Category Archives: Bitcoin

Bitcoin: January 2018

On December 22, 2017, we said the following of Bitcoin:

  • “We believe that there is going to be limited upside in the near term.”
  • “We think that the conservative downside target ($6,884.31) will be achieved before a new high is seen.”
  • “In all prior booms, the subsequent bust AVERAGED –70% (data found here).”

Below is an updated review of Bitcoin and our thoughts for the price going forward.

Bitcoin December 2017: Downside Targets

“A mob’s a monster; heads enough, but no brains.” –Benjamin Franklin

Bitcoin Downside Target

“The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘this time is different.” –John Templeton

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Bitcoin: November 2017

On October 13, 2017, when Bitcoin was quoted at $5,640, we said the following:

“We are throwing in the towel on taking the $7,166.29 [our upside target] figure, and any future upside targets that go uncorrected to the tune of –50% or more, as something we can feel confident is worth the speculation.”

Our upside target of $7,166.29 has come and gone.  Now comes our updated downside targets for those mindful of the risks.

Bitcoin: Upside Targets Achieved, Now What?

If anyone has managed to follow our work on the topic of Bitcoin, we can only lay claim to the October 7, 2014 call for “Speculators to Unite” when the cryptocurrency was priced at $334.09.  At the time, we said the following:

“…bitcoin is worth the plunge.  Based on the revised price peak of $1,147.25, bitcoin has a conservative upside target price of $723.34 and an extreme upside target of $1,446.68.”

Since October 7, 2014, we have issued revised upside targets and downside targets that have been generally within the range of expectation.  Our last published upside target for Bitcoin was $6,260.91 as seen in the September 5, 2017 posting titled “Bitcoin: Setting the Stage.”  The graphical representation of the price of Bitcoin since October 7, 2014 is staggering and worth a refresher view.

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At this point, as Bitcoin sits within 7% of the last published target, we cannot take seriously the updated target that has been generated ($7,166.29) based on our Speed Resistance Line calculations.  We are throwing in the towel on taking the $7,166.29 figure, and any future upside targets that go uncorrected to the tune of –50% or more, as something we can feel confident is worth the speculation.

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