Below are the valuation targets for KLA-Tencor (KLAC) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: February 26, 2016
Performance Review
Below is the percentage change in the stocks that appeared on our February 22, 2015 watch list:
| symbol | name | 2015 | 2016 | % chg |
| GRMN | Garmin Ltd. | 49.42 | 40.4 | -18.25% |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | 25.77 | 32.47 | 26.00% |
| NUAN | Nuance Communications, Inc. | 14.02 | 19.59 | 39.73% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 42.76 | 45.22 | 5.75% |
| FOSL | Fossil Group, Inc. | 85.14 | 47.04 | -44.75% |
| DISCA | Discovery Communications, Inc. | 30.93 | 25.08 | -18.91% |
| KLAC | KLA-Tencor Corporation | 64.97 | 67.97 | 4.62% |
The average performance of the entire watch list was –0.83% while the Nasdaq 100 index declined –4.81%. A stock that we had some interest in was Garmin (GRMN). In our commentary we said the following:
“There is no hard and fast rule for what has occurred in a generally rising market. However, it is well worth the time to examine the investment merit of GRMN when the stock has fallen –29% or more.”
In the case of Garmin, falling –29% from the prior peak would have meant that the stock would at $43.80 or lower. GRMN did not achieve this until early July 2015. Since that time, GRMN has fallen an additional –31%. At the current time, GRMN has not achieved the breakeven level of $43.80.
Watch List and Analyst Estimates
Below is the latest Nasdaq 100 Watch List for February 2016.
Posted in Analyst Estimate, grmn, KLAC, MAT, Mattel, Nasdaq 100 Watch List
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Chip Sector Cycle Says Sell
On December 6, 2012, we said the following of our Nasdaq 100 Watch List:
“We’ve highlighted the chip sector stocks to put emphasis on the fact that, as an industry group, the sector may be at or near a low.”
After a year and a half, the chip sector stocks have achieved all that we had anticipated when we wrote about them in late December 2012. As seen in the chart below, all of the stocks except Altera (ALTR) achieved gains that beat the Nasdaq Composite growth of +46.22% in the same period.
The chip sector does run on a cycle and it is our belief that while this may not be the top it is time to sell the principal in those stocks that have had a decent run. The profit portion should be allowed to compound until new relative lows are achieved.
We’ve been fortunate to successfully identify two chip sector cycles lows on March 20, 2010 and December 6, 2012. As we have in the past, we will notify subscribers of investment opportunities at the next cycle low. Investors may want to consider rotating into sectors that we’ve identified as worth accumulating using the proceeds from the sell of chip sector stocks.