Category Archives: expd

Expeditors International 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: August 28, 2015

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the companies that appeared on our August 26, 2014 watch list.

symbol Name 2014 2015 % chg
MAT Mattel, Inc. 34.66 23.2 -33.06%
CA CA Technologies, Inc. 28.31 27.26 -3.71%
SPLS Staples, Inc. 11.06 13.75 24.32%
WFM Whole Foods Market, Inc. 38.495 32.85 -14.66%
XLNX Xilinx Inc. 41.78 42.27 1.17%
FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. 102.5 61.6 -39.90%
FAST Fastenal Company 45.73 38.69 -15.39%
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. 53.51 76.73 43.39%
EXPD Expeditors Intl of Wash 41.64 49.66 19.26%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. 119.06 142 19.27%

The list of stocks achieved an average gain of +0.07% compared to the Nasdaq 100 gain of +6.28%.

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This watch list achieved exceptional performance based on the analyst estimates as six of the ten stocks exceeded analyst expectations (MAT, WFM, DLTR, EXPD, SPLS, SRCL).

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 stocks worth your consideration along with the analyst estimates of price change for the coming year.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: April 26, 2013

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from yr low
BIDU Baidu, Inc. 85.02 17.87 4.76 - 7.77 2.46%
EXPD Expeditors International. 35.42 22.56 1.57 1.6 3.61 3.57%
FFIV F5 Networks, Inc. 74.2 21.2 3.5 - 4.24 5.10%
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical 38.55 17.13 2.25 2.8 1.44 5.24%
ALTR Altera Corp. 31.2 18.14 1.72 1.3 3.16 5.44%
GRMN Garmin Ltd. 34.72 12.58 2.76 5.1 1.96 6.77%
ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. 486.76 28.57 17.04 - 5.16 6.94%
AVGO Avago Technologies Limited 32.11 14.27 2.25 2.4 3.19 8.11%
AAPL Apple Inc. 417.205 9.46 44.11 2.7 3.01 8.34%
WFM Whole Foods Market, Inc. 88.61 33.43 2.65 0.9 4.62 8.87%
CTXS Citrix Systems, Inc. 61.8 33.23 1.86 - 3.76 9.25%

Watch List Summary

Baidu (BIDU) has topped our list this week.  Despite having “unfettered” access to the Chinese market for search, the stock continues its long slide from the high price of $165.

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Apparently, in the controlled environment of internet search in China, competitors are gaining ground in terms of market share.  Since Google (GOOG) exited the search arena in China on April 10, 2010, the stock price performance of Google and Baidu has been exactly the same, albeit through opposite routes as indicated in the chart below.

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There is at least one lesson in this reversal of fortune for Baidu and the departure from China by Google as it relates to the stock price, the largest market in the world is not necessary for a stock price to rise.  In fact, it could be considered that if you’re in the largest market, after having tapped into every other market on the planet, then you’re probably at the end of the line in terms of growth.  This brings us to the view that Baidu has some opportunity for growth since its global reach is limited, for now.

In the February 15, 2013 Value Line Investment Survey, fair value estimates for Baidu are:

  • 2010: $34.60
  • 2011: $68.00
  • 2012: $104.00
  • 2013: $124.00
  • 2015-2017: $210.00

The Speed Resistance Lines for Baidu are very compelling at this time as shown below:

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The conservative downside target of $93.43 has been achieved and we are now sitting at the extreme downside target of $54.79. All indications, based on the SRL, are that Baidu is worth considering in a two stage purchase plan, once at the current level and again at $67 or lower.

Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the Nasdaq 100 Watch List, we have taken the top 5 stocks from April 27, 2012 (found here). The top 5 companies from the watch list are provided below with the closing price from April 27, 2012 to April 26, 2013.

Symbol
Company 2012 2013 % Change
CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide  59.02 58.44 -0.98%
FSLR First Solar, Inc. 18.35 44.08 140.22%
EXPD Expeditors Int’l 39.90 35.42 -11.23%
CTRP Ctrip.com Int’l 21.66 22.22 2.59%
EA Electronic Arts Inc. 15.32 17.88 16.71%
Average 29.46%
NDX Nasdaq 100 Index 3420.80 3747.15 9.54%

As can been seen in the table above, First Solar (FSLR) is the stock that carried the performance for the top 5 stocks.  If FSLR were excluded the gain for the top 5 if bought and held for the full year would have been +1.42%.  To be honest, we would not have bought FSLR at that time but this explains why we run these numbers.  We want to see how well or poorly an investor would do if they knew nothing about the names and simply bought the top five stocks.  Four of the top five stocks gained at least +10% with Expeditors Intl (EXPD) being the only stock to fall short of that mark.

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The three stocks that we identified to be of interest from the April 27, 2012 watch list had the following performance in the last year as compared the Nasdaq 100 Index.

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All three of the stocks, Symantec (SYMC), Infosys (INFY) and Electronic Arts (EA) hit the first estimated downside target before rising above the watch list price.  All three of the stocks gained at least +15% within the year.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: March 29, 2013

Below are the 16 companies on our U.S. Dividend Watch List that are within 11% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

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Transaction Alert

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: May 18, 2012

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield Price/Book % from Low
FSLR First Solar, Inc. 13.66 - -7.01 0 0.4 0.08%
GMCR Green Mountain Coffee 24.05 11.56 2.08 0 1.74 0.17%
CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide 58.88 21.96 2.68 2.2 7.78 0.26%
EXPD Expeditors Int'l of Washington 37.32 21.57 1.73 1.5 3.8 0.38%
SYMC Symantec Corporation 14.74 9.39 1.57 0 2.12 0.41%
CTRP Ctrip.com International Ltd. 18.91 18.01 1.05 0 2.59 0.53%
SNDK SanDisk Corp. 31.52 8.81 3.58 0 1.12 0.59%
WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd. 101.94 21.62 4.72 2 46.03 0.91%
RIMM Research In Motion Limited 10.99 4.95 2.22 0 0.58 0.92%
INFY Infosys Ltd. 42.87 14.29 3 1.3 3.69 0.97%
NTAP NetApp, Inc. 33.06 22.01 1.5 0 3.07 0.98%
FOSL Fossil, Inc. 70.28 14.99 4.69 0 3.9 1.02%
EA Electronic Arts Inc. 14.1 61.3 0.23 0 1.91 1.95%
APOL Apollo Group Inc. 32.02 6.97 4.6 0 3.54 3.52%
ORCL Oracle Corporation 25.61 13.42 1.91 0.9 3.05 3.60%
MCHP Microchip Technology Inc. 30.49 18.48 1.65 4.5 3 4.06%
VMED Virgin Media, Inc. 21.48 53.17 0.4 0.7 7.83 4.68%
GOLD Randgold Resources Limited 76.45 16.63 4.6 0.5 3.06 4.86%
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 12.08 14.75 0.82 0 1.82 5.32%
AMAT Applied Materials Inc. 10.36 10.23 1.01 3.5 1.55 6.80%
VOD Vodafone Group plc 26.1 12.08 2.16 3.6 1.01 7.36%
LRCX Lam Research Corporation 37.57 16.62 2.26 0 1.73 7.93%
ALTR Altera Corp. 33.23 16.45 2.02 1 3.46 9.35%
SPLS Staples, Inc. 13.07 9.39 1.39 3.3 1.29 9.46%

Watch List Summary

We’d like to address the first four companies on our list with a rating of AVOID or SELL for the following reasons:

  • First Solar (FSLR):  We never believed in the attributes of the solar industry despite all the claimed benefits to the environment.  If a detailed examination of the solar industry was done for the period of 1970 to 1980, you would find that the reasons for the lack of success then is re-emerging today.  FSLR might be a great speculation, however, anyone wishing to buy the stock should be willing to accept 100% loss or avoid the stock altogether.  As was the case in the 1970’s, the “top tier” solar companies will probably get acquired by the major oil companies.  However, the timing of such an acquisition is too difficult for us to predict.  Therefore, the safest postures is to assume more downside risk with little sustainable upside opportunity.
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR):  We’ve had a history of calculating the downside risk associated with GMCR.  On October 25, 2011 (found here), we published Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] which indicated that the downside risk for the stock was between $59.93 and $37.21 (at the time GMCR was trading at $64.75).  In that same posting we said that if GMCR were to fall below $37.21, then the next downside target is the absurdly low level of $3.  Even if $3 is never achieved, falling from the current price of $24.05 to $12.02 is too much pain to accept.
  • C.H. Robinson (CHRW) and Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD): Our recent Dow Theory (found here) indication pointing to an end to the bear market rally with the joint decline of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average means that large declines may lie ahead.  Since the Transportation Index has led the way up, it stand to reason, and experience, that the index will lead the way down.  We believe that CHRW and EXPD are in for more pain and faster than most other stocks because they are in the business of freight forwarding and logistics.

Companies that we’re excited to see on our watch list are as follows:

  • Microchip Technology (MCHP):  Microchip Technology first appeared on our watch list on March 20, 2010 (found here) at the price of $28.25.  Afterwards, MCHP rose as high as $41 by May 10, 2011.  On July 15, 2011, after the stock declined nearly -22% from the high, we suggested that MCHP would be too hard to ignore at such a high dividend yield. This recommendation was within 9% of the current 1-year low.  We will become serial acquirers of MCHP as the stock price declines further.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT), NVIDIA (NVDA), Altera (ALTR):   These chip stocks are runners-up in the chip stock sweepstakes.  We feels that accumulating of chip stocks with high ROA, ROE, profit margins, operating margins and low debt will prove highly profitable in both the intermediate and long term.

Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Nasdaq 100 Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from April 29, 2011 and have check their performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Apr-11 Apr-12 change
AKAM 34.43 32.59 -5.34%
TEVA 45.73 45.77 0.09%
CSCO 17.52 20.16 15.07%
URBN 31.47 28.96 -7.98%
MRVL 15.43 15.01 -2.72%
    Average -0.18%
       
Nasdaq 100     15.31%

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No two ways about it, the stocks on our watch list got hammered big time.  The Nasdaq 100 index gained 15.31% while our top five stocks went nowhere.  However, three of the five stocks our goal of at least 10% within a year.  TEVA gained 10% in the first month before declining –20%.  CSCO gained +10% in six months while AKAM gained +10% in 9 months.

2008 Transaction Overview

Below are all of my closed transactions for 2008 with the percentage realized gain or loss along with the percentage of the portfolio of each position. Closed positions are those that were done after the purchase of the stock took place. Therefore, purchases that took place in 2007 may have been close in 2008 while purchases in late 2008 may not have reflected a gain or loss until 2009. As an example, FDO was purchased in late December 2007 and sold late January 2008.
After transaction costs, the total return in the portfolio for 2008 was 14.35%. The dividend yield received on the account was 2.53%, with the dividend accounting for 17.62% of the total change in the account value. I am open to questions about the rational for selecting a particular stock at a given time during 2008. One thing that will be noticed about the differences between 2008 and 2009 is that 2009 has far fewer transactions.
Because this portfolio actually made money when the major indices lost close to 40% in 2008, I'm hoping to replicated this approach (mainly to avoid losing money in a market downturn.) I would appreciate any constructive insights or thoughts by you the reader. I'm hoping this will be an instructive moment for everyone involved. If you don't wish to post in the comment section then send me an email.I will be posting my transaction history for 2009 here shortly.

-Touc
Symbol
Close date
Total % Gain % of Portfolio
(FDO)
 
1/31/2008
 
10.65%
 
96.67%
(WSC)
 
2/11/2008
 
-3.93%
 
94.28%
(AIG)
 
2/28/2008
 
12.52%
 
82.65%
(CTAS)
 
3/13/2008
 
-3.81%
 
29.43%
(CDE)
 
3/13/2008
 
-12.42%
 
1.91%
(BSC)
 
3/14/2008
 
7.33%
 
26.10%
(HTX)
 
3/24/2008
 
1.73%
 
29.52%
(KGC)
 
3/24/2008
 
-16.73%
 
38.15%
(CTAS)
 
4/16/2008
 
-4.34%
 
31.11%
(GSS)
 
4/16/2008
 
-13.21%
 
1.77%
(NC)
 
7/23/2008
 
27.30%
 
32.11%
(MSA)
 
8/11/2008
 
19.02%
 
36.71%
(WIN)
 
8/14/2008
 
5.55%
 
27.27%
(BGG)
 
8/27/2008
 
1.27%
 
31.38%
(ANAT)
 
9/9/2008
 
-11.64%
 
28.26%
(EXPD)
 
9/9/2008
 
-5.51%
 
33.01%
(HPQ)
 
9/9/2008
 
115.03%
 
0.07%
(NSEC)
 
9/9/2008
 
-17.36%
 
3.08%
(TDS)
 
9/9/2008
 
-3.97%
 
38.10%
(NEM)
 
9/17/2008
 
3.27%
 
32.03%
(HL)
 
9/18/2008
 
5.70%
 
39.06%
(AIG)
 
9/23/2008
 
33.94%
 
38.27%
(ANAT)
 
9/29/2008
 
2.80%
 
29.25%
(ADM)
 
9/30/2008
 
-8.43%
 
20.77%
(WAG)
 
9/30/2008
 
-1.75%
 
44.09%
(TMR)
 
10/7/2008
 
-14.66%
 
11.36%
(NXG)
 
10/7/2008
 
-12.72%
 
11.40%
(AEM)
 
10/10/2008
 
-3.03%
 
15.58%
(FNM)
 
10/10/2008
 
-46.25%
 
7.14%
(GSS)
 
10/10/2008
 
-8.66%
 
12.11%
(JOF)
 
10/14/2008
 
2.34%
 
22.18%
(DOG)
 
10/15/2008
 
1.14%
 
43.23%
(AIG)
 
10/20/2008
 
-2.55%
 
66.35%
(BMI)
 
10/22/2008
 
-5.40%
 
35.38%
(EUM)
 
10/27/2008
 
5.26%
 
46.63%
(AEM)
 
10/28/2008
 
-4.08%
 
25.83%
(ABX)
 
10/28/2008
 
-2.92%
 
24.26%
(CTL)
 
10/31/2008
 
-9.93%
 
34.18%
(NC)
 
10/31/2008
 
-0.14%
 
43.42%
(NC)
 
11/7/2008
 
-12.16%
 
49.47%