Category Archives: Canadian Dividend Watch List

Canadian Dividend Watch List: January 2018

Below is the performance of the January 22, 2017 Canadian Dividend Watch List:

symbol name %change
MRU.TO MetroInc. -1.41%
SJ.TO Stella-Jones Inc. 24.32%
FFH.TO Fairfax Financial Holdings 9.39%
PJC-A.TO The Jean Coutu Group 19.95%
ACD.TO Accord Financial Corp. 2.22%
EMA.TO Emera Incorporated 0.91%
ET.TO Evertz Technologies Limited 6.65%
BCE.TO BCE Inc. -1.58%
CUF-UN.TO Cominar REIT -0.48%

The average gain for the watch list was +6.66% while the gain for the Toronto Stock Exchange over the same period was +4.98%.  When broken down to the respective fundamental categories by only choosing the top three stocks, we get the following returns:

high p/b 1.22%
high yield 1.53%
high p/e 2.91%
low p/b 3.71%
watch list 6.66%
low p/e 8.69%
low yield 10.77%
   
TSX 4.98%

As we said in our December 13, 2017 Dogs of the TSX posting, “Note that all of the low categories performed better while all the high categories performed the worst.  This has been borne out in the few Canadian Dividend Watch List performance reviews that we’ve done so far.”  It appears that anyone buying Canadian stocks using the high yield methodology is underperforming when there are better alternatives.

Below is the January Dividend Watch List along with the our update on the Dogs of the TSX 60, the results are instructive.

Dogs of the TSX 60

Below is our outline of the stocks that are part of the Toronto Stock Exchange TSX 60 and the rudimentary strategy of selecting the stocks based on the Dogs of the Dow investment approach.

Canadian Dividend Watch List: November 2017

Performance Review

Below is the 1-year performance of our Canadian Dividend Watch List from November 18, 2016 to November 10, 2017 as compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange.

symbol Name total return
EMP-A.TO Empire Company Limited 46.23%
CCA.TO Cogeco Communications Inc. 39.05%
NWC.TO North West Company Inc. 36.28%
AX-UN.TO Artis REIT 30.72%
D-UN.TO Dream Office REIT 29.71%
GS.TO Gluskin Sheff + Associates 22.87%
ET.TO Evertz Technologies Limited 22.09%
FFH.TO Fairfax Financial Holdings 18.04%
EMA.TO Emera Incorporated 13.04%
CUF-UN.TO Cominar REIT 11.40%
ACD.TO Accord Financial Corp. 10.17%
REF-UN.TO Canadian REIT 6.05%
MRU.TO Metro Inc. 4.00%
REI-UN.TO Riocan REIT 3.39%
BEI-UN.TO Boardwalk REIT 2.72%
ENGH.TO Enghouse Systems Limited -3.90%
  average % change 18.24%
     
TSX Toronto Stock Exchange 8.18%

While the entire list averaged a sizable gain above the TSX, the top three in the respective value categories had the following results:

high yield 23.95%
low yield 6.05%
high p/e 3.95%
low p/e 14.81%
high p/b 7.66%
low p/b 14.95%

One stock that we considered was Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO).  At the time, we said the following:

“Our recommendation for FFH.TO, for investors willing to accept the risk, is a three stage purchase plan with the first purchase taking place at $581 and below with 50% of intended funds.  The second and third purchases at $479.95 and $363.52 with 25% of remaining funds, respectively.”

Since that time, FFH.TO declined below $581 with an ultimate low of $557.  Below is the updated review of FFH.TO:

image

Continuing with Dow Theory, the expectation should be that exceeding the 50% Principle (from 41 to 51) means that there is a good chance that FFH.TO will go to the previous all-time high in the Altimeter.  However, the January 2017 dividend reduction could be an indication of difficult times ahead.  The highlighted double-top and exceeding the 50% Principle (under the assumption of buying below $581) means that FFH.TO’s minimum gain of +18% in the last year exceeds normal expectations.

Canadian Dividend Watch List: October 2017

Below is the list of Canadian dividend stocks that currently, or in the past, had a history of consecutive dividend increases that are at compelling prices or values.  We include analyst estimates for the coming year.

Canadian Dividend Watch List: September 2017

Performance Review

Below are the actual returns from our Canadian Dividend Watch List dated September 2016.

image

The companies are ranked based on their expected performance from worst (on the left) to best (on the right), click on the chart to see how the analysts expected the stocks to perform last year. 

The standout performers from the analyst estimates were Dream Office REIT (D-UN.TO), Cogeco Inc. (CGO.TO), and Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN.TO).  These stock met or exceeded the analyst estimates.  The stocks that underperformed analyst expectation were Imperial Oil (IMO.TO), Cominar REIT (CUF-UN.TO), and Riocan REIT (REI-UN.TO).

As compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange 1-year return of +4.67%, the watch list from last year gained +6.53%. Below is our watch list and analyst projections.