Nasdaq 100 Watch List: April 26, 2013

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from yr low
BIDU Baidu, Inc. 85.02 17.87 4.76 - 7.77 2.46%
EXPD Expeditors International. 35.42 22.56 1.57 1.6 3.61 3.57%
FFIV F5 Networks, Inc. 74.2 21.2 3.5 - 4.24 5.10%
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical 38.55 17.13 2.25 2.8 1.44 5.24%
ALTR Altera Corp. 31.2 18.14 1.72 1.3 3.16 5.44%
GRMN Garmin Ltd. 34.72 12.58 2.76 5.1 1.96 6.77%
ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. 486.76 28.57 17.04 - 5.16 6.94%
AVGO Avago Technologies Limited 32.11 14.27 2.25 2.4 3.19 8.11%
AAPL Apple Inc. 417.205 9.46 44.11 2.7 3.01 8.34%
WFM Whole Foods Market, Inc. 88.61 33.43 2.65 0.9 4.62 8.87%
CTXS Citrix Systems, Inc. 61.8 33.23 1.86 - 3.76 9.25%

Watch List Summary

Baidu (BIDU) has topped our list this week.  Despite having “unfettered” access to the Chinese market for search, the stock continues its long slide from the high price of $165.


Apparently, in the controlled environment of internet search in China, competitors are gaining ground in terms of market share.  Since Google (GOOG) exited the search arena in China on April 10, 2010, the stock price performance of Google and Baidu has been exactly the same, albeit through opposite routes as indicated in the chart below.


There is at least one lesson in this reversal of fortune for Baidu and the departure from China by Google as it relates to the stock price, the largest market in the world is not necessary for a stock price to rise.  In fact, it could be considered that if you’re in the largest market, after having tapped into every other market on the planet, then you’re probably at the end of the line in terms of growth.  This brings us to the view that Baidu has some opportunity for growth since its global reach is limited, for now.

In the February 15, 2013 Value Line Investment Survey, fair value estimates for Baidu are:

  • 2010: $34.60
  • 2011: $68.00
  • 2012: $104.00
  • 2013: $124.00
  • 2015-2017: $210.00

The Speed Resistance Lines for Baidu are very compelling at this time as shown below:


The conservative downside target of $93.43 has been achieved and we are now sitting at the extreme downside target of $54.79. All indications, based on the SRL, are that Baidu is worth considering in a two stage purchase plan, once at the current level and again at $67 or lower.

Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the Nasdaq 100 Watch List, we have taken the top 5 stocks from April 27, 2012 (found here). The top 5 companies from the watch list are provided below with the closing price from April 27, 2012 to April 26, 2013.

Company 2012 2013 % Change
CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide  59.02 58.44 -0.98%
FSLR First Solar, Inc. 18.35 44.08 140.22%
EXPD Expeditors Int’l 39.90 35.42 -11.23%
CTRP Int’l 21.66 22.22 2.59%
EA Electronic Arts Inc. 15.32 17.88 16.71%
Average 29.46%
NDX Nasdaq 100 Index 3420.80 3747.15 9.54%

As can been seen in the table above, First Solar (FSLR) is the stock that carried the performance for the top 5 stocks.  If FSLR were excluded the gain for the top 5 if bought and held for the full year would have been +1.42%.  To be honest, we would not have bought FSLR at that time but this explains why we run these numbers.  We want to see how well or poorly an investor would do if they knew nothing about the names and simply bought the top five stocks.  Four of the top five stocks gained at least +10% with Expeditors Intl (EXPD) being the only stock to fall short of that mark.


The three stocks that we identified to be of interest from the April 27, 2012 watch list had the following performance in the last year as compared the Nasdaq 100 Index.


All three of the stocks, Symantec (SYMC), Infosys (INFY) and Electronic Arts (EA) hit the first estimated downside target before rising above the watch list price.  All three of the stocks gained at least +15% within the year.

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