NEW LOW OBSERVER

In reviewing the price history of Palladium and in light of the most recent parabolic increase, we have outlined the current increase in the price and compare it to the 1996-2003 rise and decline.

1996-2003

In the period from 1996 to 2004, the price of Palladium increased +837% and subsequently declined from the peak by -86.05%.

The chart above includes the Speed Resistance Lines (SRL) based on the work of Edson Gould.  In this specific instance, the price of Palladium declined through all of the downside targets.  In addition, the continued until it reached a low of approximately $150.50 or -58% below the $359.67 Speed Resistance Line.

In the following review of the most recent increase in Palladium, we’ll compare the 2016-2020 run-up to the increase from 1996 to 2001 to identify the signs of what might come in the price going forward.

Then v. Now

Technically Speaking

When looking at the price of Palladium in both periods, we have identified the most important points contributing to our analysis.

The start to our review is the first intermediate peak after the low.   In the case of the 1996-2004 period, that first peak was at $397.50.  For the period of 2016-2020, that peak was $1,119.90.  The subsequent lows that followed, $272.20 and $877.80, helped to establish the downside targets.

Worth noting is the decline from the initial peaks to slightly below the mid-range downside targets before a continuation of the rising trend to the second intermediate peaks at $718.50 and $1,520.35, respectively.  In both cases, the decline from the second intermediate peaks are situated around the conservative downside targets at $631.87 and $1,627.93.

In both cases, the parabolic move ensues after the second intermediate peak, which is a considerable distance from the level of the conservative downside target.

Conclusion

Because of the precedent set in the period from 1996 to 2001, we expect that the conservative downside target of $1,627.93 will be achieved. 

We could consider it luck if the price of Palladium were to decline to the mid-range level of $1,189.03 or the extreme target of $750.13.  However, if the period from 1996 to 2003 is truly a precedent setting period then it would not be surprising to see Palladium decline to $750.13 as a normal reaction to the parabolic increase.