Category Archives: IBM

Bubble Fiction and Market Reality

There is a lot of discussion regarding the possibility that the stock market is in a bubble.  We have been steadfast in saying that the market is behaving normal.

In two prior articles, we have outlined the long term cycles averaging 16-17 years.  The first article “Dow 130,000” dated January 3, 2018, quotes Warren Buffett’s 1999 comment stating:

“I think it's very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like--anything like--they've performed in the past 17.”

The second article titled “The Nasdaq Will Surprise Everyone” dated September 6, 2020, we make the following observation:

“Looking at the Nasdaq Composite from 2000 to 2016, we see a period of 16 years which the index did not exceed the prior peak.”

The points made by Buffett in 1999 and in our 2020 article is not based on hopes, in fact, these claims are derived from the history of market data.

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The data from 1802 to 1999, as cited in Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters dated January 31, 2001, makes it clear that markets are not acting especially unusual.

In addition to markets acting as they should, so too are the critics of the market’s rise.  They are claiming that we are in a bubble that will result in a Great Depression.  These critics are also claiming that the market rise is fueled by the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

Unfortunately, this claim of central bank intervention has little merit when viewed from the table of data above, in the period from 1836-1914, when there was no central bank in the United States.  Our own work titled “Is the Fed Responsible for the Stock Market Rise Since 2009?” dated February 17, 2014 on the period from 1836-1914 highlights how much central banks had little to no impact on the direction of the stock market.

Recently there has been concern about the over-extended nature of tech stocks, since they have increases substantially in spite of the pandemic.  To our mind, it is especially tech stocks that should benefit during the pandemic, since they now are in the best position to sell their software without the need for an actual brick-and-mortar outlet.

The increase in tech stocks has pushed the Nasdaq well above the year 2000 peak.  However, as we’ve indicated in our September 6, 2020 article, a rangebound market like the Nasdaq from 2000-2016 should be expected to increase exceptionally.

One way to look at the outcome of rangebound market is to compare one of the top stocks in 2000 to a top stock in the similar stage in the previous cycle peak (1966).  Below we have compared the price of IBM from 1967 to the S&P 500 to the performance of Microsoft from 2000 to 2021.

I967-1987: IBM v. S&P 500

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Although we could not get the price data from the 1966 peak, the truncated view still represents the 21-year performance needed.  Why did we choose IBM to compare to the S&P 500?  Because the stock is noted as a “Go-Go” in the 1966-1973 period.  This mean that IBM would get unwarranted investor attention in spite of being fundamentally overvalued.  Worth pointing out is the fact that at the end of the 21-year (1966-1987) period was met with the stock market crash of 1987.

2000-2021: MSFT v. S&P 500

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Microsoft (MSFT) has managed to replicate the “action” of the IBM example against the S&P 500 from 1967-1987.  Microsoft didn’t achieve a breakeven in price until 2016 and did not accomplish parity with the S&P 500 until 2018.  This is a significant period to go without exceeding the market, suggesting that a level of exceptional outperformance is expected. To top off the 21-year period, the crash in the market in 2020 matches the 1987 crash experienced by IBM after 20 to 21 years after peaking.

Thoughts

Eerily, the market returns for both periods under review are quite similar for both the stocks and the index.  A good market analyst would say, “if you compare total return then the returns aren’t the same.”  This is accurate.  However, as with nominal rates, market participants respond to what they can readily see and not the factual changes seen relating to real rates and total returns.

When viewed from this perspective, it should be clear that what we are currently watching in the market is very much a repeat market cycles and does NOT YET reflect a bubble market.

See Also:

IBM 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for International Business Machines (IBM) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

IBM: An Act of Desperation?

On April 18, 2012, we said of IBM:

“In this case, the dividend has been rising much faster than the stock price, among the many reasons that Buffett might be interested in a technology stock near an all-time high.  Now, just imagine what the stock will look like after falling to a 52-week low.”

On July 23, 2015, we said:

“We think that a value investor would have fun pouring over the data to determine the actual value of IBM.   Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] indicate that the conservative downside target for IBM is $130.  However, we think a process of accumulation at the current price, and below, is a prudent long-term strategy.”

On May 4, 2018, we said:

“For the time being, IBM is reasonably priced for a retest of the 2012 peak in the Altimeter.  The stock price would be approximately $362.  Keep in mind that the stock still has the prospect of retesting the prior low at $120.  The 2008 low of $80 is a consideration but not expected at this time.”

Below we have outlined the commentary dates and the relative price of IBM.

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Our interpretation of the data is that IBM is at a critical stage given their recent investment in Red Hat (RHT).  There are some who are asking whether or not IBM has overpaid for RHT.  To put an end to the discussion, we show a comparison between RHT and IBM since the March 2009 low.

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The concept of cloud computing and its role wasn’t new to IBM in 2015.  Yet, at a comparable share price, in early 2016 (red arrows), IBM could have bought RHT at $70 instead of the current bid at $190.

The $190 takeout offer exceeds the early 2016 price by +171% and was +62% above the closing price of RHT on October 26, 2018. This deal doesn’t pass the smell test.

We will close with the following observations and price targets: Continue reading

IBM: Now That Buffett Is Gone

In April 18, 2012, we said:

“In this case, the dividend has been rising much faster than the stock price, among the many reasons that Buffett might be interested in a technology stock near an all-time high.  Now, just imagine what the stock will look like after falling to a 52-week low.”

On July 23, 2015, we said of IBM:

“We think that a value investor would have fun pouring over the data to determine the actual value of IBM.   Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] indicate that the conservative downside target for IBM is $130.  However, we think a process of accumulation at the current price, and below, is a prudent long-term strategy.”

Now that Warren Buffett is no longer a selling point for potential new buyers, what do we think of IBM?

International Business Machines

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IBM: A Value Investor’s Delight

In April 2012, we published an article titled, “What Does Warren Buffett See In IBM?”  At the time we concluded the article with the following thought:

“…just imagine what IBM will look like after falling to a 52-week low.”

A reader of our article took exception to the idea of IBM declining in price with the remark:

“I have no idea why you think you could buy IBM on a 52 week low. There is nothing fundamental about the company that would lead one to think that might happen. IBM is a difficult company to short because people who own it primarily intend to hold it for a longer term, do not trade on margin, and do not sell their shares based on fear (Momintn. What Does Warren Buffett See in IBM? April 19, 2015. link.).”

Since our article, IBM has declined from $207 to $161 with upside movement being limited to $213.

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In spite of the price decline of nearly –22% since 2012, IBM has increased the dividend by +53%.   This has resulted in a situation where the price of IBM has becomes very compelling from a value perspective.  As indicated in our original article on IBM, the growth of the dividend has become an overpowering force which is creating a stock that could eclipse all expectation for long-term investors.  This leaves aside the topic of IBM share repurchases which Warren Buffett discussed in his 2011 shareholder letter.

Our premise of IBM’s valuation is narrowly perched on the work of Edson Gould’s Altimeter.  Below is an update of Gould’s Altimeter since our April 2012 article.

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According to Gould’s Altimeter, IBM is now undervalued below the levels of the 2008 low.  We think that a value investor would have fun pouring over the data to determine the actual value of IBM.   Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] indicate that the conservative downside target for IBM is $130.  However, we think a process of accumulation at the current price, and below, is a prudent long-term strategy.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 25, 2013

Below are the 11 companies on our U.S. Dividend Watch List that are within 11% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 18, 2013

Below are the 14 companies on our U.S. Dividend Watch List that are within 11% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Continue reading

February Ex-Dividend Dates

Below are the approximate ex-dividend dates for the month of February 2013 for companies that appear on our U.S. Dividend, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Transportation/Industrial Index and International Dividend Watch Lists. All companies are ranked by ex-dividend dates.

Companies that show up on our Watch Lists could be considered the equivalent of the bargain bin of high quality blue chip stocks. Because these companies have increased their dividends every year for at least 10 years in a row (or have had similar dividend policies in the past) or are part of major indexes and within 20% of their respective 52-week low, you know that you’re not overpaying for a company that has demonstrated profitability and the ability to rebound from challenging times.

Symbol Company Price % from yr low Qtrly Yield payout ratio Ex-date
(IBM) International Business Machines $203.19 11.71% 0.43% 23.66% 2/6/2013
(AA) Alcoa Inc. $8.93 12.17% 0.33% 66.67% 2/6/2013
(FNFG) First Niagara Financial Group Inc. $7.98 12.41% 1.00% 80.00% 2/6/2013
(BBT) BB&T Corporation $30.92 15.04% 0.75% 34.07% 2/6/2013
(CWT) California Water Service Group $19.36 14.99% 0.80% 58.72% 2/7/2013
(XOM) Exxon Mobil Corporation $89.79 16.31% 0.63% 23.51% 2/7/2013
(ALTR) Altera Corp. $34.49 16.46% 0.30% 23.26% 2/7/2013
(SJW) SJW Corp. $26.45 17.24% 0.65% 59.84% 2/7/2013
(WBS) Webster Financial Corp. $22.44 18.64% 0.45% 21.51% 2/8/2013
(AAPL) Apple Inc. $455.49 4.44% 0.58% 24.03% 2/11/2013
(STBA) S&T Bancorp Inc. $18.47 17.79% 0.80% 50.85% 2/12/2013
(MSEX) Middlesex Water Co. $19.51 11.96% 0.95% 87.21% 2/13/2013
(UMH) UMH Properties Inc. $10.38 12.45% 1.75% 514.29% 2/13/2013
(BRCM) Broadcom Corp. $32.56 13.81% 0.33% 35.20% 2/13/2013
(BA) The Boeing Company $76.20 13.96% 0.65% 37.96% 2/13/2013
(DD) E. I. du Pont de Nemours $47.77 14.74% 0.90% 58.31% 2/13/2013
(GRC) Gorman-Rupp Co. $29.88 17.13% 0.33% 28.37% 2/13/2013
(RBA) Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers $21.18 18.87% 0.55% 62.03% 2/13/2013
(EGN) Energen Corp. $47.80 19.21% 0.30% 16.52% 2/13/2013
(PRK) Park National Corp. $65.80 8.55% 1.43% 77.05% 2/20/2013
(MHP) The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. $46.99 12.91% 0.48% 37.09% 2/22/2013
(BOH) Bank of Hawaii Corporation $48.36 16.74% 0.93% 49.05% 2/26/2013
(CTWS) Connecticut Water Service Inc. $29.38 9.78% 0.83% 61.78% 2/27/2013
(TRMK) Trustmark Corporation $23.48 12.84% 0.98% 50.83% 2/27/2013
(MCD) McDonald's Corp. $95.29 14.33% 0.80% 57.46% 2/27/2013
(AJG) Arthur J Gallagher & Co. $37.88 12.12% 0.93% 88.05% 2/28/2013
 

Watch List Summary

The first stock on our list is IBM (IBM).  After our April 19, 2012 titled “What Does Warren Buffett See In IBM?” (found here) the stock has been in a consolidation pattern.  Despite the critics, IBM managed to fall within 5% of the 52-week low on November 14, 2012.  With the stock currently trading within 12% of the 1-year low and a healthy payout ratio of  24%, the stock is well positioned for those interested in long-term positions.  We’re including an updated version of Edson Gould’s Altimeter which suggests that IBM is significantly undervalued based on the on dividend relative to the stock price.

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According to Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines, IBM has the downside targets of $137.45 and $72.

Another notable stock on our list is Apple with an ex-dividend date of February 11, 2013.  On April 14, 2012, we projected the conservative downside target for Apple (AAPL) at $424.15 and the extreme downside target of $212.08 (found here).  On an intraday basis, Apple fell within 3% of our April 2012 conservative downside target.  Regardless of the market conditions, according to Dow Theory, Apple has upside targets of $528.28 and $616.68 before re-testing the previous highs.

If you happen to be researching these companies for potential investment, it would be advisable to consider the ex-dividend date prior to possible purchases. Owning the shares of the company that you're interested in before the ex-dividend date entitles you to the upcoming dividend payment.

Owning the shares on or after the ex-dividend date means that you would have to wait at least three months before receipt of the next dividend payment. Please verify the ex-dividend date and payout ratio before committing funds to these stocks. Additionally, do not base your next long or short-term purchase on the dividend payment or yield. Instead, get as much research in as you possibly can before the ex-dividend date "just in case" you're actually interested in buying the stock. Payout ratios that exceed 100% should be considered speculative investments.

What Does Warren Buffett See in IBM? Maybe This

We don’t talk fundamentals much, if at all.  However, the chart below says a lot about why Warren Buffett might bother with buying IBM, a technology company, when the stock is trading near an all time high.

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Buffett's latest annual report goes to great length in citing IBM's stock repurchase plan among other reasons why he bought the company's shares.  Buffett says the following:

"Let’s do the math. If IBM’s stock price averages, say, $200 during the period, the company will acquire 250 million shares for its $50 billion. There would consequently be 910 million shares outstanding, and we would own about 7% of the company. If the stock conversely sells for an average of $300 during the five-year period, IBM will acquire only 167 million shares. That would leave about 990 million shares outstanding after five years, of which we would own 6.5%.

"If IBM were to earn, say, $20 billion in the fifth year, our share of those earnings would be a full $100 million greater under the 'disappointing' scenario of a lower stock price than they would have been at the higher price. At some later point our shares would be worth perhaps $1.5 billion more than if the 'high-price' repurchase scenario had taken place." (Source: 2011 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report. page 6)

In order for IBM to make ever increasing dividend payments and massive stock repurchases, IBM has to be generating serious cash flow.  The combination of the two are creating an undervalued situation that may not exist for quite some time in the future.

As we’ve said before, Edson Gould’s Altimeter is a summary of relative values for a stock's price which only requires additional fundamental information for support.  We saw a similar undervalued Altimeter in Transatlantic Holdings (TRH) and Wesco Financial (WSC) which prompted our articles titled "Transatlantic Holdings: A Value Proposition Worth Consideration" and "Wesco Financial: Fundamentals and Technicals Are Aligned" before Buffett made a bid for both companies.

In this case, the dividend has been rising much faster than the stock price, among the many reasons that Buffett might be interested in a technology stock near an all-time high.

Now, just imagine what the stock will look like after falling to a 52-week low.