Category Archives: FDO

Performance Review: Family Dollar

On March 31, 2014, we summarized our thoughts on Family Dollar (FDO) in a Quick Take posting with the following:

“Falling below the $55.07 support line suggests that FDO could decline to $47 in the near term.  Investors interested in FDO could break their investment into at least two purchases, the first being 60% of the intended amount now and the second purchase of 40% at either of the two indicated support levels at $44.95 or $34.83.”

Like moths to a flame, we were encouraged by Value Line Investment Survey’s assessment that “…would-be investors to look else-where.” As we saw it, the fundamentals and technicals supported the idea that Family Dollar was worth investing in (at least 60% of funds committed as part of a balanced portfolio).

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Review: Family Dollar

Today it was announced that Dollar General (DG) is considering a bid for Family Dollar (FDO).  This recent indication only adds to the hype that has suddenly fallen upon FDO.  On March 31, 2014, we wrote a Quick Take on Family Dollar that had the following conclusion:

“Investors interested in FDO could break their investment into at least two purchases, the first being 60% of the intended amount now and the second purchase of 40% at either of the two indicated support levels at $44.95 or $34.83.”

It appears that our indication to consider FDO at the $57.88 range was appropriate as the stock never reverted to any of the suggested downside targets and now trades at $77.47 or +33% higher.  This is the second call in a row that FDO has delivered for us.  FDO appeared on our watch list of February 17, 2013 which prompted our research and subsequent purchase on March 5, 2013. There is significant room for fine tuning which we will eventually examine going forward with these recommendations.

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Quick Take: Family Dollar

“If my job was to pick a group of 10 stocks in the Dow Jones that would outperform the average itself, I would probably not start by trying to pick the 10 best. Instead, I would try to pick the 10 or 15 worst performers and take them out of the sample, and work with the residual.” -Warren Buffett

Source:

  • "Track Record Is Everything" by Warren Buffett, Across the Board, October 1991. The Conference Board.
  • Krass, Peter. The Book of Investment Wisdom. John Wiley & Sons. 1999. page 3. (found here)

Transaction Alert

We've executed the following actions:

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2008 Transaction Overview

Below are all of my closed transactions for 2008 with the percentage realized gain or loss along with the percentage of the portfolio of each position. Closed positions are those that were done after the purchase of the stock took place. Therefore, purchases that took place in 2007 may have been close in 2008 while purchases in late 2008 may not have reflected a gain or loss until 2009. As an example, FDO was purchased in late December 2007 and sold late January 2008.
After transaction costs, the total return in the portfolio for 2008 was 14.35%. The dividend yield received on the account was 2.53%, with the dividend accounting for 17.62% of the total change in the account value. I am open to questions about the rational for selecting a particular stock at a given time during 2008. One thing that will be noticed about the differences between 2008 and 2009 is that 2009 has far fewer transactions.
Because this portfolio actually made money when the major indices lost close to 40% in 2008, I'm hoping to replicated this approach (mainly to avoid losing money in a market downturn.) I would appreciate any constructive insights or thoughts by you the reader. I'm hoping this will be an instructive moment for everyone involved. If you don't wish to post in the comment section then send me an email.I will be posting my transaction history for 2009 here shortly.

-Touc
Symbol
Close date
Total % Gain % of Portfolio
(FDO)
 
1/31/2008
 
10.65%
 
96.67%
(WSC)
 
2/11/2008
 
-3.93%
 
94.28%
(AIG)
 
2/28/2008
 
12.52%
 
82.65%
(CTAS)
 
3/13/2008
 
-3.81%
 
29.43%
(CDE)
 
3/13/2008
 
-12.42%
 
1.91%
(BSC)
 
3/14/2008
 
7.33%
 
26.10%
(HTX)
 
3/24/2008
 
1.73%
 
29.52%
(KGC)
 
3/24/2008
 
-16.73%
 
38.15%
(CTAS)
 
4/16/2008
 
-4.34%
 
31.11%
(GSS)
 
4/16/2008
 
-13.21%
 
1.77%
(NC)
 
7/23/2008
 
27.30%
 
32.11%
(MSA)
 
8/11/2008
 
19.02%
 
36.71%
(WIN)
 
8/14/2008
 
5.55%
 
27.27%
(BGG)
 
8/27/2008
 
1.27%
 
31.38%
(ANAT)
 
9/9/2008
 
-11.64%
 
28.26%
(EXPD)
 
9/9/2008
 
-5.51%
 
33.01%
(HPQ)
 
9/9/2008
 
115.03%
 
0.07%
(NSEC)
 
9/9/2008
 
-17.36%
 
3.08%
(TDS)
 
9/9/2008
 
-3.97%
 
38.10%
(NEM)
 
9/17/2008
 
3.27%
 
32.03%
(HL)
 
9/18/2008
 
5.70%
 
39.06%
(AIG)
 
9/23/2008
 
33.94%
 
38.27%
(ANAT)
 
9/29/2008
 
2.80%
 
29.25%
(ADM)
 
9/30/2008
 
-8.43%
 
20.77%
(WAG)
 
9/30/2008
 
-1.75%
 
44.09%
(TMR)
 
10/7/2008
 
-14.66%
 
11.36%
(NXG)
 
10/7/2008
 
-12.72%
 
11.40%
(AEM)
 
10/10/2008
 
-3.03%
 
15.58%
(FNM)
 
10/10/2008
 
-46.25%
 
7.14%
(GSS)
 
10/10/2008
 
-8.66%
 
12.11%
(JOF)
 
10/14/2008
 
2.34%
 
22.18%
(DOG)
 
10/15/2008
 
1.14%
 
43.23%
(AIG)
 
10/20/2008
 
-2.55%
 
66.35%
(BMI)
 
10/22/2008
 
-5.40%
 
35.38%
(EUM)
 
10/27/2008
 
5.26%
 
46.63%
(AEM)
 
10/28/2008
 
-4.08%
 
25.83%
(ABX)
 
10/28/2008
 
-2.92%
 
24.26%
(CTL)
 
10/31/2008
 
-9.93%
 
34.18%
(NC)
 
10/31/2008
 
-0.14%
 
43.42%
(NC)
 
11/7/2008
 
-12.16%
 
49.47%