Category Archives: Secular Bull Market

The Nasdaq Will Surprise Everyone

Review

On November 29, 2012, in an article titled “Dow Theory: Secular and Cyclical Markets“, we said the following:

“A common timeframe for our version of secular periods averages around 18.8 years based on the previous five periods.  This suggests that if the 2000 peak holds then the secular bear market should end in the years between 2016 to 2023.”

On January 1, 2018, in an article titled “Dow 130,000 by 2032”, we said the following:

“This is the first posting for 2018 and we want to be clear about what we see for the market.  Dow 130,000 is not specific to 2018 but to the secular market trend that we are in.”

In this article, we outline how the Nasdaq Composite is just getting warmed up.

Questions Remain about the Nasdaq

There is considerable concern about the run-up in the Nasdaq Composite Index.  Understandably, the run from the March 23, 2020 low has been meteoric.

image

Any major index that increases +75.73% in less than a year has got some technical and fundamental reversion to the mean ahead.  Applying Dow Theory (which encompasses fundamental, economic, and technical analysis) we arrive at downside targets to consider in the chart above.

How good is any talk of “reversion to the mean” or “Dow Theory” or downside risk considerations?  Let’s take the Dow Jones Industrial Average when it was almost at the same levels from the period of March 9, 2009 to the high on March 9, 2012.

image

Naturally, the indexes are different, the rate of increase is different, the time is different.  However, The price levels are essentially the same.  Since reasonable market analysis begins with precedent, we believe that what happened to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2009-2012 period is a decent starting point for the Nasdaq Composite.

As the ascending lines of the Nasdaq Composite show, as part of Dow Theory, the index has the following downside targets without raising any alarms:

  • 9,747.21
  • 9,458.56
  • 8,592.59

We’ve only added the 9,747.21 level because it is the first target that was achieved in the Dow Jones Industrial Average before the index reversed to the upside “permanently.”

Another concern brought up is the fact that the Nasdaq Composite valuation levels are extremely stretched.  This is a legitimate concern.  However, as noted below, the current rise in price is not beyond what has occurred for the index in the past.  In fact, the current increase is relatively modest in comparison.

image

Valuations matter, however, the precedent for the actual change in the index, in the five prior periods, noted in the table below based on the chart above, suggests that there is significant opportunity for additional dramatic change going forward.

image

Finally, there is the issue of secular bear and bull markets.  In our January 3, 2018 article titled “Dow 130,000 by 2032”we said the following:

“…this suggests that if the 2000 peak holds then the secular bear market should end in the years between 2016 to 2023.”

By 2018, it was clear to us that the secular bear market had come to an end (as opposed to our call that the cyclical bear market ended on August 23, 2009).

Looking at the Nasdaq Composite from 2000 to 2016, we see a period of 16 years which the index did not exceed the prior peak.  According to Dow Theory, this formation is considered a line.  According to Dow Theorist Robert Rhea:

Such a narrow fluctuation, to the experienced student of the averages, may be as significant as a sharp movement in either direction.

Rhea, Robert. The Dow Theory. Barron’s (1932). page 82.

Looking at the price change of the Nasdaq Composite, it is hardly a “narrow line” when the index goes from 5,046.86 to 1,119.40.  This is unless the index range is in question is looked back upon and realized as a narrow range.

image

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a similar line, from 1965 to 1982, the index traded in a range from 1000 to 539.  Looking back at those levels, compared to the current 28,000, seems laughable to compare.  We believe that at some point in the future, we’ll be looking back at the 5,000 on the Nasdaq Composite as a quaint notion.

Why is a “line” so important?  Because in the time that passes (16 years) giant tech companies have innovated, generated earnings, and in some cases initiated dividend payments.  The wealth generated in the last 16 years has not been accurately reflected in the index.  What is currently being seen is the index catching up to the moderate to high level of wealth creation that has occurred since 2000.

Conclusion

When compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the same price levels from 2009 to 2012, the Nasdaq Composite needs to correct but there is more room to run.  That is if the comparison between the indexes is appropriate.

When viewed from the year-over-year price activity since the inception of the index, the Nasdaq Composite has had a moderate run.

When looking at the Nasdaq Composite from the 2000 peak to 2016, the period of doldrums and underperformance has to be made up.

All we can do is watch and wait.  So far, the market is behaving as expected considering the circumstances being presented to us.

see also:

Rising Secular Trend in Interest Rates

As we have long advocated, the declining trend in interest rates is coming to an end and the secular trend in rates is up.  To provide a decent level of analysis on what might happen going forward, we have a comparison of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the 3-month Treasury from 1934 to the peak in May 1981.

image

Conventional wisdom says that as interest rates rise then stocks should underperform.  However, when contrasted to the interest rate sensitive Dow Jones Utility Average, we see that the index increased +1,321% from the April 1942 low to the March 1965 peak.

We contrast the change in the Dow Jones Utility Average to the 3-month Treasury to highlight what happened to the price of Silver in the same secular trend.

image

Historically, it is understood that rising interest rates mean rising commodity prices.  In the last secular trend, the price of silver increased modestly until, in the late stage of the cycle, all commodity prices go wild.  We believe that such a trend is likely to occur again.

Our general conclusion on the secular trend in rising interest rates is that the best alternative in the initial stages is stocks and commodities in late stage of the same trend.

For the past 25 years the commodity market and the stock market have moved almost exactly together. The index number representing many commodities rose from 88 in 1878 to 120 in 1881. It dropped back to 90 in 1885, rose to 95 in 1891, dropped back to 73 in 1896, and recovered to 90 in 1900. Furthermore, index numbers kept in Europe and applied to quite different commodities had almost exactly the same movement in the same time. It is not necessary to say to anyone familiar with the course of the stock market that this has been exactly the course of stocks in the same period ( source: Dow, Charles H. Review and Outlook. Wall Street Journal.February 21, 1901.)”

Dow 50k by 2023? How about 177k by 2032?

In a USA Today article titled “Dow hitting 50,000 by 2023? Market milestone is within reach, investor claims”, money manager Charles Lemonides says, “…investors ‘should build their portfolios recognizing Dow 50,000 is a real possibility’ by 2022 or 2023.”

image

This prediction sounds spectacular and harkens back to our January 3, 2018 article titled “Dow 130,000 by 2032.”  That article was premised on our November 2012 article suggesting that the secular bear market would end between 2016 and 2023.  After further analysis, in March 2013, we concluded that “…If the current implications are correct, we could be on the cusp of a run to Dow 100,000.”

What stands out about Lemonides’ forecast for the next five years?  While we were projecting a +12% compounded annual growth rate, Lemonides is forecasting a +15.09% compounded annual growth rate over the next five years.  If the +15.09% growth rate is projected out to 2032 then the Dow Jones Industrial Average would sit at 177,200.

Dow 130,000 by 2032

Summary

  • In 1999, Warren Buffett said that stock market returns would underperform over the next 17 years.
  • Cycles indicate that the next 17 years will be a secular bull market.
  • Volume data and price recovery were the keys to the change in the trend.
  • Magnitude of secular trends in the past point to 10-fold gains in DJIA.
  • The work of Edson Gould in 1935, 1979 and today.
  • Look for average real compounded annual returns of +12% v. the historical +7% real returns.

Real Estate: Cycle Analysis

On December 9, 2010, we wrote an article titled “Real Estate: The Verdict Is In”.  At the time, we said the following:

“As we come to the close of 2010, it appears that based on the narrow scope of sources that we’ve selected, the bottom in real estate has come and gone.”

Our call of a bottom was a bold claim at the time because of the following points against a rise in real estate:

Each of the above ideas were probably legitimate on their own and in a vacuum.  However, financial markets tend to discount all of the issues that are generally known.  Only a “black swan” event can take away the discounting mechanism of the markets.  Thankfully, it is precisely because a “black swan” can’t be predicted that makes it out of the purview of any market analysis.

Through the passage of time, we have been able to see that our guess for a bottom in the real estate cycle was fairly close, based on the indicators presented at the time.  This article will review the indicators that we cited in previous works.  Finally, we’ll review the real estate cycle as described by Roy Wenzlick, which is the basis for much of our projections on this topic.

The first indicator is the Housing Starts of New Privately Owned Housing Units.  Since our December 2010 article, the indicator has increased +124.44%, or more than double.

image

The next indicator is the Real Estate Loans at All Commercial Banks.  This indicator should be clear, if banks aren’t lending then homes won’t be sold.

image

The next indicator plots the price of real estate for the U.S.  Although there are regional differences, the general trend is the most important for assessing if a “rising tide is lifting all boats”.

image

Real Estate Cycle Analysis

Below we’ve included a revised and adjusted chart of Roy Wenzlick’s cycle of real estate based on the low of 2010/2011.

Continue reading

Dow Theory: Secular and Cyclical Markets

We often mention the concept of secular and cyclical markets in our discussion of Dow Theory.  So far, we believe that we’re in a secular bear market owing to the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average cannot meaningfully exceed prior peaks.  However, we feel it is necessary to provide a graphical representation of what a secular and cyclical market looks like.

Keep in mind that active analysis of Dow Theory provides cyclical indications of moves in the market which usually lasts from 2 to 6 years.  Depending on the circumstance, which usually hinges on the quality of analysis, Dow Theory also provides an indication of secular trend changes in the market.  However, secular trends usually encompass periods from 16 years to as many as 24 years.

In this assessment, we’re assuming that Dow Theory was only able to provide bullish signals at 1/4  of the move from the bottom and bearish signals 1/4 of the move from the top for each cyclical trend.  This is a very generous assumption in favor of those who are critical of the validity of Dow Theory as a market forecasting tool.

Historical Perspective and Highlights

First, let us start with the history of stock market secular trends from 1906 to the present broken into the various cyclical moves that can be easily identified (detailed review of stock market from 1860-1906 found here).  The first secular trend is from 1906 to 1924 in what is clearly a bear market.  Our definition of a secular bear market is the inability of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to exceed a prior high level for an extended period of time.  As seen in the chart below, the 1906 to 1924 period certainly fits the bill.

image

The secular bear market from 1906 to 1924 was 18 years long.  As indicated with the arrows (green arrows for cyclical bull markets and red arrows for cyclical bear markets) there were many instances where an investor could have avoided the losses of buy-and-hold if Dow Theory was applied.

What should follow a secular bear market is a secular bull market, however, the period from 1924 to 1942 was a combination of both with a quasi-secular bull market from 1924-1929 and a quasi-secular bear market from 1929-1932.  Charles H. Dow has commented that markets move like a pendulum, swinging from excessive gains to excessive losses. S.A. Nelson has specifically outlined Dow’s point by referring to the extremes of these swings in the market as “artificial advances” and “artificial depressions.” (found here).  William Peter Hamilton’s account of Dow Theory on November 17, 1924 was as follows:

“At the opening of the week the industrial and railroad share averages simultaneously broke through all previous points of resistance this year so decisively as to constitute by the Dow theory of analysis as emphatic and indication of a major bull market as has ever been discovered in the long history of the movements of these averages.  By the end of the week the industrials were up approximately three points and the railroads two points through their previous best prices this year.  That spells a dynamic movement of impressive proportions and unquestionably it forecasts in due time a further sustained upward movement that will eventually better every price yet seen.” (source: Hamilton, William Peter.  “What of the Market?. Barron’s. November 17, 1924. page 2.)

The compressed period of time that the Dow Industrial Average rose from 100 to 381 might have been the first clue that the gains were not sustainable.  As an example, in the secular bull market from 1942 to 1966, it took 12 years to rise an equal percentage amount.  Likewise, in the secular bull market from 1982, it took the Dow Industrials 13 years to equal the percentage gains made from 1924 to 1929. Fortunately for some and unfortunately for many, the 1924-1942 period provided both secular moves within a single secular timeframe.

image

Shortly before his passing, William Peter Hamilton, Dow Theorist and fourth editor of the Wall Street Journal, wrote his famous “Turn of the Tide” editorial in the Wall Street Journal and Barron’s indicating that the bull market move had ended when the Dow Industrials were trading at around 325.17 (source: “A Turn in the Tide”. Barron’s. October 28, 1929. page 14).  The follow-up analysis of a new bull market came from Dow Theorist Charles J. Collins who suggested that “…failure on the part of the rail average to confirm the weakness in the industrial list suggested a rather strong foundation to the market (source: Collins, Charles. Barron’s. August 8, 1932. page 5)”.  At that time, the Industrials were trading at the 67.71 level.  The subsequent move in the Dow Industrials to the March 1937 high was over +180%.  Likewise, the decline that followed to the 1942 low was equal to -48%.

With the stock market reeling from the “adjustment” from the 1929 peak and crash, the next move in the market should have been a secular bull market.  The next move in the market was, in fact, a secular bull market that ran from 1942 to 1966.  The ideal for any market forecaster is to be able to distinguish a secular bull market from a cyclical bull market within a secular bull trend.  The reason for this is because, if correct, investors can stay fully invested through the entire secular bull trend while taking advantage of short-term declines with new investment of funds.  Cyclical bull markets within a secular bear trend require investors to sell some or all of their stock to be repurchased at the next Dow Theory cyclical bull market indication.

image

The secular bull market move from 100 to 1,000 was every investor’s dream.  However, the stock market collapse and the “Great” Depression that preceded it kept the majority of investors out of the market until the final run-up from 1962 to 1966.  Naturally, just as the majority of investors became confident of the secular bull market, the secular bull market was on its last leg.  Richard Russell had the following to say of the 1966 Dow Theory bear market signal:

“Having failed to hit new highs on the April [1966] recovery, the two Averages again retreated.  On May 5 the March lows were penetrated to the accompaniment of heavy volume.  Based on the method formulated by Charles H. Dow at the turn of the century, the two Averages on May 5 gave the signal for a primary bear market.  We now know that the February-March [1966]decline was the first leg of the bear market, and the March-April [1966] rise was the first (upward) correction.  the second leg began in late April and remains in force (source: Russell, Richard. “Bear Market Signaled Under Dow Theory”. Barron’s. May 9, 1966. page 31.)

The secular bear market that followed from 1966 to 1982 seemed brutal on a relative basis.  However, it was no worse or better than the secular bear market from 1906 to 1924.  Much of the reason that the period from ‘66-‘82 seemed particularly difficult is mainly due to how recent it occurred rather than the relative depth in the market decline.  It lasted from 1966 to 1982 or 16 years.

image

The secular bear market from 1966 to 1982 experienced five cyclical bear markets and four cyclical bull markets.  For all intents and purposes, it was among the worst times to be a buy-and-hold investor.  However, our favorite article in review of this period is Jeremy Siegel’s  “Nifty Fifty Revisited” which showed what would happen if an investor had bought and held the hottest stocks from the peak in the market in 1972 (those stocks with the highest P/E ratios) and reviewed their performance until 1995 (PDF found here).  There is merit in buy-and-hold investing and for our money the Siegel article makes the case quite well, especially if the investor happens start investing in a secular bear market and has an investment horizon with a minimum of 20 years.

The secular bull market that followed the secular bear market of 1966 to 1982 lasted from 1982 to 2000 and saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise from 1,000 to approximately 11,500.  Although we’ve indicated that the year 2000 was the end to the secular bull market, a valid case can be made for 2007 as the end of the secular bull market.  In either case, the Dow Industrial Average is marginally above the 2000 level or below the 2007 peak.

image

Our interpretation that we’ve been in a secular bear market since 2000 or 2007 only holds water as long as 11,500/14,164 is the range that the Dow Jones Industrials trades in.  A common timeframe for our version of secular periods averages around 18.8 years based on the previous five periods.  This suggests that if the 2000 peak holds then the secular bear market should end in the years between 2016 to 2023.  We’re partial to the idea that the 2007 top was a secular peak.  Richard Russell had the following to say on the topic of Dow Theory shortly after the 2007 peak:

“Did last week’s market volatility make you queasy? If you believe in the Dow Theory, there was reason to be wary.  The Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation averages plunged to end-of-day lows of 12,845.78 and 4,672.35, respectively, on Aug. 16. Both then rallied. But while the industrials hit a record 14,164.53 on Oct. 9, the transports didn't come near a record, thus failing to confirm the DJIA's strength. This set up the potential for a classic Dow Theory bear-market signal” (Russell, Richard. “What Does Dow Theory Says”.  Barron’s. November 12, 2007. link here.).

image

Summary on Secular and Cyclical Trends

Classic secular bull market moves typically require investors to only buy in the beginning and hold ‘til the end.  The obvious challenge is to understand and accept that the prior secular bear market should be followed by a secular bull market.  This is a difficult psychological transition for investors after experiencing four or five cyclical bear market moves over the course of 16 to 18 years.

Classic secular bear markets require timing tools like Dow Theory to keep an investor’s expectation in check with the investing environment.  Alternatively, investors who expect to buy-and-hold during a secular bear market must have a time horizon that is exceptionally long in duration and hold stocks that provide income to offset inflation and possible lack of capital appreciation.  Jeremy Siegel’s article titled the “Nifty-Fifty Revisited” is an exceptional rationale to hold stocks through a secular bear market (PDF found here).

Although Dow Theory can inform an investor of being in a secular bull and bear market after the fact, it is of greatest use at calling cyclical bull and bear markets, especially within a secular bear market. So far, we happen to be in the most ideal period when Dow Theory could be of the most benefit to investors.

more: The Stock Market from 1860 to 1906