Category Archives: risk

Bitcoin Review

On January 12, 2017, after Bitcoin achieved our prior downside target of $772.12, we said the following:

“Those who wish to speculate on Bitcoin should assess the risks and consider buy[ing] at [the] current level.”

Anyone who bought based on our work should have known that on January 1, 2017, we had the following upside targets:

  • $1,158.18 (conservative)
  • $1,737.26 (mid range)
  • $2,316.35 (extreme)

What is important about our upside targets, issued on January 1, 2017, is that we emphasized a downside assessment was necessary after a parabolic run-up.  We expected that the price would need to experience a large decline before any material rise could ensue.  Shortly afterwards, on January 12, 2017, our downside targets were met.

On May 10, 2017, Bitcoin has achieved a new high of $1,750.  If this level can be sustained, we think that the extreme upside target of $2,316.35 is possible.  However, we have to acknowledge the downside targets that come with a parabolic increase.

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Serious speculators (as opposed to investors) in Bitcoin should consider the inevitable decline that is to come as a reaction to the parabolic rise.  Yes, there is a good chance that our target of $2,316.35 will be achieved.  However, if, as a speculator, you have enjoyed some or all of the run-up since our January 12, 2017 recommendation, then you probably want to be able to enjoy it.  We recommend selling now and watch for the ascending downside targets.

Clean Harbors Meets Downside Target

On January 28, 2015 we said the following:

“So far, CLH has adhered to the SRL that was initially outlined in 2012.  If we consider the period of 2007 to 2009, when the stock fell as low as $20.54 and extend that same decline to the current period, then CLH could decline as low as $41.40.  This assumption is predicated on the stock market not experiencing a precipitous decline from the current level.  A broad market decline would easily bring CLH to the ascending $23.43 level in the SRL.”

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The assessment was based on our February 2012 review of Clean Harbors when the stock was trading at $64.28.  Since Clean Harbors has reached our technical target, it is now time to assess the fundamentals through a source like Value Line Investment Survey and Morningstar.  Morningstar typically gives a bearish case on a stock so if Clean Harbors has full coverage it be helpful to carefully read the negative assessment to contrast the upside review.

Western Digital Corp. (WDC)

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Gilead Sciences Inc.

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Aaron’s Inc.

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