Dow’s theory on Past Performance

Change is the only constant, therefore present value is not future value

"There are a good many former towns in western Kansas which have become even less than villages.  Many dividend-paying investment stocks have, in the course of time, been reorganized out of existence.  Present value does not mean future value unless present conditions are maintained (Dow, Charles H. Wall Street Journal. Review and Outlook. May 26, 1900)."

Who was Charles H. Dow?

“Charles Henry Dow was an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser. Dow also founded The Wall Street Journal, which has become one of the most respected financial publications in the world. He also invented the Dow Jones Industrial Average as part of his research into market movements. He developed a series of principles for understanding and analyzing market behavior which later became known as Dow theory, the groundwork for technical analysis (source: Wikipedia.org).”

Bitcoin: December 2018

After twelve months, the extent of the euphoria and devastation has been wrought on the price of Bitcoin.  Out of necessity, it is necessary to review what has happened since our January 17, 2018 posting (when Bitcoin was at $11,141) on the topic as this was the last assessment that was the most accurate, so far.  In that posting, we said the following:

“Anyone willing to participate in Bitcoin should be willing to accept that the price could easily decline –70%, as has been the average of all previous Bitcoin busts (found here).  Anyone who participates in anything other than Bitcoin should expect a minimum –90% to –99% decline if, at the same time, Bitcoin declines –70% or more.

“We see the current decline consistent with all prior crashes in Bitcoin and therefore see no reason to panic if you are out already.  Alternatively, if you are currently in Bitcoins, you should be willing to accept that the price routinely declines to the levels mentioned above.”

Again, this was that last best assessment we had. After this posting, we’ve had others that can be found in our Bitcoin archive which have been mostly accurate and a couple that have been dead wrong.  Below is the update on the topic of Bitcoin. Continue reading

CSX Corp. 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for CSX Corp. (CSX) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

CenterPoint Energy 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for CenterPoint Energy (CNP) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Chart of the Day: SITO Mobile Ltd.

According to Yahoo!Finance, “SITO Mobile, Ltd. provides advertisement delivery, measurement and attribution, and consumer insights using its proprietary location-based marketing intelligence platform in the United States and Canada. The company was formerly known as Single Touch Systems, Inc. and changed its name to SITO Mobile, Ltd. in September 2014. SITO Mobile, Ltd. was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Jersey City, New Jersey.”

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The Study of Failure

“Despite his failure to foresee the August 1991 coup attempt and his loss of control of the direction of perestroika as a process, Gorbachev was a brilliant political chess master among the Soviet elite. However, he was not fully attuned to the plight of the common man and the depth of dissatisfaction with the government, especially outside Moscow (Blaney, John, and Mike Gfoeller. "Lessons from the failure of Perestroika." Political Science Quarterly, vol. 108, no. 3, 1993, p. 481+. Academic OneFile, http://link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A14557928/AONE?u=sfpl_main&sid=AONE&xid=9381add2. Accessed 10 Dec. 2018.).”

Tilray: Review and Targets

On September 13, 2018, when Tilray (TLRY) was trading at $118.00, we offered downside targets for $118 and $236 price points.  Unsurprisingly, TLRY closed at a price of $214 on September 19, 2018.  At the time we said:

“The conservative downside target is fairly assured to occur in either case.”

The conservative downside target at $118 was $66.67 and at $236 was $102.92.

On September 25, 2018, when TLRY was trading at $114.00, after the stock traded as low as $99.50, we gave upside targets of $156.78, $176.26, and $195.16.  Our closing commentary was as follows:

“Upside retests determine if the price of the stock will continue on the move beyond $214.06.  This is where speculators make their money, on the prospects of an +86% increase.”

TLRY made it as high as $165.64 on a closing basis.  The failure to achieve $176.26 target suggested that the downside targets from the closing price of $214.06 would be the extreme downside target of $78.67, as noted in the September 13, 2018 posting.

Currently, TLRY trades below $75.  Although the extreme downside targets have been acheived, there are indications that TLRY will retest the pivot level at $34.

Downside Targets

The downside risk from the current price, is as follows:

  • $60.72
  • $47.36
  • $34.00

Simply by declining to $60.72, speculators should build in plans for TLRY to go to the $34.00 price point.

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Landstar System 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Landstar System (LSTR) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Chart of the Day: Ascent Capital Group

According to Yahoo!Finance, “Ascent Capital Group, Inc., through its subsidiary, Monitronics International, Inc., provides security alarm monitoring services to residential and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The company provides monitoring services for alarm signals arising from burglaries, fires, medical alerts, and other events through security systems at customers' premises. It also offers home automation services, including remote activation and control of security systems, support for video monitoring, flood sensors, automated garage door and door lock capabilities, and thermostat integration; hands-free two-way interactive voice communication between its monitoring center and customers; and customer service and technical support related to home monitoring systems and home automation services. The company also provides maintenance and wholesale contract monitoring services to other security alarm companies. It markets and sells its products through a network of authorized dealers. The company was formerly known as Ascent Media Corporation and changed its name to Ascent Capital Group, Inc. in July 2011. Ascent Capital Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Greenwood Village, Colorado.”

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The Study of Failure

“With the widespread flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, many generators failed because they were underwater shortly after the storm hit. A common practice now is to elevate diesel generators and fuel tanks above typical storm-surge levels (Eoff, David. "Diesel generator failures: lessons taught by hurricanes." Power Engineering, Aug. 2007, p. 68+. Academic OneFile, http://link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A168813994/AONE?u=sfpl_main&sid=AONE&xid=1f2240c0. Accessed 10 Dec. 2018.).”

Sempra Energy 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Sempra Energy (SRE) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Southern Company 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Southern Company (SO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

J.B. Hunt Transportation Services 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for J.B. Hunt Transportation Services (JBHT) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Graham Holdings 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Graham Holdings (GHC) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Costco Wholesale 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Chart of the Day: JMU Limited

According to Yahoo!Finance, “JMU Limited operates a business-to-business online e-commerce platform that provides integrated services to suppliers and customers in the catering industry in the People's Republic of China. The company's platform networking services focus on local entertainment and lifestyle services, such as restaurants, movie theaters, and beauty salons, as well as allow local merchants to create online stores and make direct sales to their target customers for consumption at their brick and mortar stores. It primarily offers food ingredients, seasonings, alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks, hotel appliances, tableware, kitchen appliances, office appliances, furniture, hotel and restaurant decoration, and hotel and restaurant information systems through its ccjoin.com Website, as well as mobile applications. The company was formerly known as JM WOWO and changed its name to JMU Limited in December 2016. JMU Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.”

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The Study of Failure

"Lafley, safely ensconced in retirement, entered the failure porn fray with a Harvard Business Review interview in 2011: 'I learned more from my failures than from my successes in all my years as a CEO. I think of my failures as a gift.'

"I'd venture to say that the nearly 10,000 P&G employees who have been or will be laid off in the wake of Lafley's failures do not think of them as a gift. But failure is working out well for Lafley: He returned to P&G as chief executive in 2013 to save the company from collapse, and in his first year back he received $19.5 million in compensation. For Lafley, learning from failure simply means dismantling much of what he built: P&G is selling off about half of its brands; most of those rumored to be on the block were acquired by Lafley in the past decade (Lewis, Geoff. "Failure Porn: There's Too Much Celebration of Failure and Too Little Fear (Posted 2014-12-04 17:00:14)." The Washington Post Dec 04 2014 ProQuest. 2 Dec. 2018.)"

Simmons Bank 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Simmons Bank (SFNC) for the next 10 years. Continue reading