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Interesting Read
Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes
Why the oil price is falling
How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared
Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain
Swiss National Bank Starts Negative
Tice: Crash is Coming...Although
More on Edson Gould (PDF)
Schiller's CAPE ratio is wrong
Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s (PDF)
401k Crisis
Quick Link Archive
Category Archives: RGLD
Royal Gold 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Royal Gold (RGLD) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Royal Gold: SRL Update
On October 12, 2012, we posted the following SRL for Royal Gold:
We said the following of the above chart:
“The SRL for Royal Gold at $44.62 doesn’t seem outlandish given what has already occurred in the previous declines from prior peaks. The X marks the first decline after a “minor” parabolic move that was later exceeded on a larger scale to point A1, B1 and C1. Additionally, the X reflects the minimum retracement from the top and has provided consistent support for the price for RGLD.
“We’d consider buying RGLD if it declines to either of the support levels of X3 or C2. The movement of RGLD has been consistent with the price of gold (GLD) which is in stark contrast with gold stocks as represented by the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index (^XAU)....”
On July 12, 2013, we said the following of RGLD:
“RGLD has fulfilled almost all of our expectations for downside risk since October 2012. Although we’d much rather see this stock reach the extreme downside target of $33.28, we feel that purchases at the current level and below would be consistent with asset accumulation and wealth building, in contrast to those who were considering the stock at or near the October 2012 levels.”
So far, Royal Gold has adhered to the SRL outlined on October 12, 2012 and July 12, 2013 as displayed in the chart below.
Royal Gold has a mid-range upside target of $100.39 and an extreme upside target of $133.85 based on Gould’s Speed Resistance Line. However, the upside targets are somewhat immaterial when considered from the context of buying based on values.
Posted in Edson Gould, RGLD, SRL
Review: Royal Gold (RGLD) Speed Resistance Lines
On October 12, 2012 (found here), when Royal Gold (RGLD) was within 11 trading days of the all-time high at $89.27, we said the following: Continue reading
Posted in Edson Gould, RGLD, speed resistance line, SRL
Gold Stocks Near New Low
This is the list of gold related equities that we track within 10% of the one year low. We strongly recommend that you do your own research on these companies and assume that the downside risk is half of the current price, at minimum.
Gold Stock Indicator
Based on our preliminary work, we believe that gold stocks, as represented by the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index, will reach our long-term gold stock sell indication between July 15, 2013 and November 25, 2013.
This is our best estimate based on the current trajectory of our Gold Stock Indicator. As we get closer to the dates, we will be better able to project the gold stock long-term sell indication with what we believe to be a certain level of accuracy.
This estimate is subject to change if the short-term gold stock buy indication (green diagonal line) is broken to the downside which would bring us back to the long-term gold stock buy indication. The scenario that could easily break the downside trendline is a general stock market decline. Although Dow Theory indicates that this is a possibility, we're waiting for the appropriate confirmation either up or down.
The best example of where the stock market is right now is reflected in the chart below, from our September 21, 2012 Dow Altimeter:
Royal Gold (RGLD) Speed Resistance Lines
In the chart below we’ve provided Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines (SRL).
What is interesting about the above chart is the following:
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Point A1 to point A2 declined –60%
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Point B1 to point B2 declined –40%
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Point C1 to point C2 is a projected decline of –55%
The SRL for Royal Gold at $44.62 doesn’t seem outlandish given what has already occurred in the previous declines from prior peaks. The X marks the first decline after a “minor” parabolic move that was later exceeded on a larger scale to point A1, B1 and C1. Additionally, the X reflects the minimum retracement from the top and has provided consistent support for the price for RGLD.
We’d consider buying RGLD if it declines to either of the support levels of X3 or C2. The movement of RGLD has been consistent with the price of gold (GLD) which is in stark contrast with gold stocks as represented by the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index (^XAU), as indicated in the chart below.
Posted in Edson Gould, gold, Gold Stock Indicator, RGLD, Silver, SRL