Below are the downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould.
The targets, as noted in the chart above are:
There is no indication that the price of Moderna Inc. has peaked. For this reason, the targets are tentative at best. We will need to revise the targets once a decline in the price takes place.
Posted in Edson Gould, MRNA, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
Below are the upside resistance targets based on the work of Edson Gould.
The targets, based on the $0.18 low, are:
Each of the upside resistance targets are levels to expect that the price will either trade in a range or revert to a continuation of the declining trend.
Posted in DogeCoin, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
Below are the downside targets for MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) based on the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines.
Posted in Edson Gould, MKTX, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
Below are the downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould.
The targets, as noted in the chart above are:
The $821.80 target is generally assured, from all parabolic increases of this nature. There exists the potential to decline as low as $410.90. However, we reserve this target as a backup to achieving the $562.00 price.
Posted in Edson Gould, lumber, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
Review
On February 5, 2018, we outlined the similarity in the level of increases between Bitcoin and Ethereum. At that time, we said the following:
“The periods in question happens to have the same percentage change, approximately +13,400%.”
We then surmised that if Ethereum could increase the same as Bitcoin then it wouldn’t be far fetched to consider the prospect of Ethereum declining to the same level of -93%, after such an increase. We said the following:
“As with the same percentage increase, it is reasonable to expect the same percentage decreased that followed. For the price of Bitcoin, it plunged –93.07% from June 8, 2011 to November 18, 2011.”
By January 10, 2019, we published an article titled “Ethereum: Stunning -93% Decline”. In that piece, we said:
“The difference between the high of $1,385.02 and $84.06 is equal to –93.93%. This decline was similar to the decline experienced by Bitcoin in 2011.”
DogeCoin Downside Targets
Below are the downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould.
The targets, based on the $0.41 peak, are:
The -93% downside target for DogeCoin from the $0.41 level is $0.03. We have intentionally excluded the potential upside target of $1.41. Our emphasis is exclusively the downside risk.
Posted in DogeCoin, downside, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
Below are the downside targets for ViacomCBS (VIAC) based on the work of Edson Gould.
Using the Speed Resistance Lines of Edson Gould is ideal since it is a relative scale for every stock no matter the price. Additionally, parabolic increases have been consistent in achieving the conservative target in the past (except in the case of Telsa).
Posted in Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, VIAC
On September 13, 2018, we provided downside targets for Tilray when it was trading at $118. The downside targets, based on the work of Edson Gould, were:
Because of the speculative activity in Tilray, we made a point of building downside targets for the stock if the price doubled to $236. At such a price, the downside targets were:
The actual intraday high for Tilray was $300 on September 19, 2018. This was a far cry above the initial trading price of $118 that the downside targets were constructed.
As seen in the chart below, the actual low has been $2.43 and Tilray currently languishes at a price of $16.80.
On January 19, 2021, we projected price targets for GameStop (GME) when the stock was quoted at $39.91. At the time, the downside targets were:
Since that article, GameStop has increased as high as $159.18.
Given what we’ve seen with Gould’s downside targets in the case of Tilray and other stocks, we still believe that the conservative downside target of $21.26 will be achieved.
Posted in Edson Gould, GME, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TLRY
Based on the work of Edson Gould, we have determined the downside targets for GameStop Corp. (GME) covering data from the last two years. To arrive at conclusions that are reasonable, we first must determine precedent for the potential declines.
2002-2012
In the period from 2002-2007, GameStop Corp. increased to a high of $63.30 which established the following downside targets:
The actual low was $15.73 in 2012.
2012-2020
In the period from 2012-2020, GameStop Corp. increased to a high of $57.43 which established the following downside targets:
The actual low was $2.80 in 2020.
2020-2021
In the period from 2020-2021, GameStop Corp. increased to a high of $39.91 which established the following downside targets:
If GameStop were to replicate the rise of 2002-2007, the price could easily achieve a level of $47.40 before a significant decline ensues. However, achieving such a high price would still relegate the stock to the conservative downside target of $21.26.
The only action we take on downside targets is re-examination of the company fundamentals with an eye for acquiring a long position in the company in question. We do not attempt to short the stock in any form.
Posted in downside, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
Review
We have run Tesla Downside targets in the past.
All parabolic moves get corrected by a specific amount, at minimum. Because a declining trend has begun, we have run the numbers of the expected downside targets based on Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines.
The targets are:
The previous FAILED downside targets had significant problems that could have been easily remedied. First and foremost, for highly volatile stocks like Tesla, we did not include downside targets assuming the price would double. This is usually the most likely scenario to play out and is best represented in our September 13, 2018 targets for Tilray (TLRY).
At the time, Tilray was trading at $118 and we had laid out our downside targets for the stock as seen for Tesla above. However, acknowledging the psychological component of the change in the price, we included downside targets for Tilray if the price doubled ($236) [within the chart]. In fact, Tilray did double shortly afterwards and the downside targets for the doubled level were achieved, by a wide margin.
The doubling downside targets for TSLA are (assumes $996.64 peak):
We’re glad to have failed the previous times as it refines and teaches what we need to know about the limits of Edson Gould’s work. We hope to continue the process of learning as we teach.
See also:
Top three downside targets achieved by year
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Posted in Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TSLA
Below are the downside targets for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) as of July 7, 2020.
Parabolic increases rarely go unchecked. This typically means that a decline to the conservative downside target is the norm, at minimum. However, Tesla has had a history of defying the “norm” when it comes to price change.
see also: TSLA downside targets achieved
Posted in downside, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TSLA
Below are the downside support lines for Twilio Inc. (TWLO) from 2016 to 2017:
Below are the downside support lines for 2017 to 2020: Continue reading
Markets are built on precedent. For this reason, we will display the downside targets in two prior periods to establish the history for Simon Property Group before getting to the most recent decline. We also provide the upside resistance targets for those hoping to “play” the move to the upside.
To get yourself familiar with the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines, we recommend that you review the our article titled “The Power and Lesson of Speed Resistance Lines” dated February 4, 2018. Since that article, approximately 90% of the Speed Resistance Lines that we have run have come to fruition.
Simon Property Group Downside Targets
1993-2000
The mid-range target is a point to watch as it generally defines the balance of the direction of the stock price. Notice how SPG managed to rise and then decline below the prior low.
1999-2009
As should be expected, the decline in the run from the 2007 peak was almost down to the prior starting point as the decline was generally a result of the malinvestment in the real estate sector. As noted in the chart, SPG managed to not replicated the prior cycle of decline from 1998 to 1999. However, it did get pretty close.
2008-2020
The decline from the 2016 peak should not be unfamiliar since it is almost a replication of the decline from 2007 to 2009. If the current decline were to replicated the 2007-2009 decline, it would bring the price of SPG to $34.16. This number is not too far from the $36.04 level indicated by the price-to-dividend ratio as outlined in the 10-Year Target that was previously posted.
Upside Resistance Targets
2016-2020
Assuming that the $34.16 price is the downside target and investors are willing to accept such a risk, the upside targets are very compelling. The first upside target is $135.81, or nearly 100% above the current price of $70. However, anyone willing to participate in the potential decline to $34.16 need to accept that rising to $197.31 is still within the declining trend which could conceivably result in a decline back to the $44.01 price.
Our primary concern is with downside risk and therefore if a real estate investment trust must be bought at this time then we’d prefer a position in the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VNQ) over individual names where the volatility is far above our tolerance levels.
see also: U.S. Realty from 1918 to 1945
Posted in downside, REIT, Speed Resistance Lines, SPG, upside target
Below are the Speed Resistance Lines for Microsoft (MSFT) from 1990 to 2002.
From 1993 to 2002, Microsoft experienced a similar parabolic peak to the 2009 to 2020 period. In that time, MSFT hit all of the downside targets that are generated by our Speed Resistance Lines.
Below we outline the Speed Resistance Lines for Microsoft from 2009 to 2020. Continue reading
Below are the downside targets for Shopify (SHOP):
The history of parabolic increases suggests that Shopify’s mid-range target of $240.62 is not unusual and the extreme downside target is possible. We’ll update this chart upon request.
Posted in Edson Gould, SHOP, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
On November 20, 2015, we posted the Speed Resistance Lines for Mercury General (MCY). The downside targets were:
The chart below highlights the date the SRL was published and the price action that has transpired since November 20, 2015.
Our lurking worry? That the $20.10 target will be achieved. This leads to a downside range of $18-$20 from the current price of $38.88.
Posted in downside, Edson Gould, MCY, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL