Category Archives: Monsanto

“Scary” 1929 Chart Says Little About the Future

On February 11, 2014, Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch.com posted an article titled “Scary 1929 Market Chart Gains Traction (found here)”.  In the article, Hulbert suggests that the critics of the chart, which shows a parallel between the current market action since July 2012 and 1928-1929, are running out of explanations as to why the chart doesn’t have merit.

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One aspect missing from the Hulbert article is what it takes to get from the most recent high of 16,588 to the 1,658 level on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  In order to lose -89% in value, the Dow would need to decline first to 15k, 14k, 13k etc.  Leaving out these important hurdles on the downside ignores a wide swath of goings-on that needs to occur in between now and the doomsday low.  To fill the void that is unexamined by the Hulbert article, we’re going to review the various ways that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could decline to new lows.

Before offering our downside take on the market, we’d like to refer you to some basic issues that are mandatory to understanding how the stock market decline from 1929 was an anomaly, at best.  In previous work on the topic, we’ve addressed reasons why the 1929 stock market decline of -89% had more to do with reshuffling of the index by replacing stocks that had fallen significantly with new stocks that had appeared strong but were on the cusp of major declines.  Once the new stocks were added to the index they crashed hard while the stocks that were dropped from the index were at the beginning stages of recovery (2009 article found here).

In another piece, we outlined the fact that the decline of 1929 was followed by a recovery that was much faster than most investors know.  Our theory is that the multiple changes to the index artificially suppress the index on the way down and on the way up.  This resulted in the Dow taking 25 years to achieve breakeven status with 1929.  However, stocks that were not part of the index can be seen to achieve breakeven status on average by 1937.  One of our favorite examples is found in the chart of Monsanto Corp. below (2010 article found here).

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Monsanto (MON) Chart: 1929 to 1937

Below is an excerpt from a 1937 issue of Barron’s showing the price history of Monsanto (MON) from 1929 to 1937. The high price set in 1929 at $40 was marked down over 75% in 1932. Subsequent price movement brought the stock of Monsanto back to the 1929 high by the end of year 1933. By late 1935, Monsanto (MON) was just short of $100 a share.
We’re not totally clear about the specific dynamics that allowed for the price rise of MON at the market bottom. However, prior experience with the market decline from 2007 to 2009 and research of markets like 1837, 1857, 1866, 1873, 1884, 1893, 1907, 1929 and 1973 has shown us that the reaction to the devastating forces of stock price deflation is nearly equal in magnitude and timing.
We found this chart in line with our previous articles titled “Dow Jones’ Decline Largely Impacted by Index Changes” and “After the Crash, Recovery was Faster Than Most People Think” on the topic that the decline and recovery of many stocks was much quicker than most would imagine after 1929. In the case of Monsanto, the stock is shown to have recovered much quicker than previously indicated.

Sell Monsanto (MON) at the Market

Again, it is just our luck that Monsanto (MON) has done exactly what we had anticipated. On October 30th we issued a Speculation Observation which indicated that MON should be considered for short term gains. However, our upside target price was around $76, in this regard we were woefully incorrect.

MON has managed to climb to the level of $83.38 as of December 9th. Anyone who was bold enough to take our observation to heart would have a 22% gain on their hands. It is strongly recommend that a mental trailing stop is instituted to ensure retention of the gains. Personally, we would sell the stock and wait for new opportunities. Touc.

Speculative Observation: Monsanto (MON)

According to Google Finance, "Monsanto Company along with its subsidiaries, is a worldwide provider of agricultural products for farmers. The Company’s seeds, biotechnology trait products, and herbicides provide farmers with solutions to produce foods for consumers and feed for animals. The Company operates in two segments: Seeds and Genomics, and Agricultural Productivity."

Although Monsanto (MON) isn't a Dividend Achiever or a member of the Nasdaq 100, the company has a solid history and provides investors with an exceptional opportunity.

MON is currently trading within 5.85% of the the 52-week low. What is significant about the low that MON is approaching is that it is close to the November 2008 low. This is a critical support level for the stock which could indicate that a major reversal is ahead.

According to Dow Theory, MON is projected to decline to the following levels:

  • $52.17
  • $37.08
  • $21.99
  • $6.90
Each of the downside targets, based on Dow Theory, should provide some kind of support level. Interestingly, MON's 50% level, based on the decline from the prior peak and the July 2002 low, is at $67.90. This means that either the stock declines much further or the stock rebounds from here.

According to Value Investment Survey dated August 2009, MON typically reverts to a level of 17 times cashflow. Full year 2008 cash flow was $4.50 per share. This equals a price of $76.50 that the shares should revert to at some point in the future. Value Line seems to believe that, for 2009, MON should achieve cash flow of $5.55 per share which implies a mean price of $94.35. I would opt for the lower price just to play it safe. In the period from 1981 to 1996, Value Line had a smaller mean price to cash flow (13x). This means that as time has gone on since 81' to 96' MON has managed to improve their price to cash flow figures.

With MON trading at 11% below the historical mean value, as well as being within 6% of the low, this is a good opportunity to get your research in as the share price declines. Focus on the downside risk and good luck. Touc.

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