U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 11, 2013

Below are the 27 companies on our U.S. Dividend Watch List that are within 11% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol Name Price % Yr Low P/E EPS (ttm) Dividend Yield Payout Ratio
MSFT Microsoft Corporation 26.83 2.17% 14.50 1.85 0.92 3.43% 50%
NJR New Jersey Resources 39.53 2.65% 17.73 2.23 1.60 4.05% 72%
WEYS Weyco Group 22.76 3.41% 14.78 1.54 0.68 2.99% 44%
FDS FactSet Research Systems 88.87 4.09% 20.96 4.24 1.24 1.40% 29%
ED Consolidated Edison 55.91 4.25% 14.67 3.81 2.42 4.33% 64%
SON Sonoco Products 30.23 5.66% 16.98 1.78 1.20 3.97% 67%
TEG Integrys Energy Group Inc 53.92 6.14% 17.01 3.17 2.72 5.04% 86%
FDO Family Dollar Stores 56.44 6.39% 15.72 3.59 0.84 1.49% 23%
CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers 56.98 6.76% 15.07 3.78 1.92 3.37% 51%
SCG SCANA Corporation 46.49 7.32% 14.95 3.11 1.98 4.26% 64%
WGL WGL Holdings 38.70 7.62% 14.28 2.71 1.60 4.13% 59%
PRK Park National Corp. 65.62 7.93% 14.88 4.41 3.76 5.73% 85%
MCY Mercury General Corp. 38.91 8.05% 9.98 3.90 2.45 6.30% 63%
NWN Northwest Natural Gas 44.36 8.17% 19.63 2.26 1.82 4.10% 81%
LKFN Lakeland Financial Corp. 25.42 8.31% 11.88 2.14 0.68 2.68% 32%
IBM IBM 194.45 8.44% 13.98 13.91 3.40 1.75% 24%
PPL PP&L Corporation 28.95 8.51% 10.41 2.78 1.44 4.97% 52%
WABC Westamerica BanCorp. 43.96 8.54% 14.65 3.00 1.48 3.37% 49%
CBU Community Bank System 27.60 8.75% 14.01 1.97 1.08 3.91% 55%
AJG Arthur J Gallagher & 35.59 8.77% 21.18 1.68 1.36 3.82% 81%
VVC Vectren Corp. 30.02 9.32% 15.16 1.98 1.42 4.73% 72%
YUM Yum! Brands 66.87 9.53% 19.67 3.40 1.34 2.00% 39%
MCD McDonald's Corp. 91.73 10.11% 17.27 5.31 3.08 3.36% 58%
OMI Owens & Minor 29.71 10.16% 17.37 1.71 0.88 2.96% 51%
FNB F.N.B. Corp. 10.90 10.21% 14.16 0.77 0.48 4.40% 62%
AROW Arrow Financial Corp. 24.94 10.36% 13.63 1.83 1.00 4.01% 55%
PNY Piedmont Natural Gas 31.50 10.49% 18.98 1.66 1.20 3.81% 72%
27 Companies

Watch List Review

Topping our list this week is a new addition to our dividend database, Microsoft (MSFT).   It also appears on our Nasdaq 100 watch list as well.  The company’s inability to capitalized on the mobile space seems to be the reason why the stock is trading at discount.

Technically, MSFT has been range bound between $26.50 to $27.50 since November.  The bottoming process has begun in our view and as noted in the Nasdaq watch list commentary, we recommend buying in two stages.

Fundamentally, MSFT has been raising their dividend at an astonishing rate of 20% annually since 2008 ($0.11 to $0.23).  Book value rose at 16% in the same time frame.  Earnings is the major factor in the name which has risen only 1.7% annually since 2008.  The collapse of EPS (see chart below) in 2012 may create an opportunity to build on existing holdings.

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Utility companies have been the lagging industry and this week is no exception.  Two companies remained in the top five, New Jersey Resources (NJR) and Consolidated Edison (ED).  Both companies yield exceed 4% but payout ratio is somewhat elevated at more than 60%.  A surge in interest rates could significantly affect the short-term prospects of companies in the utility sector.

Top Five Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from January 13, 2012 and have check their performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2012 Price 2013 Price % change
TR Tootsie Roll Industries Inc 23.63 26.16 10.71%
BCR CR Bard 85.45 103.13 20.69%
JW-A John Wiley & Sons CL 'A' 44.59 40.25 -9.73%
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide 66.73 64.54 -3.28%
WAG Walgreen 32.63 39.10 19.83%
Average 7.64%
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 12,422.06 13,488.43 8.58%
SPX S&P 500 1,289.09 1,472.05 14.19%

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Our watch list performance didn’t keep up with the gains in the market due to major declines in John Wiley (JW-A). However, four of the five companies reached the +10% mark in less than one year.  C.H. Robinson (CHRW) was the worst performer by falling -20% from the word "go."

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