Category Archives: WCRX

The Canary Died, Everybody Out of the Mine

Ireland and Tax Inversions

The year 2013 will go down as one of the most fascinating in stock market history.  In that year, while Congress was deliberating on Offshore Profit Shifting and using Apple (AAPL) as exhibit number-1, the pharmaceutical industry was entering a phase of industry consolidation and strategic positioning.

In the shifting of the landscape of the pharmaceutical business, the theme of alliances, acquisitions, and mergers fell along the lines of any connection with Ireland as a hub for tax reduction and avoidance in a strategy known as tax inversion.  One company that we followed was Warner Chilcott (WRCX) which was listed on the Nasdaq and was part of the Nasdaq 100 index.

Ultimately, Warner Chilcott (WRCX) would be acquired by Actavis (ACT) because Warner was domiciled in Ireland.  Actavis (ACT) would later change its name to Allergan (AGN) after Allergan merged with Actavis in March 2015.

Our May 22, 2013 thoughts on the deal between Warner Chilcott and Actavis was summarized as follows:

“It appears that paper gains due to mergers and acquisitions through the use of tax reductions and non-GAAP reporting is not a fundamental shift in Actavis’ ability to increase shareholder value.  Additionally, the +56% parabolic run-up in the price along with Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines and Value Line’s fair value estimates suggest that the downside risks are significant.”

The mad scramble to acquire companies located in Ireland was like a tectonic shift in the industry.  Among those companies making deals and finding themselves in Ireland was Perrigo (PRGO).  Even though Perrigo’s operations are located in Allegan, Michigan the company is registered in Dublin, Ireland.  Perrigo pursued their tax inversion in 2013.

On December 21, 2018, it was reported by Reuters that:

“Ireland’s tax authorities have demanded that drugmaker Perrigo, formerly known as Elan, pay 1.64 billion euros ($1.9 billion) in taxes relating to the calendar year 2013, a U.S. securities filing showed.”

On news that Perrigo was being pursued for such a significant tax bill, the price of Perrigo’s stock declined –29.28% in a single day.

Perrigo is the Canary

Looking at the price of Perrigo Co. from the January 2013 low to the current price, we wonder if the tax inversion was worth it, on a long-term basis.

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From where we stand, nothing that Perrigo did was necessary or worth it except to those in specific roles to directly benefit from such activities.  So far, the gains from the tax inversion have left shareholders at Perrigo worse off.

What did those inversion deals look like? See the diagram below:

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Let’s look at this from a different perspective, could it be said that Perrigo has deservedly declined in price due to falling sales and earnings and not the pursuit of aggressive tax strategies?  The data (source: Value Line Investment Survey; October 5, 2018) from 2012 to December 21, 2018 has the following changes:

Perrigo 2012-2018 Years (PRGO) % change
sales 5.04%
cash flow 40.41%
earnings 10.98%
dividend 137.50%
capital spending -45.74%
book value 127.30%
common outstanding 45.49%
price change -63.16%

We suppose that the –63.16% decline in Perrigo shares since 2012 means that the stock is undervalued.  None of the fundamental metrics provided above indicate a decline that warrants or matches the drop that has occurred. However, the –81.82% decline in the stock price since 2015 indicates there is something fundamentally wrong.

Broader Market Implications

Returning to the Congressional hearings on tax inversion and offshore profit shifting in 2013, Apple (AAPL) was the headliner and primary punching bag.  However, in the earlier phase of examining the same topic, the 2012 hearings featured the actions of Hewlett-Packard and Microsoft.  From those hearings, the government contends (emphasis ours):

“We are going to examine the actions of two U.S. companies— Microsoft and Hewlett-Packard (HP)—as case studies of how U.S. multinational corporations, first, exploit the weaknesses in tax and accounting rules and lax enforcement; second, effectively bring those profits to the United States while avoiding taxes; and, third, artificially improve the appearance of their balance sheets.”

“The first step in shifting profits offshore takes place when a U.S. company games the transfer pricing process to sell or license valuable assets that it developed in the United States to its subsidiary in a low-tax jurisdiction for a price that is lower than fair market value (OFFSHORE PROFIT SHIFTING AND THE U.S. TAX CODE—PART 1 (MICROSOFT AND HEWLETT–PACKARD). Hearing Before the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations of the Committee of Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. United States Senate. One Hundred Twelfth Congress. Second Session. September 20, 2012. PDF here.).”

Is the use of the words “exploit,” “avoiding taxes,” “games,” and “artificially improve” an exaggerations or distortion of reality? The current plight of Perrigo (PRGO) should answer the question.  The next obvious question to ask is, if Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) are also involved in similar aggressive tax avoidance strategies, will they be next to recognize similar penalties?

From what we can tell, Ireland would be shooting themselves in the foot to go up against the likes of Microsoft, Apple and the countless others.  However, the latest actions against Perrigo seem like an opening salvo in what will become a long running financial war.  In addition, these actions, coming after an extended period of economic growth appear to be sure signs a cyclical turn is coming.

A good scorecard for tracking tax inversion deals can be found at TheStreet.com where they list the top seven largest transactions as of July 2017.  The seven are:

  • Allergan (AGN)
  • Medtronics  (MDT)
  • Liberty Global (LBTYA)
  • Johnson Controls (JCI)
  • Eaton Corp. (ETN)
  • Restaurant Brands International (QSR)
  • Perrigo Co. (PRGO)

What Happen to Actavis?

The diagram below shows what has happened to Actavis since our May 2013 posting.

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Actavis continued on a shopping spree which has resulted in being publicly traded under the name Allergan (AGN).  We believe that the prime motivator for the deals that occurred since 2009 were in large part due to the immediately accretive “value” that was accomplished by continuing their shopping spree.  When the musical chairs slowed or stopped, the game started to unwind.  We believe this explains why Allergan (AGN) has seen its share value decrease starting in 2015 to the present.

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Allergan has declined from the 2015 peak of $339.50 to the current level of $131.46, a drop of –61.27%.  If Allergan were to decline in a similar magnitude as Perrigo (-81.82%), the stock would achieve the $61.73 price point.  Even at such a level, it would be difficult claim that Allergan would be undervalued.  Also notice that Allergan is now priced at +1.10% above the May 22, 2013 level.  This cannot end well for current long-term shareholders.

Conclusion

We think that the actions against Perrigo (PRGO) will work like a virus and infect other Irish-based American drug companies and then bleed into other areas of the market.  The rate and spread of the virus is hoped to be rapid and broad so that we can get past the pain and move on.

Sources:

  • OFFSHORE PROFIT SHIFTING AND THE U.S. TAX CODE—PART 1 (MICROSOFT AND HEWLETT–PACKARD). Hearing Before the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations of the Committee of Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. United States Senate. One Hundred Twelfth Congress. Second Session. September 20, 2012. PDF here.
  • OFFSHORE PROFIT SHIFTING AND THE U.S. TAX CODE—PART 2 (APPLE INC.). Hearing Before the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations of the Committee of Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. United States Senate. One Hundred Thirteenth Congress. First Session. May 21, 2013. PDF here.
  • Bowers, Simon. “Apple’s cash mountain, how it avoids taxes, and the Irish link”. The Irish Times. November 6, 2017, 17:55. link.
  • Fahy, Graham. “Ireland demands $1.9 billion in back taxes from Perrigo.” Reuters. December 21, 2018. link.
  • “Actavis buys Warner Chilcott, Upside Seems Limited." New Low Observer. May 22, 2013. link.
  • Stewart, Emily. “As Treasury Moves to Bring Back Inversions, Here are 7 of the Biggest Recent Deals.” TheStreet.com. July 11, 2017, 3:12pm. link.

Actavis buys Warner Chilcott, Upside Seems Limited

On May 21, 2013,  Actavis (ACT) announced that it would acquire Warner Chilcott (WCRX) for $20.08 per share (found here) and the deal is expected to close by year-end 2013.  This has turned into an incredible string of companies that have been on our New Low Observer Watch Lists and ultimately get acquired.

On April 30, 2012, we gave Warner Chilcott a sell recommendation after the stock gained +57.11% in 3 months(found here).  After that sell recommendation, Warner Chilcott declined –35% by mid-December.  We reiterated our sell recommendation of Warner Chilcott on September 6, 2012 (found here), from that level the stock decline –12.93%, to the December 13, 2013 low.

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As regular readers of our work know, we compare investments on an annualized return basis.  In the example above, the annualized gain from December 16, 2011 to April 30, 2012 sell recommendation or the December 31, 2013 completion of the merger, are as follows:

  • 12/16/2011 to 4/30/2012:   +276% (excluding special dividend)
  • 12/16/2011 to 12/31/2013:   +80% (including special dividend)

There are several concerns regarding the transaction between Actavis (ACT) and Warner Chilcott (WCRX) that should be taken into consideration.  First and foremost, is the current price action of Actavis stock.  Price action determines a majority of relative fundamental value attributes. Below is the Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] based on the stock price for Actavis since June 2006.

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Any transaction being carried out by Actavis at the current price is heavily dependent on the stock price remaining at $120 and above.  According to Gould’s SRLs, Actavis has a conservative downside target at $87.01 and an extreme downside target at $43.51.  Our experience indicates that the conservative downside target is a lock, at this point.  This is in spite of the fact that the price could double before getting to such a downside target, as was the case with our April 2012 conservative downside target of $420 for Apple (AAPL) (found here).   While the conservative downside target appears to be a lock, the extreme downside target begs some kind of explanation of how it is possible to decline –50% or more.

The first consideration that comes to our mind is the strategic nature of the purchase.  The Actavis purchase of Warner Chilcott will lower the corporate tax rate from 29% to 17% because WCRX is located in Dublin, Ireland as reported by Bloomberg News (found here).  While the reduction of the tax rate seems to be beneficial, it has done little to contribute to Actavis’ earnings.  Already there has been faux outrage by Congress over the fact that Apple has legally dodged their “fair share” of corporate taxes through entities located in Ireland (found here).  We believe that with Congress spotlighting the issues related to legal tax avoidance, some areas that were once loopholes will be closed.  This will require more time to come up with new legal tax avoidance strategies.  Also, with Warner Chilcott being domiciled in Ireland, the focus of the Apple entities, Ireland may be the first target for changes to the tax loopholes that presently exist.

Another challenge is the dramatic increase in sales and earnings due strictly to the merger (found here).  As reported by Zacks Equity Research, based on the preliminary numbers, sales for Actavis are supposed to jump from 7% to 25% by 2014.  Also, annual earnings are supposed to increase 30% from the current level which stands in the negative for the trailing twelve months.  However, little of the gains for Actavis will be a direct result of internal efficiencies and significant improvement of sales.  This come at a time when Warner Chilcott appeared desperate for a buyer after private equity shareholders cashed in most of their chips after substantial special dividends nearly equal to the IPO price set in 2005.

At the time of Watson Pharmaceutical’s acquisition of Actavis in early 2012, it was announced that, “…Including synergies, Watson anticipates the acquisition will be greater than 30% accretive to 2013 Watson non-GAAP EPS, with accretion accelerating in 2014 through organic growth and further achievement of synergies(found here).  In the announcement of the merger between Actavis and Warner Chilcott (WCRX), the company press release says that it will be “…immediately Accretive With Opportunities for Substantial Operational Synergies and Tax Savings” and “…The transaction is expected to be more than 30 percent accretive to Actavis non-GAAP earnings per share in 2014, including anticipated synergies.(found here).  Aside from using nearly the exact same language in the press releases for two different companies, the set up for 2014 could be a big disappointment.

In spite of the accretion that is suggested, Actavis’ 2013 first quarter earnings was –$0.79, down from the $0.43 in the prior year period (found here). In addition, the 2012 fourth quarter earnings were down –10% from the same quarter in the prior year (found here). The 30% immediate accretive non-GAAP gains due to the acquisition of Actavis has not yet been realized.  Also, non-GAAP earnings are not contributing to the bottom line in the form of positive annual net earnings.  It is possible that the merger with Warner Chilcott is simply covering up the failings of Actavis to come through on promises of “immediately accretive” value for the Watson Pharmaceutial/Actavis merger.

Finally, according to Value Line Investment Survey, based on estimated 2013 cash flow, Actavis has a fair value of $120.28.  Since 2006, Actavis has traded below Value Line’s fair value while never trading above such a level.  This trend persisted even after Watson Pharmaceutical acquired Actavis, which was concluded in October/November 2012.  At the current price of $130, Actavis is 3% above Value Line’s estimated 2016-2018 fair value.  We think the persistence of Actavis to trade at or below Value Line’s fair value estimates will continue to dominate the stock price going forward.

It appears that paper gains due to mergers and acquisitions through the use of tax reductions and non-GAAP reporting is not a fundamental shift in Actavis’ ability to increase shareholder value.  Additionally, the +56% parabolic run-up in the price along with Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines and Value Line’s fair value estimates suggest that the downside risks are significant.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 12, 2012

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B dividend payout ratio % from low
WCRX Warner Chilcott plc 11.3 7.73 1.46 4.4 -4.33 0.5 34.25% 2.26%
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. 38.65 15.53 2.49 - 5.61 - - 4.12%
VOD Vodafone Group 26 - -0.55 3.9 1.14 1.02 -185.45% 4.21%
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. 58.18 13.52 4.3 - 3.34 - - 4.68%
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical 39.47 16.08 2.45 1.9 1.58 0.81 33.06% 5.53%
MSFT Microsoft Corporation 27.24 14.72 1.85 3.4 3.34 0.92 49.73% 7.08%
INTC Intel Corporation 20.67 9.01 2.29 4.5 2.09 0.9 39.30% 7.49%
KLAC KLA-Tencor Corporation 47.08 11.45 4.11 3.4 2.36 1.6 38.93% 8.96%
MCHP Microchip Technology Inc. 31.7 30.16 1.05 4.5 3.12 1.41 134.29% 9.61%
^NDX NASDAQ-100 2,674.57 - - - - - - 21.04%

Watch List Summary

A stock that we’re interested in is Dollar Tree (DLTR).  Dollar Tree has had a substantial run in the last five years.  As the price of the stock has recently peaked at $56.34 on June 20, 2012, the decline has almost been as substantial.

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Dollar Tree (DLTR) has declined -31% from the most recent peak.  The highlight of this stock is the ability to remain in a rising trend from the low in January 2008 in spite of the -40% decline in the general stock market.

From a technical standpoint, the stock has established a significant support level at $37.71.  So far, the stock has the potential to increase from the current level to at least $42.18 level on the upside.  However, falling below the support level means that the stock could easily achieve the conservative downside target of $25.88 (extreme downside target is $18.78).

A decline to $25.88 is equal to –54%. Such a decline would not be unusual as it would only be slightly more than the decline in the stock from July 2007 at $14.74 to January 2008 at $7.41.

According to Dow Theory, Dollar Tree has the following downside targets:

  • $39.93
  • $31.72 (downside fair value)
  • $23.52

More research and a potential purchase should take place at $25.88 and below.

Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the Nasdaq 100 Watch List, we have taken the stocks from our list of December 16, 2011 (found here) and have checked their performance one year later. The companies on that list are provided below with the closing prices from December 16, 2011 to December 12, 2012.

Symbol

Name

2011 2012 % change
BMC BMC Software, Inc. 33.17 40.8 23.00%
VMED Virgin Media Inc. 20.95 35.61 69.98%
CTRP Ctrip.com Int'l 23.1 19.79 -14.33%
SYMC Symantec Corp. 15.46 18.75 21.28%
BRCM Broadcom Corp. 28.72 34.34 19.57%
Average 23.90%
NDX Nasdaq 100 Index 2238.18 2674.57 19.50%

Overall, the watch list slightly exceed the Nasdaq 100 index by +4.40%.  All stocks achieved gains of +20% within 5 months.  Virgin Media (VMED) exceeded our expectations by a wide margin. In fact, the stock only went up after being on the watch list by rising +69% in the last year.

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 6, 2012

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B payout ratio % from low
WCRX Warner Chilcott plc 11.31 7.75 1.46 4.3 -4.31 34% 2.53%
BIDU Baidu, Inc. 88.47 20.08 4.42 - 8.33 - 3.23%
VOD Vodafone 25.87 - -0.55 4 1.13 -185% 3.69%
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. 57.79 13.43 4.3 - 3.31 - 4.01%
MCHP Microchip Tech 30.22 28.72 1.05 4.7 2.96 134% 4.36%
INTC Intel Corporation 20.1 8.78 2.29 4.5 2.01 39% 4.68%
ALTR Altera Corp. 31.08 17.41 1.79 1.2 3.04 22% 5.24%
MSFT Microsoft Corporation 26.63 14.45 1.85 3.5 3.26 50% 5.72%
CTXS Citrix Systems, Inc. 60.13 32.85 1.83 - 3.69 - 6.31%
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 11.95 14.92 0.8 2.5 1.58 38% 7.17%
EXPD Expeditors Int'l of WA 36.78 22.97 1.6 1.5 3.76 35% 7.46%
SPLS Staples, Inc. 11.37 - -0.01 3.9 1.23 -4400% 7.85%
FLEX Flextronics Int'l  5.9 8.04 0.73 - 1.61 - 7.86%
KLAC KLA-Tencor Corp. 46.53 11.34 4.11 3.4 2.3 39% 7.87%
ATVI Activision 11.28 14.59 0.78 1.6 1.15 23% 8.23%
AMAT Applied Materials 10.76 125.35 0.09 3.3 1.82 400% 8.34%
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. 40.28 16.21 2.49 - 5.99 - 8.66%
APOL Apollo Group Inc. 20.18 5.8 3.48 - 2.47 - 9.86%
^NDX NASDAQ-100 2,649.12 - - - - - 23.16%

Watch List Summary

We’ve highlighted the chip sector stocks to put emphasis on the fact that, as an industry group, the sector may be at or near a low.  The last time we made this observation of the chip sector was on March 20, 2010 based on the closing price of March 19, 2010 (found here).  The average return of the chips stocks on that watch list was +21.95% as compared to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) gain of +17.86% over the following year.  After the first year had passed (March 18, 2011-present), the same semiconductors stocks have average a loss of –8.98% as compared to the SOX index decline of –10.67% (see chart below).

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Within the first year (March 20,2010-March 18, 2011), all of the stocks on our list except Intel (INTC) managed to achieve gains of over +20% before falling lower.  After the first year had passed (March 18, 2011-present), only MXIM and KLAC were able to achieve gains of +20% while INTC was the only stock to rise above +40%. Depending on the timing of the purchase, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the same performance of the chip related stocks on our current watch list.

Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the Nasdaq 100 Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks from our list of November 18, 2011 (found here) and have checked their performance one year later. The companies on that list are provided below with the closing prices from November 17, 2011 to November 16, 2012.

Symbol Name 2011 2012 % change
CTRP Ctrip.com 26.67 17.58 -34.08%
BMC BMC 36.26 38.73 6.81%
NTAP NetApp 35.73 30.26 -15.31%
QGEN Qiagen 13.71 17.16 25.16%
CHRW Robinson Worldwide 65.65 59.16 -9.89%
Average -5.46%
^NDX Nasdaq 100 2272.09 2534.16 11.53%

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As can easily be seen by the table above, after one year the top five stocks severely underperformed the representative Nasdaq 100 index.  However, three of the five stocks gained +10% or more within the first six months.

The disastrous performance of Ctrip.com (CTRP), declining over –50%, was highlighted well in advance in our December 16, 2011 posting (found here). At that time (CTRP at $23.10) we said the following:

“Ctrip.com International (CTRP) is on a pace to replicate the performance from the high in April 2008 to the low of January 2009 which equaled a loss of 72%. A similar decline in CTRP from the high of $50.57 would bring the price down to $14.16. Suffice to say, the stock “only” needs to decline another $8.94 or 38% from the current price of 23.10. This seems very easy considering the high volatility of Chinese stocks. We believe that unless CTRP is summarily dismissed from the Nasdaq 100 index, there may yet be life in this company.

We believe that the Nasdaq 100 committee added CTRP to the index based on the performance of Priceline.com (PCLN). Amazingly, at the current price of $23.10, CTRP sits one penny below the 2nd Dow Theory support level of $23.11. any further deviation below the current price almost ensures that the stock is destined for the $10 range.”

At its lowest point, Ctrip.com fell as low as $12.36 on July 30, 2012.  We feel that our analysis, based on Dow Theory provided appropriate warning on the downside risk.

Another stock that severely underperformed in the last year was NetApp (NTAP).  However, our initial analysis of the company on January 20, 2012 (found here) we said the following:

After a 39% decline in price, NetApp (NTAP) is a prime candidate for a two transaction purchase. The first purchase should take place starting at $30. The second purchase should take place around $23.47. Based on the market capitalization of NTAP may actually be a buyout candidate.

In May 2012, NTAP briefly fell below $30 and then rose +20% by the month of September 2012.  Then on November 2, 2012 (found here), we recommended that investors consider buying NTAP ($27.74).  Since our November 2, 2012 recommendation, NTAP has risen +18.28%.  In all the history of the stock market over a 100-year, 50-year, and 30-year period, gains like these are exceptional on an annual basis and should be considered gifts in a months time.

We ask that you consider selling the principal and allow the gains to run.  Keep in mind that we believe that stock is a buyout candidate.  However, Dow Theory says that the wish should not become father to the the thought (source: Hamilton, William Peter. The Stock Market Barometer. Harper & Brothers, New York. 1922. page 133).

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: November 2, 2012

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from low
WCRX Warner Chilcott plc 11.47 10.07 1.14 0 13.28 0.35%
DELL Dell Inc. 9.15 5.45 1.68 3.5 1.66 0.44%
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. 57.1 13.27 4.3 - 3.31 0.67%
FFIV F5 Networks, Inc. 82.59 23.94 3.45 - 5.1 1.87%
ALTR Altera Corp. 30.51 17.05 1.79 1.3 3.1 3.11%
APOL Apollo Group Inc. 19.78 5.69 3.48 - 2.43 3.13%
NTAP NetApp, Inc. 27.74 19.58 1.42 - 2.33 3.39%
INTC Intel Corporation 22.06 9.62 2.29 4.1 2.26 3.96%
ATVI Activision Blizzard, Inc. 11.16 15.9 0.7 1.6 1.18 4.00%
VOD Vodafone Group Public Limited Company 26.91 12.29 2.19 7.4 1.1 4.99%
FLEX Flextronics International Ltd. 5.74 7.81 0.74 - 1.61 5.32%
BIDU Baidu, Inc. 105.09 23.78 4.42 - 10.09 5.40%
MCHP Microchip Technology Inc. 32.14 20.75 1.55 4.4 3.12 6.32%
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 12.49 16.46 0.76 - 1.75 7.39%
EXPD Expeditors International of Washington Inc. 36.91 21.97 1.68 1.5 3.83 7.92%
AMAT Applied Materials Inc. 10.81 12.98 0.83 3.3 1.62 8.43%
SPLS Staples, Inc. 11.47 8.64 1.33 3.8 1.18 8.51%
GRMN Garmin Ltd. 37.5 12.67 2.96 4.8 2.19 8.98%
MRVL Marvell Technology Group Ltd. 7.98 10.22 0.78 3 0.94 9.02%
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. 39.59 17.63 2.24 - 6.11 9.85%
MNST Monster Beverage Corporation 44.03 24.6 1.79 - 6.68 9.91%

Watch List Summary

The top stock on our list is Warner Chilcott (WCRX).  On April 30, 2012, we recommended that investors sell WCRX after a +50% increase in the stock price from our December 16, 2011 watch list.  Since our recommendation to sell WCRX, the stock has declined -47.41%.

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We believe that WCRX will declined to the $10 level before it is worth reconsidering the value attributes of this company.

On January 12, 2012, we assessed the points at which an investor could take advantage of the decline of NetApp (NTAP).  At the time, NTAP was trading at $36.85 and we suggested that the stock would be a good buy at $30 and $23.47.  Afterwards, NTAP increased +34.5% to the March high and the fell below the Jan. 12th price.  After falling slightly below the $30 level, NTAP rose +20% to the September high.  Anyone who has not participated in the $30 purchase price can do so at the current price and potentially at the $23.47 level.

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Nasdaq 100 and Apple Inc.

The most important aspect of the movement of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is the impact that Apple Inc. (AAPL) has on the index.  Below you can see a comparison between the index and the stock.

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The high level of correlation that exists between the Nasdaq 100 and Apple, since mid-2011, suggests that the tail is wagging the dog and should result in the index declining further if any negative news comes from Apple.  Strictly from a technical standpoint, it would not be unusual for AAPL to retest the May 2012 lows before recovering in price.  In addition, we believe that Apple Inc. could retest the conservative downside target of $312.87 based on the revised Speed Resistance Line below:

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In order to understand where the Nasdaq 100 might go, consideration of Apple Inc. (AAPL) is required.

Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the Nasdaq 100 Watch List, we have taken the stocks from our list of November 4, 2011 (found here) and have checked their performance one year later. The top five companies on that list are provided in the chart below from November 4, 2011 to November 2, 2012.

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A Deteriorating Situation at Warner Chilcott (WCRX)

After our sell recommendation of Warner Chilcott (WCRX) on April 30, 2012 (found here), the stock price had been on a 3-month slide.  The stock had declined by $4.02, or -24%, by the first week of August.  

However, on August 8th, after the announcement that the company was no longer for sale, WCRX found some traction and started to move higher and rose from $12.63 to as high as $14.09, nearly +12% in a single month.

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After the close of trading on September 5, 2012, seemingly out of nowhere, it was announced that the “main” shareholders and company management were going to sell nearly half of their holdings, or nearly 42.9 million shares, in the company (found here) and (found here).  Among the management that is selling shares is CFO Paul Herendeen who will be letting go of 30.9% of the 1 million shares that he owns.

The “main” shareholders, Bain Capital Partners, JPMorgan Partners, and Thomas H. Lee Partners, took Warner Chilcott “…private in 2005 for about 1.6 billion pounds ($2.1 billion)…” (Bloomberg source).  After waiting only a year, the “main” shareholders took WCRX public (raising  $1 billion) as the stock sold below the offering price of $15 (September 21, 2006 IPO data).

According to Value Line Investment Survey dated July 13, 2012, Warner Chilcott has a fair value of $25.76. However, although gyrating wildly, the total debt has increased from 86% in 2006 to 95% in 2012 and a book value that has declined nearly -83% since going public.

News of insider selling and the failure to sell off the company couldn’t have come at a less opportune time.  We believe that there is more downside left with WCRX and reiterate our sell recommendation of April 30, 2012.

Warner Chilcott up +50% Within Six Months

As we’ve described many times in the past, seeking specific companies at a new low inherently implies that value attributes are far greater than when a stock is trading at a new high.  This has been the case with a majority of stocks that appear on our watch list.

We’ve demonstrated this in the watch list summary section of our April 27, 2012 Nasdaq 100 watch list.  Furthermore, the recent acquisitions of Transatlantic Holdings (TRH) and Cephalon (CEPH) highlight our claim that quality companies invested in near the new low are the most likely candidates to be acquired by much larger companies.  A perfect example is found with news from Warner Chilcott (WCRX).

Today it was announced that Warner Chilcott (WCRX) was going to put itself up for sale as a means to “…enhance shareholder value.”  On the news, Warner Chilcott’s stock price rose as much as +20%.  However, as a member of the Nasdaq 100 Index, Warner Chilcott appeared on our December 16, 2011 at $14.02, when the stock was within 8.68% of the 1-year low.

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On Friday, April 27, 2012, WCRX closed at a price of $18.79, which was already a gain of +34% above the December 16, 2011 watch list price.  Now, with WCRX trading around $22 per share, we believe that the value component of WCRX has been eliminated and recommend that those who own the stock should consider selling the principal, at the very minimum.