As early as February 2015, when the stock price of Lumber Liquidator (LL) was trading at $50, we had indicated that there was a risk that Lumber Liquidator could decline below $23.47. Since that time, LL had declined as low as $11.
In March 2015, we outlined our own theory of a coincidence indicator that would help investors know when the price of LL should recover. Since that time, LL has fallen in line with our theory and has subsequently increased in price along with our proposed coincidence indicator.
From the low in LL stock price in 2016, we have seen the stock price climb as much as +200%. The actual gain based on our recommended purchase price would be approximately +16% (8% annualized) assuming equal share amounts at/or below the recommended levels.
So what does the coincidence indicator say about LL and the prospects going forward? The chart below is clear on this matter:
On January 15, 2017, we reviewed Helmerich and Payne (HP) after it achieved our July 2, 2016 upside target of $79.16. At the time, we reflected on the following thoughts:
“The only question now is the selling of the stock.”
For all intents and purposes, HP should have been considered for selling the principal or the entire position. Since the January 15, 2017 posting the stock has had the following price action:
Our fear then was, “Can we handle see[ing] the stock fall back to where we bought it?” This thought only comes to mind when or if the stock price substantially exceeds the norm for an individual investment. At the time, HP had annualized gains of more than +60%.
For now, it is back to the drawing board for HP. We’ll have to re-examine the attributes for the stock to determine if investment is warranted or not.
Below we outline the technical view on Altria (MO) applying Dow Theory, Coppock Curve and the Spare/Tengler models. Dow Theory is a “price as a reflection of value” method which we use to determine downside targets. The Coppock Curve highlights possible buy indications. When we apply the Spare/Tengler methodology, a technical approach to viewing fundamental data, we find some level of coincidence with Dow Theory.
Below is the Insurance Watch List for July 2017:
The Canadian Dividend Watch List from July 2016 gained an equal weighted average of +6.56%. This is contrasted by the Toronto Stock Exchange gain of +4.65% in the same period of time. The top performing stock was Cogeco Inc. (CGO.TO) with a gain of +50.94%. The worst performing stock was Cominar REIT (CUF-UN.TO) with a decline of –23.17%.