The Graham Ratio and Application

The core of value investing is to obtain an investment for less than its worth. Professional investors will typically focus on the price to earnings (P/E) ratio which compares the current share price with its per share earnings. Although this is a good gauge, more than one ratio should be considered when assessing an investment. Students of value investing should also be familiar with price to book (P/B) ratio. This ratio (P/B) compares the current share price to the current shareholder equity.

In the book The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham highlights a key concept which combined the two ratios [P/E and P/B] as a gauge on the valuation of a company. These combined ratios are known as the Graham ratio. The computation is elementary, simply multiply the P/E ratio with the P/B ratio. If the product is less than 22.5, the company may be of good value. This thesis is highlighted in Chapter 14 – Stock Selection for the Defensive Investor of The Intelligent Investor. We find this concept to be so compelling that we've decided to back test this ratio against our watch lists from 2012.

We started with our U.S. Dividend Watch Lists from May 11, 2012 through August 24, 2012 and compared the share price after two years. Because many companies appeared on our list multiple times, we selected only the instances with the least amount of return. We then split the list into two sections, one with companies that meet the Graham ratio and others that fail. We believe the results are distinct and worth reviewing.

Each list contains 31 companies. The list of companies meeting the Graham ratio criteria of less than 22.5 had an average return of +45%. The list of companies with a Graham ratio higher than 22.5 had an average return of +32%. As a result, by simply applying the Graham ratio criteria to our list, we were able to enhance investment returns by +13%. The result can be seen in the table below:

Meet Graham Ratio? Yes   Meet Graham Ratio? No
         
Company % Change   Company % Change
1st Source Corp. 45%   Air Products & Chemicals 52%
ABM Industries 30%   Becton, Dickinson and 53%
American National Insurance 53%   Bemis Co Inc 37%
Applied Materials 90%   C.H. Robinson Worldwide -4%
Archer Daniels Midland 82%   California Water Service 20%
Arrow Financial Corp. 7%   Carbo Ceramics 59%
Bank of Montreal 22%   Cardinal Health 61%
Clorox 27%   ConAgra Foods 24%
ConocoPhillips 45%   Connecticut Water Service 21%
Energen Corp. 119%   Erie Indemnity Company 9%
Energy Transfer Partners L P 34%   Expeditors International 6%
First Financial Corp. 10%   Hill-Rom Holdings 51%
First Niagara Financial Group -1%   HJ Heinz 36%
Goldman Sachs Group 73%   Hormel Foods Corp. 61%
Harte-Hanks 4%   John Wiley & Sons CL 'A' 21%
Hill-Rom Holdings 52%   Johnson & Johnson 57%
IBERIABANK Corp. 34%   Matthews International Corp. 28%
Johnson Controls Inc 90%   McDonald's Corp. 5%
Legg Mason 100%   Middlesex Water Company 11%
Matthews International Corp. 34%   National Fuel Gas 63%
McGrath RentCorp. 45%   New Jersey Resources Corp. 14%
Mercury General Corp. 34%   Owens & Minor 16%
Murphy Oil Corporation 51%   Pitney Bowes Inc 95%
PP&L Corporation 15%   Procter & Gamble 26%
RLI Corp. -32%   SJW Corp. 15%
S&T BanCorp. 41%   South Jersey Industries 14%
Telephone and Data Systems, Inc 25%   Sysco Corp. 33%
Tompkins Financial Corp. 26%   Tootsie Roll Industries Inc 25%
UniSource Energy Corporation 66%   United Technologies Corp. 56%
Unum Group 54%   Weyco Group 12%
Walgreen 107%   WGL Holdings 3%
         
Number of Companies Average   Number of Companies Average
31 45%   31 32%

While it is not our goal to base a final decision to buy a dividend paying stock on a single ratio, we find the overall concept a useful means for identifying ideal investment candidates.  Keep in mind that Warren Buffett said in his 2013 shareholder meeting that he does not invest based on a simple ratio.

Warren Buffett prefers management first and financial considerations second. Our selection of consecutive dividend increasing stocks partially addresses the issue of management since executives must consider whether they can grow the company after "giving away" some portion of the company's cash. Successful and efficient managers are those who can increase profits and dividends without harming the sustainability of the business.

For the Graham ratio stocks that passed the test (22.5 or less), even if the stocks with triple digit returns were excluded ( 3 stocks), they still exceeded the return of those that failed the Graham ratio test (+34% v. +32%).  It should also be noticed that while there were two stocks that passed the Graham ratio test with negative returns, the overall list of stocks that passed the Graham ratio review still outperformed, on average.

Clearly, the Graham ratio isn't a cure-all for the investment selection process. However, we believe adding the Graham ratio to the selection process could improve the overall returns on investment.

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