935–945. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/3088614.)."
Posted in CBK, Chart of the Day, The Study of Failure
Standex International 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Standex International Corp. (SXI) for the next 10 years. Continue reading