Canadian Dividend Watch List: July 19, 2013

This is a list of Canadian dividend stocks that currently, or in the past, had a history of consecutive dividend increases. For those wishing to find the most complete fundamental information on these companies, we recommend visiting one of Canada’s leading financial websites, the Financial Post (found here). However, Yahoo!Finance probably has the better long-term charts and historical dividend data.

symbol name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from yr low
D-UN.TO Dundee REIT 31.77 - 2.9 7.05% 0.96 0.00%
REI-UN.TO Riocan Real Estate Investment Trust 25.11 6.39 3.89 5.61% 1.13 0.12%
CUF-UN.TO Cominar REIT 20.83 6.41 2.94 6.91% 0.95 0.29%
CAR-UN.TO Canadian Apartment Properties REIT 22.31 16.88 4.72 5.15% 0.9 0.36%
CWT-UN.TO Calloway REIT 26.09 237.18 7.22 5.93% 1.1 0.58%
AX-UN.TO Artis Real Estate Investment Trust 15.1 4.95 2.95 7.15% 0.89 1.00%
IFC.TO Intact Financial Corporation 57.53 13.44 4.3 3.05% 1.7 1.93%
FCR.TO First Capital Realty Inc. 17.79 9.99 1.72 4.72% 1.12 3.13%
FTS.TO Fortis Inc. 32.34 17.87 1.8 3.83% 1.51 5.34%
BEI-UN.TO Boardwalk Real Estate Investment Trust 60.3 5.11 11.39 3.28% 1.01 5.66%
EMA.TO Emera Inc. 33.75 16.46 2.07 4.14% 2.48 6.03%
LB.TO Laurentian Bank of Canada 45.05 9.35 4.8 4.44% 0.99 6.22%
TRP.TO TransCanada Corp. 46.77 23.74 1.97 3.93% 2.08 8.36%
FTT.TO Finning International Inc. 22.68 11.57 2.02 2.69% 2.42 8.46%
NA.TO National Bank Canadian Equity SP 78.48 9.02 8.63 4.43% 1.81 9.35%
CM.TO Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce 77.15 9.58 8.05 4.97% 1.99 9.51%

Watch List Summary

Many of the companies on this most recent list are in the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector.  We recommend careful examination of the listed companies in the REIT arena as they have less upside potential than is ideal.   As an example, the average upside to the prior peak is 12% above the present level.  As Dow Theory indicates, investors should expect only half of the upside potential based on the prior peak.  This suggests that capital appreciation of +6% is the most that can be garnered in the short-term.  A total return of +10% can be achieved if the dividend yield is 4% or greater.  However, we caution against seeking high yield and favor strong balances sheets instead.  A good starting point to determine the relative financial strength of a company is the payout ratio.

Watch List Performance Review

Our review of the top five stocks from the July 25, 2012 (found here) Canadian Dividend Watch List.  To our surprise, the performance of the watch list was outstanding as seen below:

Symbol
Name 2012 2013 % change
IAG.TO Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services 20.74 42.37 104.29%
PWF.TO Power Financial Corporation 24.2 32.95 36.16%
IGM.TO IGM Financial Inc. 39.28 47.31 20.44%
SJR-B.TO Shaw Communications, Inc. 19.58 25.03 27.83%
TCL-A.TO Transcontinental Inc. 9.42 12.55 33.23%
Average 44.39%

The chart below graphically represents the performance of the top five:

image

On the July 25, 2012 watch list, we ran Edson Gould’s Altimeter on Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services (IAG.TO).  at the time we said the following:

“Our view is that $16.90 and below are appropriate levels to start acquiring IAG.  Even at the current price, the dividend of 4.60% allows for a slight downside cushion provided it is understood that the stock must be held for 1 year.”

IAG.TO has exceeded our estimates to the upside by doubling in price.  With this kind of performance, we recommend that investors sell the principal.  Leaving aside the performance of IAG.TO, the average gain of the remaining four stocks would have been +29.42% as compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange gain of +10.37% over the same period of time.

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