When William Peter Hamilton 17 years ago, wrote the first book on the Dow theory he called The Stock Market Barometer, not because of the theory's value in forecasting the course of stock prices, but because of its value as a barometer of business. Most of the literature on the theory written since then has concentrated on technical studies of its method of identifying stock market trends, both bull and bear, shortly after their beginning.
In this book Rhea returns to Hamilton's original thesis, at which he pounded away steadily in his editorials in The Wall Street Journal and in comments in Barron's up to the time of his death in 1929. But whereas Hamilton had to depend on observation, Rhea has contributed to this subject the first detailed comparison of all the Dow theory bull and bear market signals back to 1897 with the movements of Barron's business index over the same period.
Rhea is well known as author of Dow Theory Comment, comprising air mail letters attempting to forecast stock and business trends; The Dow Theory, an introduction to the theory together with a complete collection of all of Hamilton's discussions of the price movement; and The Story of the Averages, a play-by-play history of every bull and bear market signal the averages have given since their inception and of the course of the market over the whole period. It is from this work that the Dow theory signals used in the new book are taken.
Business Book of the Week. Barron's. October 31, 1938. page 9
Charles H. Dow, Father of Value Investing
It's All About the Dividends
Dow Theory: Buying in Scales
How to Avoid Losses
When Dividends are Canceled
Cyclical and Secular Markets
Inflation Proof Myth
What is Fair Value?
Issues with P-E Ratios
Beware of Gold Dividends
Gold Standard Myth
Lagging Gold Stocks?
No Sophisticated Investors
Dollar down, Gold up?
Problems with Market Share
Aim for Annualized Returns
Anatomy of Bear Market Trade
Don’t Use Stop Orders
How to Value Earnings
Low Yields, Big Gains
Set Limits, Gain More
Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes
Why the oil price is falling
How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared
Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain
Swiss National Bank Starts Negative
Tice: Crash is Coming...Although
More on Edson Gould (PDF)
Schiller's CAPE ratio is wrong
Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s (PDF)
Quick Link Archive
Dow P/E: 21.36
Dow Yield: 2.33%
S&P 500 P/E: 24.89
S&P 500 Yield: 1.97%
10-Year Note Yield: 2.50%
30-Year Note Yield: 3.11%
WSJ March 17, 2017
DOW VALUE WATCH
Dow Fair Value (50% Principle):
2015 High: 20,125.58
2009 Low: 6,469.95
Fair Value: 13,297.77
+33.75% above fair value
as of February 5, 2017
Index Additions and Deletions
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