Category Archives: Bitcoin

Bitcoin Review

On January 12, 2017, after Bitcoin achieved our prior downside target of $772.12, we said the following:

“Those who wish to speculate on Bitcoin should assess the risks and consider buy[ing] at [the] current level.”

Anyone who bought based on our work should have known that on January 1, 2017, we had the following upside targets:

  • $1,158.18 (conservative)
  • $1,737.26 (mid range)
  • $2,316.35 (extreme)

What is important about our upside targets, issued on January 1, 2017, is that we emphasized a downside assessment was necessary after a parabolic run-up.  We expected that the price would need to experience a large decline before any material rise could ensue.  Shortly afterwards, on January 12, 2017, our downside targets were met.

On May 10, 2017, Bitcoin has achieved a new high of $1,750.  If this level can be sustained, we think that the extreme upside target of $2,316.35 is possible.  However, we have to acknowledge the downside targets that come with a parabolic increase.

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Serious speculators (as opposed to investors) in Bitcoin should consider the inevitable decline that is to come as a reaction to the parabolic rise.  Yes, there is a good chance that our target of $2,316.35 will be achieved.  However, if, as a speculator, you have enjoyed some or all of the run-up since our January 12, 2017 recommendation, then you probably want to be able to enjoy it.  We recommend selling now and watch for the ascending downside targets.

Bitcoin Review

Below is a list of Bitcoin commentary that we believe is instructive in highlighting the valued of analysis (fundamental, technical or otherwise).  The current run up in price was highlighted in our article titled “Bitcoin: Speculators Unite” published on October 7, 2014

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Our only third-party proof of the October 7, 2014 article can be found on SeekingAlpha.com under the stocktalks section under the symbol COIN.  For reasons unknown, although the article is shown to have been posted an error appears at the provided link.  Some of the other Bitcoin articles posted to our site can be found on SeekingAlpha.com at the blog section of our page.

Bitcoin: Hits Our 2015 Upside Target and 2017 Downside Targets

On January 1, 2017, we said the following:

“The $1,051 upside target appears to be within reach as the digital currency is currently trading around the $1,006 level.  It is at this time that we need reassess the prospects for Bitcoin both on the upside and the downside.  Starting with the latter, we have posted the downside targets based on the most recent price indicated.

“As we’ve indicated in the past, the downside targets are paramount as they are the best assessment of the risk a speculator or investor might be taking when they decide to take the plunge.  As highlighted on the chart above, the downside targets are as follows:

  • $772.12 (conservative)
  • $553.75 (mid range)
  • $335.39 (extreme)

“Anyone considering being involved in Bitcoin for speculative or investment purposes should readily accept that the extreme downside targets are always in play.  This means that if you’re going to be involved in this currency you should always keep a portion of funds available for the prospect of the downside risk or accept that all funds invested could take a severe decline.”

Bitcoin Targets

On November 4, 2015, we said the following:

“It has taken some time but Bitcoin appears to be on the rebound.”

“If the current run-up is anything like those in the past, $1,051 could be a relatively small number.  However, each of the indicated upside targets must be achieved first before we can start giving estimates of how far beyond $1,051 Bitcoin could go.”

The $1,051 upside target appears to be within reach as the digital currency is currently trading around the $1,006 level.  It is at this time that we need reassess the prospects for Bitcoin both on the upside and the downside.  Starting with the latter, we have posted the downside targets based on the most recent price indicated.

Downside Targets

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As we’ve indicated in the past, the downside targets are paramount as they are the best assessment of the risk a speculator or investor might be taking when they decide to take the plunge.  As highlighted on the chart above, the downside targets are as follows:

  • $772.12 (conservative)
  • $553.75 (mid range)
  • $335.39 (extreme)

Anyone considering being involved in Bitcoin for speculative or investment purposes should readily accept that the extreme downside targets are always in play.  This means that if you’re going to be involved in this currency you should always keep a portion of funds available for the prospect of the downside risk or accept that all funds invested could take a severe decline.

Upside Targets

Bitcoin Targets

On November 4, 2015 we posted a chart providing downside targets of $350.33 and $245.83 when Bitcoin was priced at $408.74.  By November 11, 2015, Bitcoin had declined to $312.58 and we thought that there would be a continuation of the decline to $245.83.  The reality was that Bitcoin never went below the November 11th low. 

We were wrong about Bitcoin declining to the mid-range target, however, with the recent ascent in the price, we now need to focus on the conservative downside target based on the high of $538.15.  Below we’ve outlined the conservative and mid-range downside targets.

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As the price of Bitcoin increases we will have to adjust the target.  For now, we’re looking to the $388.51 level based on the work on Edson Gould.