Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.
|Symbol||Name||Price||P/E||EPS||Yield||P/B||dividend||payout ratio||% from low|
|WCRX||Warner Chilcott plc||11.3||7.73||1.46||4.4||-4.33||0.5||34.25%||2.26%|
|DLTR||Dollar Tree, Inc.||38.65||15.53||2.49||-||5.61||-||-||4.12%|
|BBBY||Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.||58.18||13.52||4.3||-||3.34||-||-||4.68%|
|MCHP||Microchip Technology Inc.||31.7||30.16||1.05||4.5||3.12||1.41||134.29%||9.61%|
Watch List Summary
A stock that we’re interested in is Dollar Tree (DLTR). Dollar Tree has had a substantial run in the last five years. As the price of the stock has recently peaked at $56.34 on June 20, 2012, the decline has almost been as substantial.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) has declined -31% from the most recent peak. The highlight of this stock is the ability to remain in a rising trend from the low in January 2008 in spite of the -40% decline in the general stock market.
From a technical standpoint, the stock has established a significant support level at $37.71. So far, the stock has the potential to increase from the current level to at least $42.18 level on the upside. However, falling below the support level means that the stock could easily achieve the conservative downside target of $25.88 (extreme downside target is $18.78).
A decline to $25.88 is equal to –54%. Such a decline would not be unusual as it would only be slightly more than the decline in the stock from July 2007 at $14.74 to January 2008 at $7.41.
According to Dow Theory, Dollar Tree has the following downside targets:
$31.72 (downside fair value)
More research and a potential purchase should take place at $25.88 and below.
Watch List Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the Nasdaq 100 Watch List, we have taken the stocks from our list of December 16, 2011 (found here) and have checked their performance one year later. The companies on that list are provided below with the closing prices from December 16, 2011 to December 12, 2012.
|BMC||BMC Software, Inc.||33.17||40.8||23.00%|
|VMED||Virgin Media Inc.||20.95||35.61||69.98%|
|NDX||Nasdaq 100 Index||2238.18||2674.57||19.50%|
Overall, the watch list slightly exceed the Nasdaq 100 index by +4.40%. All stocks achieved gains of +20% within 5 months. Virgin Media (VMED) exceeded our expectations by a wide margin. In fact, the stock only went up after being on the watch list by rising +69% in the last year.