Category Archives: Insurance Watch List

Insurance Watch List: October 2017

Performance Review

The following is the performance of the Insurance Watch List stocks that we published in October 2016.

symbol name 2016 2017 % chg
THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. 78.97 97.68 23.69%
HALL Hallmark Financial Services Inc. 10.25 11.59 13.07%
CNO CNO Financial Group, Inc. 15.67 24.04 53.41%
ORI Old Republic International Corp. 18.32 19.6 6.99%

The average return for the four stocks was +24.29% as compared to the iShares Dow Jones US Insurance Index ETF (IAK) gain of +20.27%.  The analysts called the performance of the stocks fairly well as indicated in the chart below.

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Of the four stocks, only Hallmark Financial Services (HALL) was not able to exceed expectations (assuming the low estimate and the price of the stock maintained the same p/e ratio).

In our “Sell the Principal” section we outlined the stocks that we thought investors should consider selling the principal as the price of the stocks had exceeded all reasonable one year gains.  Below is the performance of the list of stocks in the order as presented at the time.

name 10/16.2016 10/6/2017 % change
Syncora Holdings Ltd. 1.35 2.06 52.59%
Genworth Financial, Inc. 5.05 3.63 -28.12%
Crawford & Company 11.68 11.89 1.80%
Hilltop Holdings Inc. 23.15 26.08 12.66%
Lincoln National Corporation 48.9 75 53.37%
Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. 91.89 92.98 1.19%
Principal Financial Group Inc. 52.33 66.65 27.36%
Kingsway Financial Services Inc. 5.65 5.95 5.31%
National Interstate Corporation 32.42 32 -1.30%
Stewart Information Services Corporation 46.36 38.01 -18.01%
Unum Group 36.37 52.54 44.46%

 

The entire list gained an average of +13.76% as compared to the iShares Dow Jones US Insurance Index ETF (IAK) gain of +20.27%. Only four stocks exceeded the performance of IAK (UNM, LNC, PFG, and SYCRF).  Meanwhile, the remaining list of stocks performed well below the +20.27%.  More than half the list showed below average or negative returns.  This month’s “Sell the Principal” list has refined how the data is interpreted with the stated goal of highlighting those stocks expected to register negative returns after a review in October 2018.

Insurance Watch List: September 2017

Below is the insurance watch list for the month of September 2017.  In additions, we have included the analyst one year estimated returns and a review of watch list stock.

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Insurance Watch List: July 2017

Below is the Insurance Watch List for July 2017:

Insurance Watch List: June 2017

Below is the performance of the May 2016:

symbol name May-16 Jun-17 % chg
SCRYY SCOR SE 3.29 4.06 23.40%
LFC China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. 10.81 15.5 43.39%
NWLI National Western Life Group, Inc. 205.51 320.56 55.98%
AXS AXIS Capital Holdings Limited 54.33 63.61 17.08%
RE Everest Re Group Ltd. 178.01 253.98 42.68%
IPCC Infinity Property and Casualty Corp. 76.55 94.15 22.99%
AAME Atlantic American Corp. 3.45 3.75 8.70%
MURGY Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Aktiengesellschaft 18.86 19.88 5.41%
ESGR Enstar Group Limited 155.17 194.5 25.35%
BWINA Baldwin & Lyons Inc. 23 23.9 3.91%
       

The average change of the entire equal weighted list from May of 2016 was +24.89%.  This is contrasted with the +19.38% gain that was achieved by the iShares Dow Jones US Insurance Index.

Insurance Watch List: April 2017

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the Insurance Watch List dated April 17, 2016:

symbol name 1-yr % chg
OB OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. 29.29%
AFSI AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. -36.81%
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings Inc. 36.12%
ZFSVF Zurich Insurance Group AG 21.72%
AXS AXIS Capital Holdings Limited 19.59%
SAFT Safety Insurance Group Inc. 26.33%
AIG American International Group, Inc. 7.77%
FFG FBL Financial Group Inc. 8.70%
AV Aviva plc -6.93%
AFG American Financial Group Inc. 38.31%

The best performing insurance stock was American Financial Group (AFG) with a gain of +38.31%.  The worst performing stock was AmTrust Financial Services (AFSI) with a decline of –36.81%.  The average change for the entire watch list was +14.14%.  This is contrasted by the iShares US Insurance ETF (IAK) change of +17.59% in the same period of time.

Below we see that the analysts had their challenges.   However, the estimates for AIG in the last year were right on target.  This suggests that it would be worth watching closely what the analysts have to say about AIG going forward.

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Insurance Watch List: 2017

The following are the insurance stocks to watch for the coming year: