Category Archives: The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: Creative Realities

Posted on November 3, 2018 by | Leave a comment

Yahoo!Finance describes Creative Realities (CREX) as providing, “…digital marketing technology and solutions to retail companies, individual retail brands, enterprises, and other organizations in the United States and Canada. The company's technology and solutions include digital merchandising systems and omni-channel customer engagement systems; interactive digital shopping assistants; advisors and kiosks; and other interactive marketing technologies, such as mobile, social media, point-of-sale transactions, beaconing, and Web-based media that enables its customers to engage with their consumers.”

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Study of Failure

"When a stock starts at $5 and is $130 [+2,500%] nine years later, and it is bringing in heavy volume, you are probably buying into a distribution. When you are buying into a distribution during a primary bear market, you are compounding a financial mistake (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. January 16, 1970. page 6)."

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Posted in Chart of the Day, CREX, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: Luby’s Inc.

Posted on November 2, 2018 by | Leave a comment

According to Yahoo!Finance, “Luby's, Inc. operates as a multi-brand restaurant company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Company-Owned Restaurants, Franchise Operations, and Culinary Contract Services.”

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The Study of Failure

"The initial step in learning from our mistakes is recognizing that our present knowledge is inadequate (Perkinson, Henry J. “LEARNING FROM OUR MISTAKES.” ETC: A Review of General Semantics, vol. 36, no. 1, 1979, pp. 37–57. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/42575890.)."

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Posted in Chart of the Day, LUB, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: Och-Ziff Capital Management Group

Posted on November 1, 2018 by | Leave a comment

According to Yahoo!Finance, “…Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC is a publicly owned hedge fund sponsor. The firm provides investment advisory services for its clients. It primarily caters to institutional investors which include pension funds, fund-of-funds, foundations and endowments, corporations and other institutions, private banks and family offices. The firm invests in equity and alternative markets across the world. It employs quantitative and qualitative analysis to make its investments.”

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The Study of Failure

"This is a typical mistake that U. S. companies make: they begin courting, and marry the first one who asks without checking them out or without picking the partner, the country, or the market that best suits their needs (Fjetland, Michael. “Strategic Mistakes in International Transactions.” Journal of International Marketing, vol. 4, no. 2, 1996, pp. 75–86. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/25048647.)."

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Posted in Chart of the Day, OZM, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: Five Star Senior Living

Posted on October 31, 2018 by | Leave a comment

According to Yahoo!Finance, Five Star Senior Living Inc. (FVE) “…operates and manages senior living communities in the United States.”

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The Study of Failure

"The scientific method is essentially a monument to the utility of error (Schulz, Kathryn. “Making Good Mistakes.” RSA Journal, vol. 156, no. 5543, 2010, pp. 16–17. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/41380031)."

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Posted in Chart of the Day, FVE, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: Christopher & Banks

Posted on October 30, 2018 by | Leave a comment

According to Yahoo!Finance, Christopher & Banks (CBK), “…through its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of private-brand women's apparel and accessories in the United States.”

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The Study of Failure

"Mistake 1: Not Understanding the Decision Context. It is necessary to understand the decision context to make good value trade-offs. This means that you should know what the decision is, what it is intended to accomplish, and what types of alternatives are available (Keeney, Ralph L. “Common Mistakes in Making Value Trade-Offs.” Operations Research, vol. 50, no. 6, 2002, pp. 935–945. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/3088614.)."

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Posted in CBK, Chart of the Day, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: Globalstar Inc.

Posted on October 29, 2018 by | Leave a comment

Yahoo!Finance describes Globalstar  Inc. as, “…Globalstar, Inc. provides mobile satellite voice and data services worldwide. The company offers duplex two-way voice and data products, including mobile voice and data satellite communications services and equipment for remote business continuity, recreational, emergency response, and other applications; fixed voice and data satellite communications services and equipment in rural villages, ships, industrial and commercial sites, and residential sites; and satellite data modem services comprising asynchronous and packet data services.”

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The Study of Failure

"That which is not worth doing is not worth doing well (Roger Lowenstein.  Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist. Random House. 1995. page 286)."

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Posted in Chart of the Day, GSAT, The Study of Failure

Gold Stock Indicator: October 2018

Posted on October 28, 2018 by | Leave a comment

On April 14, 2011, in our very first attempt at understanding Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines, when the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index (XAU) was within 6 trading days of the top, we said the following:

“Based on the most recent high of 228.95 the downside target for the XAU index is 76.32. We recommend that whenever the XAU index falls at or below the speed resistance line drawn on the chart, between now and just before 2028, as part of the secular rising trend in interest rates/inflation, we would expect that the stocks in the index are underpriced. Confirmation of fair values should be determined for possible speculative positions at these times.”

The chart below reflects the April 14, 2011 level and the projected downside target and is contrasted with the actual low attained, so far.

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The most obvious failure is the fact that the XAU Index declined to 38.84 instead of the 76.32 level, by early 2016.  Additionally, we did not arrive at a timeframe that was useful to traders or investors in gold and silver stocks.

Below, we’re going to use the same methodology of projecting price targets for both the price of gold and the XAU Index.  However, in this review, we’ll be focused on what the upside targets are from the current levels.

Let it be known that the downside target for gold is $1,049.40 and for the XAU Index is 38.84, until proven otherwise.  We believe a reasonable market participant should be willing to accept that both levels will retest the prior low before moving higher. Continue reading →

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Posted in Gold Stock Indicator, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: iPass Inc.

Posted on October 26, 2018 by | Leave a comment

According to Yahoo!Finance, iPass is a provider of , “…mobile connectivity that enables Wi-Fi access on various mobile devices in the United States and internationally. It offers mobile connectivity services that provide cloud-based solution allowing customers and their users access to its Wi-Fi network to stay connected to the people and information.”

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The Study of Failure

"It seems possible that the same creative destruction process fueled by successful ventures may also be fueled by unsuccessful ventures. In short, the process may be blind to the outcome of a particular venture. If so, then failed entrepreneurs may be as heroic as successful entrepreneurs (Knott, Anne Marie, and Hart E. Posen. “Is Failure Good?” Strategic Management Journal, vol. 26, no. 7, 2005, pp. 617–641. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/20142255."

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Posted in Chart of the Day, IPAS, The Study of Failure

Amazon.com Downside Targets

Posted on October 25, 2018 by | Leave a comment

On October 25, 2018, in after-hours trading, Amazon.com (AMZN) was trading down to the level of $1,664.00. 

We’ve tried the Speed Resistance Lines on this stock in the past and it is one of the few that has not achieved the conservative downside target.  In spite of previous failures, here we go with the minimum downside target for AMZN, let’s watch as it defies (again), our minimum target of $969.28.

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Posted in AMZN, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: U.S. Global Investors

Posted on October 25, 2018 by | Leave a comment

Yahoo!Finance describes U.S. Global Investors (GROW) as, “…a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to investment companies. It also provides its services to pooled investment vehicles.”

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The Study of Failure

"Failing actually is a good thing. When we pay attention to what went wrong, and why, it only and invariably prepares us to succeed in the future (Ferguson, Maria. “Failure IS an Option.” The Phi Delta Kappan, vol. 95, no. 4, 2013, pp. 68–69. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/23611840.)."

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Posted in Chart of the Day, GROW, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: DPW Holdings

Posted on October 24, 2018 by | Leave a comment

According to Yahoo!Finance, DPW Holdings, “…designs, develops, manufactures, and sells power system solutions for the military/aerospace, medical and industrial-telecommunication industries in North America and Europe. The company offers custom power system solutions; high-grade flexibility series power supply products, such as power rectifiers; and value-added services for original equipment manufacturers.”

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The Study of Failure

"The market failure model ultimately fails, like other deductive models, because it is not sufficiently derived from an empirical base [Zerbe and Medema,1997]. It is not sufficiently inductive, and instead relies on methods of understanding that derive specific propositions from general principles without much attention to observed facts (Zerbe, Richard O., and Howard E. McCurdy. “The Failure of Market Failure.” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, vol. 18, no. 4, 1999, pp. 558–578. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/3325755)."

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Posted in Chart of the Day, DPW, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: Eco-Stim Energy Solutions

Posted on October 23, 2018 by | Leave a comment

According the Yahoo!Finance, Eco-Stim Energy Solutions (ESES) is a provider of, “… oilfield services in the United States and Argentina. The company offers pressure pumping, coiled tubing, and field management services to the upstream oil and gas industry.”

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The Study of Failure

"Examining coached problem-solving episodes for events that result in learning, Van Lehn et al. (2003) found that not only was successful learning of a principle (e.g., a concept, a natural law in physics) associated with events when students reached an impasse during problem solving but also that when students did not reach an impasse, learning was rare despite explicit tutor-explanations of the target principle (Kapur, Manu. “Productive Failure.” Cognition and Instruction, vol. 26, no. 3, 2008, pp. 379–425. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/27739887.)."

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Posted in Chart of the Day, ESES, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: Amkor Technologies

Posted on October 22, 2018 by | Leave a comment

Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) provides "...outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services in the United States and internationally. The company offers turnkey packaging and test services, including semiconductor wafer bumps, wafer probes, wafer back-grinds, package design, packaging, and test and drop shipment services."

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The Study of Failure

"Evidence from psychology also suggests that success generates more effort, while failure tends to lead people to reduce their effort and shift their attention to areas where they can be successful (Levin, Ben. “The Failure of Failure.” The Phi Delta Kappan, vol. 89, no. 3, 2007, pp. 234–235. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/20442456.)."

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Posted in AMKR, Chart of the Day, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: Hovnanian Enterprises

Posted on October 21, 2018 by | Leave a comment

Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) is described by Yahoo!Finance as a company that “…designs, constructs, markets, and sells residential homes in the United States. It constructs single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, urban infill, and active lifestyle homes.”

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The Study of Failure

“Research on failure as a motivator is limited, though the evidence that does exist suggests that students can grow both from learning about the failures of other successful people and from experiencing failure themselves (Fattal, Isabel. The Value of Failing. The Atlantic. April 25, 2018. link).”

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Posted in Chart of the Day, HOV, The Study of Failure

Chart of the Day: Nxt-ID

Posted on October 20, 2018 by | Leave a comment

According to Yahoo!Finance, Nxt-ID is, “…a security technology company, engages in the development of products and solutions for security, healthcare, financial technology, and Internet of Things (IoT) markets. It offers non-monitored and monitored personal emergency response systems (PERS), including landline and cell-based options; the Fit Pay Trusted Payment Manager Platform (TPMP) that provides IoT and wearable devices with contactless payment capabilities and full digital wallet functionality; World Ventures Flye SmartCard, a smartcard customized for WorldVentures, the travel company; and Fit Pay General Purpose Reloadable Mastercard, which offers prepaid capabilities on wearable devices connected to the TPMP.”

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The Study of Failure

“…while risk-taking can lead to either spectacular success or disastrous failure, looking only at successes will show a positive correlation between success and risk-taking.

“At least half the problem, says Denrell, is that data for failures tends to disappear. After all, companies that pursue unsuccessful strategies either go out of business or change their approach. Either way, information about the unsuccessful strategies becomes scarce, especially in comparison to the wealth of data from successful organizations (Krakovsky, Marina. What We're Missing When We Study Success. Graduate School of Business, Stanford. January 1, 2004. link.)”

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Posted in Chart of the Day, The Study of Failure