Category Archives: Canadian Dividend Watch List

Performance Review

In the chart below, highlighted in blue, are the analyst’s 2016 estimated percentage changes for what the respective stock was expected to do.   In red, we see what the actual outcome was for the stock in the past year.

Overall, we believe that the analysts covering the stocks on our watch list from last year did relatively well. The three stocks expected to underperform were on target.  Only two of the ten stocks expected to increase failed to register on the positive side of the column.

Performance Review

The Canadian Dividend Watch List from July 2016 gained an equal weighted average of +6.56%.  This is contrasted by the Toronto Stock Exchange gain of +4.65% in the same period of time.  The top performing stock was Cogeco Inc. (CGO.TO) with a gain of +50.94%.  The worst performing stock was Cominar REIT (CUF-UN.TO) with a decline of –23.17%.

Performance Review

Below is the performance of our Canadian Dividend Watch List dated May 25, 2016:

It appears that the analyst call on Cameco (CCO.TO) was quite accurate.  All other stocks on the list fell short of analyst expectations.  When compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange gain of +11.84%, the watch list from last year severely underperformed with an equal weighted decline of –5.82%.

One stock that we had particular interest in was Gluskin Sheff (GS.TO).  At the time, we said the following of the stock:

“…we believe that GS.TO is in a general range of undervaluation and should be considered at the current price.  Additional attention should be paid to the worst case target of the stock falling to the $7.25 price.  Our fair value target price from the current level is $20.87 or approximately +27% above the current price.”

On two occasions in the last year Gluskin Sheff approached, but never achieved, our fair value target price.  Once on September 6, 2016 at an intraday high of $19.45 and again at $19.93 on February 14, 2017.

Merely approaching our fair value target is sufficient to warrant the sale of some/all of the stock in a qualified retirement account.  However, the stock would have failed to trigger a sale of the stock in a non-qualified account. With GS.TO sitting slightly below last year’s price we are publishing an updated Altimeter for a perspective on where the stock might be on a dividend/price basis.

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Performance Review

Below is the performance of our Canadian Watch List from April 2016:

On the whole, the watch list underperformed with a –0.10% decline, this is contrasted with the Toronto Stock Exchange +17.70% change in the same period of time.

While the analysts got a majority of the calls wrong, estimates for Shaw Communications (SJR-B.TO) and Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (REI-UN.TO) exceeded estimates on the upside.  Our call on Imperial Oil (IMO.TO)was short of the mark in the final analysis.  However, looking at the intra-year performance below, we can see that Imperial Oil rivaled the performance of the Toronto Stock Exchange (^GSPTSE).

Canadian Dividend Watch List

Performance Review

A review of our watch list from January 17, 2016 resulted in the following:

• The entire list gained an average of +30.52%
• The top five stocks gained an average of +44.85%
• The top ten stocks gained an average of +38.18%

These totals compare to the +30.19% change in the TSX in the same period of time.

Below is a snapshot of the analysts’ low estimated earnings based on our November Canadian 2016 Watch List. This projection assumes the same price-to-earnings ratio that the stock currently has and the percentage change in price that is implied based on these low earnings estimates.  For the stocks that currently don’t have earnings, a P/E ratio of 14 was assigned.

Performance Review

Below are the actual returns compared to the analyst estimates for the stocks from our Canadian Dividend Watch List dated September 2015.

At the time, We said the following of the stocks on the list:

“CNQ.TO, SNC.TO and IMO.TO are expected by the analysts to suffer greatly in the coming year.  We think that the opposite will be true.  Analyst expectations for companies on the far right side of the above table will not come near the triple digit and above estimates.”

Based on the performance one year later, CNQ.TO, SNC.TO and IMO.TO averaged a gain of +26.60%.  The stocks slated to gain triple digits averaged a loss of –5.75%.  In the last year, the Toronto Stock Exchange has increased +5.84%.

Below is our watch list and analyst projections.