Category Archives: Edson Gould

Synopsys Downside Targets

Since the beginning of the bull market in 2009, Synopsys Inc. (SNPS) is a stock that has perform in line with the Nasdaq Composite Index until early 2016.  Since February 2016, SNPS has accelerated well outside of the historical trend for the stock.  While there are many fundamental reasons for excessive gains in the last two years, the gains are still excessive and therefore should, at minimum, revert to the mean. 

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The challenge with reversion to the mean is that the stock price will likely overshoot on the downside.  With this in mind we have provided the Speed Resistance Lines indicating the conservative, mid range, and extreme price targets below.

Equifax: Downside Targets

Equifax is on a tear, to the downside.  Let’s see what happened to the stock in the last decline from an all-time high and see if there is any precedence for what we can expect going forward.

2002-2009

In the period from 2002 to 2009, the price of Equifax (EFX) increased +158% to a high of $41.22.  the decline that followed brought the stock to $17.80.

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Equifax fell to the conservative downside target ($34.18) and the mid range downside target ($23.96).  At the time, Equifax had an extreme downside target of ($13.74) but somehow didn’t manage to decline to that level, in spite of the fact that the housing crisis was co-opted by credit bureaus changing their standards which materially affected FICO scores.

“…the higher the credit score, the larger the increase in serious delinquency rates between 2005, 2006 and 2007. For example, for borrowers with the lowest credit scores (FICO scores between 500 and 600), the serious delinquency rate in 2007 was twice as large as in 2005—an increase of nearly 100 percent over the two years. For borrowers with the highest credit scores (FICO scores above 700), the serious delinquency rate in 2007 was almost four times as large as in 2005—an increase of nearly 300 percent. In addition, the serious delinquency rate in 2007 for the best-FICO group was almost the same as the rate in 2005 for the worst-FICO group.(Demyanyk, Yuliya. ‘Did Credit Scores Predict the Subprime Crisis?’ . Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. October 2008. link.).”

Bending of rules towards what was considered a prime rated credit score contributed significantly to lenders justifying the approval of home loans which later failed.  With all this in mind, Equifax and their competitors should have fallen much more than they did.  In fact, under normal conditions, at least one of the leading credit bureaus should have gone out of business.

Now, Equifax has declined based on a recent hack of their data systems.  The resultant decline in the stock price seems natural.  However, given the resilience  of the stock price after the housing crisis, we have to default to the view that the company won’t go out of business but will be severely impacted in the short-term.

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Activision Blizzard: Downside Targets

Review

The following is the pattern of price appreciation and decline for Activision Blizzard (ATVI) from 1993 to 2017 with the application of Speed Resistance Lines [SRL].

1993 to 1996

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In the period from 1993 to 1996, we can see that Activision Blizzard (ATVI) increase from $0.27 to as high as $1.50 or a gain of +455%.  The decline that followed saw ATVI fall –58%, achieving the conservative downside target of $0.80 and the mid range downside target of $0.65.  Although the chart doesn’t show it, ATVI did not rises above the 1995 level and subsequently fell as low as $0.43 by 2000 and ultimately achieving the extreme downside target of $0.50 in the process.

1999 to 2003

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In the period from 1999 to 2003, ATVI rose from $0.43 to as high as $3.96, a gain of +821%.  The resulting decline saw ATVI drop –63%.  In the chart above we do note a possible scenario that the SRL is run on the stock at the $3.12 peak, assuming you don’t know where the ultimate peak would be.  In such an instance, a conservative downside target of $1.83 and a mid range target of $1.44 were calculated. 

In the big scheme of things, the conservative downside target was achieved and the mid range target was one penny short of the mark in 2002. The point of this exercise is to see, what would have been the outcome if there was an error in the timing of the calculation of the downside targets.  As we shall see, these situations are all too real with outcomes that are generally surprising. However, in the immediate decline after the $3.12 price peak, the conservative downside target of $1.83 was $0.02 cents short of the $1.85 low set in September 2001.

2002 to 2009

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In the period from 2002 to 2009, ATVI increased in price by +1,084%.  The decline that followed brought the stock down as much as –56% before a recovery ensued.  Again, we have marked off the points where an error of early use of the SRL could have been applied.  In each of the three examples, the conservative downside target was achieved.  Suffice to say, in the case of the SRL and price peaks, the conservative downside target is a reasonable point of reference for consideration of ATVI.

2012 to 2017

The price action of ATVI has seen the stock price increase from a 2012 low of $10.08 to the 2017 high of $66.16.  The gain in the stock price has been +556%.  Our SRL has the following downside targets:

Adobe Systems: Downside Targets

In determining downside targets for Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE), we have applied Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] to the stock price over multiple periods of increase and subsequent decline. Starting in the 1986 to 1987 period, we see Adobe Systems Inc. increase from $0.21 to as high as $1.69.  In the decline that followed, the SRL indicated that the downside targets from the peak price of $1.69 were as follows:

  • $0.93
  • $0.75
  • $0.56

As seen in the chart below, ADBE declined as low as $0.46 from the $1.69 high.

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Much of the decline could have been attributed to a new company and speculative fervor for the stock taking it up +700%.  However, the inevitable decline was due and took investors down –72% before a recovery was seen in the stock price.  The stock achieved the conservative ($0.93), mid range ($0.75), and extreme ($0.56) downside targets.

In the period from 1987 to 1997, we see ADBE stock price increase from the $0.46 low to a high of $9.00, a whopping increase of +1,856%.  In the subsequent decline, ADBE fell “only” –58% from 1995 to 1996.  Adobe achieved only the conservative downside target ($3.97).

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In the period from 1998 to 2002, Adobe rose as much as +1,264%.  In the decline that followed, ADBE notched a –79% drop. In this instance, ADBE achieved all of the downside targets of $18.90 (conservative), $16.39 (mid range), and $13.88 (extreme).

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The next period that we track is from 2002 to 2008.  In that period, ADBE rose as much as +474%.  The decline that followed saw Adobe slide –66%.  Again, all downside targets achieved at $33.20 (conservative), $24.60 (mid range), and $16.00 (extreme).

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Worth noting is the fact that in all cases, Adobe Systems (ADBE) declined at least to the conservative downside target. Additionally, in 3 of the four cited examples, ADBE managed to fall to the extreme downside target as established by the Speed Resistance Lines.

Is the past a fair indication of what to expect in the future?  What do we believe the future to hold?

Our take on the future prospects for ADBE stock price are that we can reasonably expect the price to decline to the conservative downside target in accordance with past declines.  However, expecting that ADBE will achieve the extreme downside target is overly ambitious at present.   After all, ADBE is a mature, well-established company that dominates several categories in their respective product lines (by a wide margin as compared to the next closest competitor).

With this in mind, after an increase in price of +881%, from the 2009 low, we have outlined the Speed Resistance Lines from 2009 to 2017.

Swiss National Bank: Downside Targets

In a posting on ZeroHedge there is mention of Swiss National Bank (SNBN) and the “bubble” that seems to be percolating in the stock.  We don’t know whether or not the price of the stock is in a bubble.  However, what does resonate with us is any sign of a parabolic rise in price.  In the case of SNBN, we believe that we can attribute Speed Resistance Lines (SRL) that are consistent with viable downside targets.

First, whenever applying SRLs, we like to find out if there has been any precedence on the matter. In the case of SNBN, we have obtained data from Yahoo!Quotes (ChartIQ), which goes back to 1995.  It is just our luck that there is a prior period when SNBN has a similar rise and subsequent decline.

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Considering that there is a reasonable amount of precedent in the stock price movement of SNBN in the period from 1995 to 1997, we have taken the liberty in projecting what the current level of price increase could result in, if history is any guide. 

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