Category Archives: IPI

Consumer Sentiment: June 2020

We keep going back to our August 4, 2019 posting where we said the following of consumer sentiment:

“A trend doesn’t define the future prospects.  However, we believe that the [consumer sentiment] declining trend has not completely played out.  This means that we expect that the economy and stock market will languish, in the best case scenario.”

The Economy

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The Stock Market

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With the stock market at a zero percentage change from the August 5, 2019 level and the Industrial Production Index at crash worthy lows similar to 2008/2009, we think that our targets have been achieved.  However, we’re still very concerned about the risks going forward. Continue reading

Industrial Production Index

Below is a table with the number of instances when the Industrial Production Index declined at least five months in a row.  We have also noted whether or not there was a coincidence with the period of decline in the Industrial Production Index with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) definition of a recession.

Dow Theory: Industrial Production Index Points to Recession

The Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an important lagging indicator that is part of Dow Theory as suggested in Robert Rhea’s book Dow Theory Applied to Business and Banking.  Although seldom mentioned by modern Dow Theorists, the IPI is useful in confirming the validity of Dow Theory indications.  This explains why a Dow Theory primary bull market was not announced by Robert Rhea in the period from November 1929 to April 1930.  Although the stock market was rebounding from the “Great” Crash of 1929, the IPI was still in a declining trend,  highlighted in the red bar as shown in the chart below.

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In our last review of the Industrial Production Index on April 20, 2012, we had indicated that we’d need to see two consecutive months of decline in order for a confirmation of a recession while in a Dow Theory bear market.    Since that piece, we have not seen two consecutive months of declines.  However, as the data for the Industrial Production Index is continually updated, as much as six months into the past, we begin to see an emerging pattern. 

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Since January 2012, the Industrial Production Index has traded in a narrow range, based on the revised data.  Already the Industrial Production Index is below the July 2012 high and approaching the April 2012 low of 96.4705.  Falling below the April low could indicate that the recession had begun as early as January 2012.  The Industrial Production Index has not been mired in such a range since the end if the recession was called in June of 2009.  Additionally, the preliminary data suggests that the economic recovery has hit a snag and may be on the cusp of a full blown recession (as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research).

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As can be seen in the chart above, the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Industrial Production Index seem to have experiences similar troubles at around the same point in time.  True to form, the Dow Jones Transportation Index has gyrated widely to the downside with little ability to exceed the 2007 and 2011 highs.

From a historical standpoint, whenever the Industrial Production Index has peaked, 13 out of 17 times since 1920 (76.47%), the result was a recession call by the NBER.  All that is left at this point is for the Industrial Production Index to rise, fall or get revised significantly outside of the established range.  Rising or falling by a wide margin could definitively answer the question about whether we’re in a recession.  The range could be revised out of existence through the process of updating the figures. 

Our take is that there has to be a significant amount of economic growth through economic stimulus that dwarfs all prior efforts since 2007.  Outside of such efforts by monetary and fiscal actions, we believe that a recession could be considered in effect from either January 2012 or July 2012.

Industrial Production Index

In my previous discussion of the Industrial Production Index (IPI), I clearly made a mistake in my interpretation of the “price” action of the index. On March 16, 2009, I said that if the IPI fell below 97.8399 then we would face the equivalent of economic “dark ages.”

In looking at the movement of the index, I dismissed the peak of 95.3271 on May 1998 and the trough of July 1998 as a significant technical support/resistance level for the index. This appears to be a critical oversight since the June 2009 low in the IPI at 95.4571 appears to have created a temporary support level. Even though the difference between 97.8399 and 95.4571 is only 2.32%, I feel it is necessary to identify this issue in my analysis as a potential learning opportunity.


Now for the shameless self-promotion, in my January 27, 2009 analysis of the IPI index, I said, "Based on this most recent move the IPI is expected to decline at least to the December 2001 level of 97.8399." This observation was about as accurate as you could get. Additionally, I said, “…we're in for at least another six months of declines in the IPI.” This assessment was off by 1 month which isn't bad. As mentioned before, the IPI hit a temporary bottom in June 2009. Some folks who snicker at the thought of technical analysis being applied to an economic indicator that isn’t even a critical component of the U.S. economy have every right to question the method. However, the fruitless effort, in this instance, “seems” to have been useful.

Finally, let’s look at where I think the IPI index is possibly going from here. In the 90-year history of the reporting of the IPI, there has been only one declining period in which the index had temporarily gone up and then down more than once (fake out.) We’ve already had one fake out of the index when it sharply rose in October of 2008 and then continued downward. I don’t see (revealing my limitations) this index falling below the current trough of 95.4571 until it does a Dow Theory retrace of at least one, and possibly all three, of the following upside targets:

  • 101.1035
  • 106.7499
  • 112.3963

Implicit in my discussion of the IPI is that we are at a turning point for the economy. Based on the combination of the Dow Theory confirmation of July 23, 2009 and the IPI turning up from the June low, I will have to guess that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is going to proclaim June 2009 as the official end to the recession. The end to this recession will be lackluster and questioned from all corners. Additionally, the stock market will only follow the pattern of a cyclical bull market (bear market rally) within a secular (long term) bear market. I doubt that the general public will agree that the recession is over since jobs will not be as plentiful as the past. However, from the standpoint of an economist the recession is over provided the IPI June low is sustained over an extended period of time.

Again, the IPI index generally lags the stock market by 6 to 9 months. Therefore, the index could continue to rise while the stock market has reversed to the downside. We’ll have to see just how much the most recent trough remains in place.Touc.

Monday's Article:

Dow Theory

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